Member Info for NigeCo

Taking a look at the analysts FY 2024 earnings forecasts...... IMO the bar has been set very low, all things considered. Reasons to be optimistic.....?

Expected Revenue for FY 2024 £832.1m (2023 £1.011.5bln)

2024 Q1 £210.2m (2023 £261.7)

2024 Q2 £212.3m (2023 £255.4m)

TOTAL H1...... £422.5m

So if Q3 results are above their remaining quarters average of £204.8m the analysts will have to upgrade S4 FY earnings, with S4's strongest annual quarter being Q4. I'm expecting stronger results than Q2 of £212.3m. My stab in the dark for Q3 is £225m. I could be wrong. JMO. Time will tell.

Sir Martin on AI, Google, and Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCizT5szQp4

Courtesy of RackersTheDon a poster over on ADVFN.

https://i.postimg.cc/zfxT78fL/SFOR-ownership.png

"Sorrell rebuffed the offers because in his view, they undervalued the company and Stagwell wasn’t a good strategic fit."

According to the WSJ back in March of this year.

https://archive.is/xIgUA

Sir Martin Sorrell on the Future of Advertising

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0xhwrasTek

How Martin Sorrell (Founder of WPP and S4 Capital) Sees the Future of Marketing + Life Lessons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuIEml4qqkM

"Not sure it makes any difference as they need to pick up the phone and talk to SMS.

Market is irrelevant"

Morning Rock, I would have to agree, only SMS valuation matters, he holds all the cards. It was reported in the WSJ that Stagwell had made offers, with one said to be around $700m or 96p per share. Sorrell said that he had received offers that was not credible.

In August Sorrell was asked what he valued S4 at, he gave his valuation based on 10X & 20X EBITDA minus about £200m Net Debt = £800m to £1.8bln. 130p - 293p per share. Sorrell holds all the cards with his golden share. I very much doubt that S4 will be taken out on the cheap. Sorrell hasn't worked 7 years setting S4 up for nothing. Even at 130p per share I doubt he would take it. He will now believe that with all past M&A cash payments behind S4, that we can now start and move forward. S4 need to recover the falling revenue, get back to growth, report a profit, and target a share price of 200p. He may then well look to do a deal/merger. JMO.

Ok, thanks for your reply.

Morning JBCo, do you have a link to the Deutsche Banks S4 comments? Thanks.

A few large trades....

258,725 Buy

128,025 Buy

128,631 Buy

100,000 Sell

1msn..... "Put my stop in at 35p.. then I'm out.. not sure where the floor is at the moment"

1msn, do you still own 2m shares?

JBC0...."I am guessing the 36p troll on here wants to accumulate here? :)"

I'm afraid that the troll that you refer to lse2000 who's made 17 comments in the past 30 days, all negative is wallywoo from ADVFN S4 Capital discussion board, he's blighted that board for over 2 years with nothing but doom and gloom negative comments. If anyone says anything positive he will accuse them of being a paid ramper. If you go on his comment history he spends his days commenting on other under performing company share prices. He has no morals, and believes that his negative comments will influence weak shareholders in to selling. Some people live sad lives.

March 22, 2024 WSJ report....

"Sorrell has received several merger offers from Stagwell, an ad firm led by former Clinton adviser Mark Penn, according to people familiar with the matter. Sorrell rebuffed the offers because in his view, they undervalued the company and Stagwell wasn’t a good strategic fit. One proposal, made last fall, was worth nearly $700 million, some of the people said. At least one private-equity firm also expressed some interest in acquiring S4.

Even though S4 is publicly traded, Sorrell has effective veto power over most deals because he has voting control. His reluctance to entertain offers has frustrated senior executives, some of whom are looking to facilitate a sale.

However, Stagwell’s interest in S4 is waning given Sorrell’s reluctance to negotiate, some of the people said.

New York private-equity firm New Mountain Capital held exploratory talks with S4 last year about a possible acquisition, according to people familiar with the discussions."

https://archive.is/xIgUA

I don't see any low-ball takeover offer being accepted, not as long as SMS is alive. He holds all the cards. SMS hasn't worked 7 years for nothing, setting S4 Capital up to fail and lose money, no its not in his vocabulary.

Https://newdigitalage.co/cannes-lions/ndas-an-audience-with-sir-martin-sorrell-of-s4-capital/?gad_source=2&gclid=CjwKCAjw9eO3BhBNEiwAoc0-jX-gfsEJYJvPICnqHVLufdCJtKqlxvfnkaSEe--JqxpbY4ZU0F1x_BoC67QQAvD_BwE

Hi Rock, do you have any links to any recent comments made by SMS regarding a NY listing? Cheers.

Regarding last Fridays very large end of day Uncrossed Trade 11.6m, it will be interesting to find out who picked up shares.

According to the Bloomberg screenshot taken on September 12th, Third Avenue Management multiple portfolios holdings was 5.85% at 35,816,899 being the 4th largest shareholder.

https://postimg.cc/dL5W9KB5

I liked the Baron comment regarding the GM win being a "top three account for the group by value" new whopper.

Analysts earnings forecasts have brought forward S4 making a profit next year than previously 2026. By 2026 Net Debt expected to be down to £77.1m (today £182.9m) with FCF expected to almost double 2024 £31.38m expectations, in 2026 £60.35m.

Now that all past M&A is behind us, its a load off for S4. If S4 can meet or beat these expectations then professional investor Baron may well be right with his prediction of 200% share price move. That would be most welcome. Time will tell. DYOR.

Https://x.com/baroninvestment/status/1837076182916907378

Take note of what the professional investor says on Twitter Sept 20....

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

When the growth returns, I will see you all 200% higher. Love throwing a bit of controversy out on a Friday 😉

p.s. I obviously take some comfort that #SFOR just secured the GM win. Not just of course the important diversification away from tech(!) but set to be a top three account for the group by value. I also take massive comfort that there's no more major outflows from M&A this year (£80m in 2023) and of course the impact from rates on clients and financing line ahead! Post yesterday's update, analyst consensus marking down and up for a FCFY24/25 at 12%/22% (which supports Jefferies saying a superior free cashflow yield over peers). Get back to doubling margins as per their objectives and I will be extremely happy. Bottom of range multiples (across the metrics) suggests no confidence whatsoever but therein lies the opp also.

Baron Investments

@baroninvestment

That bonkers #SFOR chart though just reminds you of what market pays in the good times or how excited it gets on momentum, buying the dream. 52x p/e highs with a 22x average over last 5 years (should be a orange line visible through middle of chart). Now trading at 6x forward.

UT 11.6m WOW.