Member Info for nicktheglobe

They also ignorantly say that PMO shareholders will be diluted by any rights issue. That's true only if you don't take up the rights! Who writes such rubbish?

The bond PMO1 is rising a little as well. Their holders are normally very slow but they may have heard a few rumours as well!

Strong upwards move today in airline shares in UK and US (pre-market), bodes well for fuel usage down the line.

Agreed. There's no way that 'renewables' can produce enough energy for our needs. Their energy density is too low and we cannot allocate the whole planet to wind and solar farms. Hydrogen is a clean energy in that its use would reduce pollution in cities from cars as its combustion produces water. But people are dreaming if they think the hydrogen is going to be generated from electrolysis of water: it's going to come from gas!

U.S. API Weekly Crude Stock
Actual
-8.156M
Previous
1.749M

Big fall this week, off the record high! Brent up to $41.6.

In a recent presentation on PMO, TD said they needed $45 a barrel for SL to be viable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/goodbye-bonanza-oil-trade

"The contango quickly disappeared and, as of Thursday, day rates stood at just below $22,000. The amount of oil that’s being held in floating storage excluding Asia -- logistical constraints are hampering cargo unloading in China -- has begun to drop sharply."

Shows a graph, revealing rapid fall from top in April/May though totals still above normal. The fall will be elevating oil stocks elsewhere and hence depressing oil prices but once it's done, that's another impediment to a further rise in PoO in q3 removed.

"The rating downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that despite the rebound in oil prices since mid-April and the significant cuts in operating costs and capital expenditure initiated by EnQuest in order to lower its free cash flow (FCF) breakeven to $33/barrel (bbl) for 2020, which equates to c.$25/bbl for the remainder of the year, and $27/bbl for 2021, an extended period of low oil prices averaging $35/bbl over the 2020-2021 period would require approximately a third of the final amortisation of $360 million due under the group's credit facility in October 2021 to be refinanced."

So at $35 a barrel they think 1/3 of the 2021 debt repayment will be missed. However with Brent now at $41 their figures seem to be lagging the recovery in oil priced.

You cannot believe anything you read by these trading houses. They may be talking their book, for instance GS might have missed out on the recent rise and hoping to recover their position by a lower entry point. I do remember when Brent topped out in the last boom at c$80 GS were forecasting very strongly a continuing rise, maybe to give them time to get their shorts set-up.
I've bought small amounts of a few shale plays over the last few weeks: CDEV, LPI, PE, OAS, CPE, DNR, to keep a closer eye on what is going on. Volatility is huge: I won't go bust if they all indeed do so!

In excitement realise 10 times out in % calculation, holding of retail bond is 250k nominal, 0.16%. Sorry for aggrandisement!

It's not that much, pity to say but not negligible!!

the retail bond is £155m based on last accounts:
"$218.9 million principal outstanding on the £155 million retail bond, including interest capitalised as an amount PIK of $21.5 million in the year (2017: $224.1 million and $14.9 million, respectively);"

But I will be celebrating a little!

Yes, it's a very good day for the retail bond showing that hard-nosed bond buyers are beginning to realise ENQ is not headed for the knackers yard. I've built up a holding of 1.6% of the retail bond, something I never dreamt possible! I will move some into ENQ equity in due course.

That's very interesting. GLEN must surely be interested in acquiring ARK's 23.44% as that must be quite an irritant since the more that ZNG and GLEN spend, ARK is a continuing major potential beneficiary with its 23.44% cast in stone from the original agreement. ZNG might also like to buy ARK's stake out but I doubt they've got the money.

The United States will pull two Patriot missile batteries from guarding Saudi Arabian oil facilities, an American official told the Associated Press on Thursday, citing a disagreement over oil production.
The anonymous source also told the AP that the U.S. would pull out 300 U.S. troops staffing the missile batteries.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-To-Withdraw-Patriot-Missiles-From-Saudi-Arabia-Over-Oil-Dispute.html

I read it without any concern. The 120 days initially planned for the deal to execute, including the equity raise, has expired. The appeal has to be heard before anything can happen. The other partners to the refinancing are therefore stood down temporarily as in the RNS:
"Premier continues to work with its underwriters with the objective of entering into new underwriting arrangements if required once the outcome of the appeal process is known."

Markets have responded well initially anyway. Since we're supposed to be in the biggest glut of all times, it's far from disastrous! Brent 31.36 as write, high for day, +15.2%.

Bloomberg have a very strong green energy agenda, partly driven by Michael Bloomberg's ambition to lead the Democrats to victory as their president. Suspect it's wishful thinking or maybe just being politically correct.

meant paywall!

I suggest we don't paste full copy here as the text is behind a firewall and we'll find the whole thread deleted. However we can post short excerpts for the purpose of discussion!

Looking at Signal's web pages at https://www.signalcapital.com/:
"Signal Capital Partners is a London-based private asset management firm focusing on European asset-backed corporate and real estate special situations investments"
"ASYMMETRIC RISK PROFILE
Constructing asymmetric risk profiles by limiting downside risk through asset-backed security and utilizing all structural tools to generate upside convexity

AVOID MARKET BETA
Avoiding investments with significant market risk, where returns are predicated on a continuation of benign risk environments with elevated enterprise valuation levels and high debt capacity multiples"

Doesn't look too bad. They appear to recognise that ENQ is undervalued and downside risk is limited. I wondered whether they might be thinking of taking ENQ private (with partners) and AB's purchase is an attempt to strengthen his hand in the negotiations.