Member Info for NigeCo

Some large off book trades going through 737,913 shares.

Trades reported priceses 132.7p to 141.63p.

Two large trades, reported as buys. Qualcomm maybe?

13:56:45......1,204,757 shares @124.961

13:54:59......1,003,964 shares @124.961

The Reuters article below dated 1/4/2025 reports that Alphawave "has been working with its investment bankers to explore a sale after receiving acquisition interest from Arm and other potential acquirers"

https://www.reuters.com/technology/arm-recently-sought-acquire-alphawave-ai-chip-tech-sources-say-2025-04-01/

BlueRaphus,

Thank you for your indepth reply, much appreciated.

I guess it comes down to what price Qualcomm is willing to pay? Either pay a large premium on todays market valuation to meet Alphawaves BOD's future valuation, or potentually regret it withing a few years if AWE meets its own 2027 revenue target of $1bln. £3 plus per share now, or maybe above £6 per share in three years time. All based on future revenue earnings. A case for both arguements could be made IMHO.

"The board seem confident to achieve this given that recently they completed a $150m convertible bond offering to shore up the balance sheet. On that reasoning, I don’t see them (in my opinion) easily accepting offers below £2.50 or £3 given that the company is on track to grow its revenue significantly over the next 3 to 7 years"

BlueRaphus,

What offer price do you think the board would accept? Thanks in advance.

Gapped up 3.05p at UT. Bodes well.

Https://www.adnews.com.au/news/s4-capital-s-strategy-after-getting-caught-in-the-tech-downturn/type/yafNews

The latest Drum article below looked at the potential suitors for S4, naming WPP amongst others.

https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2025/03/28/s4-capital-crossroads-stability-struggles-and-strategic-speculation

Poker, agreed.

Poker, regarding Stagwell, this is what was reported in the Wall Street Journal 22 March 2024. Yes I agree, the offers never got to the official stage because they were flatly rebuffed by Sorrell and his BOD.

https://archive.is/xIgUA

"Sorrell has received several merger offers from Stagwell, an ad firm led by former Clinton adviser Mark Penn, according to people familiar with the matter. Sorrell rebuffed the offers because in his view, they undervalued the company and Stagwell wasn’t a good strategic fit. One proposal, made last fall, was worth nearly $700 million, some of the people said. At least one private-equity firm also expressed some interest in acquiring S4."

"New York private-equity firm New Mountain Capital held exploratory talks with S4 last year about a possible acquisition, according to people familiar with the discussions. New Mountain has a majority stake in digital marketing outfit Tinuiti and owns Bounteous, a consulting company focused on building digital customer experiences for brands. New Mountain remains interested in buying some parts of S4."

"I really do think this will come good H2…"

Hope so mate. If S4 can keep reducing net debt at the same rate as in 2024, then this will rerate IMHO.

The update on Pepsico. I can confirm that PepsiCo are a new client, but wish not to be named.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8fiM9hd1CU

Anyone else noticed that in the Interim results S4 announced new client PepsiCo, fast forward to Full Year results PepsiCo not in the list of new clients. I've asked S4 for clarification on this, still waiting for a responce. Maybe its just been missed off the Full Year report, but it shouldn't have been missed off. Poor.

"S4 is more likely to be an MBO situation if they can raise the debt but I would question why this would change anything in terms of the founders wealth at least in the short run."

From managements perspective if they could raise the funds for a MBO, take private until S4 returns to growth, then IPO on the USA Nasdaq. This would be their best option IMHO.

What would be a fair price for existing S4 shareholders with management already having turned down a close to $700m offer from Stagwell? With SMS claiming the offer was not credible. In other interviews / podcasts, SMS gave his valuation of between 10x & 20x EBITDA minus net debt. With S4 Capital showing good signs that they now have costs under conrol and able to reduce net debt from £180.8m to £142.9m in the last 6 months, with guidence this year of net debt to fall further between £100m - £140m. This IMHO makes S4 look more attractive to a potential predator. But as SMS points out "we control our own destiny" or should that be "he" with him owning a golden share.

I would guess that the same buyer has made all the following trades within the last 10 minutes of trade today. Maybe a director? Time will tell.

@16:20:17pm 66,120 Buy

@16:20:35pm 65,262 Buy

@16:20:53pm 65,142 Buy

@16:21:09pm 65,228 Buy

@16:28:41pm 64,583 Buy

@16:28:57pm 64,485 Buy

Wildtiger... "Bought a few back after listening to the earnings call again. FTSE is rocketing, this should follow soon."

15 minutes later you sold LOL. You will never hang yourself.

What valuation would anyone considering a takeover bid for S4 Capital. With S4 already having turned down a 92p per share approach from stagwell last year will Stagwell return now that 2024 full year results are out?

Sorrell has said previously that his valuation of S4 Capital would be based typically on 10X & 20X EBITDA minus Net Debt.

@10X EBITDA of £87.8m = £878m Minus Net Debt £142.9m Dividend by current shares in issue 616,636,656 = 119.79p

@20X EBITDA of £87.8m = £1,756m Minus Net Debt £142.9m Divided by current shares in issue 616,636,656 = 262.87p

IMO Stagwell or anyone else would have to pay at the very least 120p per share. Happy to add/hold now that the large £280.4m imparment charge is out of the way. JMO.

"S4 reduced its net debt from £180m to £140m and declared its first dividend, 1p a share. Presumably investors are hoping that the big impairment covers any horrors to come. S4, if that’s out of the way, may re-emerge as a takeover target. Mark Penn’s Stagwell made a tentative approach last year. Despite the losses £848m is a lot of revenue for someone."

https://www.moreaboutadvertising.com/2025/03/tech-troubles-hit-s4-capital-again/

Jefferies raises S4 Capital price target to 55 (50) pence - 'buy'