Member Info for nicktheglobe

RKH is looking ripe for a takeover on the cheap.

Absolutely right! But how long can ESG rule everything? Who's going to provide the investment going forward for our much-needed oil and gas supplies?

Mirasol, BOR are in the middle of a placing with shareholder participation. I'm sure RKH could do the same.

Strong rises in Navitas yesterday and RKH late-on today. News on Sea Lion imminent?

ICSID is the world’s leading institution devoted to international investment dispute settlement. The EU is subordinate to ICSID.

I think the chance of a decent OM settlement os >80%. . The ECT has teeth.

Yes, you could lose most of your capital on the downside but the upside is enormous. Good odds at the current price IMHO.

Agree! Third week of November would be a good time to make the announcement. Incidentally there's far more criticism of the COP26 circus in some circles than would have been thinkable a few months ago. The energy crisis is making people think a bit more critically about the green religion.

So why are you holding Superritch? Are you desperate to lose money?

I thought you'd sold out Happy. Why are you so interested still.

"Whilst oil and gas will still be needed development will increasingly take place in fields and oil provinces which already have infrastructure."
This is not realistic. There is a growing crisis in world oil/gas supplies and old fields inevitably decline with age. New fields are always required, witness the recent massive increase in offshore the Americas.

Think this is the critical bit:

"Accordingly, the Partnership intends to review its continued operations in connection with the Memorandum of Understanding and the Oil Asset, including an examination of the possibility of acquiring rights in the oil asset on occasional terms, as it did in similar circumstances that existed in the projects Baskin and Shenandoah. In addition, the partnership intends to review and evaluate together with Rockhopper (the remaining partner in the oil asset), The feasibility of developing the oil asset and the various business alternatives."

followed by masses of legal exclusion clauses

A full write-up is at

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/19542295.extinction-rebellion-protesters-gather-salisbury---live-updates/

Gate was c20. But these guys sure have the ears of the media in spite of the lack of clear public support.

Incidentally note RKH's palatial HQ in Salisbury -- looks a bit like a charity shop.

the soaring gas prices in Europe, which are pushing up electricity prices, are due to poor output from renewables, particularly wind, revival in demand post-pandemic and a lack of fresh supply, due to green considerations. Russia will oblige eventually at astronomical prices! The answer in the Energy Transition is to produce more gas from areas such as the North Sea, to insulate houses better and to invest in nuclear power; Rolls Royce are investing heavily in SMRs (Small Module (nuclear) Reactors, each occupies about 2 football pitches), which operate at 1000 times the energy density of wind and solar, that is you would need 2000 football pitches for similar output to the SMR. Renewables are for dreamers, given the current human population density on the planet

I'm not sure the market always knows what's going on in legal cases. I hold some Manchester Building Society Bonds, which were busted, trading around 40%. They had a Supreme Court Case against their auditors. There was no insider buying as the result loomed. The Court found in the Building Society's favour and the bonds promptly rose over 200%.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/MBSR/statement-regarding-supreme-court-judgment/15023898

5% drop in Chinese demand is no more than 1% of total world demand. Hardly a major issue unless the situation gets far worse; unlike Australia the Chinese have vaccinated much of their population.

In arbitration interest is awarded to the winner and also some of the claimant's legal costs can be paid by the loser, though not sure how that applies to RKH's legal set-up. Interest seems to be in the range 2-5% pa and presumably applies from the date the company lost the asset to settlement date.

"One thing for sure is the sea lion well will never be drilled now climate change has taken hold."

There's a lot of drilling for oil offshore in South America in Brazil; it's one of the hot areas for current and future exploration. Argentina issued licenses in 2019 for offshore oil development in areas adjacent to the Falklands. And the world is going to need new areas as supplies fall short. Expect an ingenious solution for the Falklands combining green hydrogen from wind, new gas fields for the energy transition and oil as a stop-gap fuel. See example from Chile:

Chile’s green lessons for emerging markets

Chile has put together one of the world’s most ambitious plans for renewable energy, hoping to capitalise on the blessings of abundant strong winds in southern Patagonia and fierce sun in the northern Atacama Desert to generate green electricity at rock-bottom prices.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c97054e-2794-44a6-bc4d-00e3fdb7d5b9

The trouble is the world has bought into renewable energy (wind, solar) as the new power sources. These have severe limitations, producing only 3-4% of world's electricity supplies, in spite of massive investments. Further they are intermittent: the windmills produce little electricity at times, requiring back-up, or too much in windy spells, requiring payments for others to switch off. Solar produces nothing at night. Hydro produces 6% of the world's electricity. Nuclear is the long-term answer but is disliked by greens and for its costs. So I see a very messy 10-15 years while the world finds that renewables are only a part of the solution. Meanwhile oil and gas will continue to be the predominant energy sources and feedstock for chemicals/plastics with supply restricted by the greens. Peak oil is some way off!

Yes, it can be halved through contributory negligence: that RKH entered carelessly into the Italian venture without due diligence.