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So that's 22.75p a share!

The analysts predict $4.9-5.6bn market value after taking off the remaining debt. So we're looking at 5.45% of say $5bn, which is $272.5m (£210m), compared to current market cap of £121m. If bondholders take some equity instead of cash it will be less. But it seems that PMO equity is significantly undervalued because of demoralised shareholders quitting!

"With the newco having net debt on completion of $3.2bn, this would translate to a market cap of $4.9-5.6bn. Premier’s shareholders would own 5.45pc of the newco—assuming the firm’s creditors take a maximum cash payment available (and a 25pc haircut) rather than opt to take shares.

Based on this assumption, the newco would only need to have a market cap above $3.4bn for the deal to be at a premium to Premier’s pre-deal valuation. Even applying the values of Premier’s least-loved peer—Enquest’s deliberately late-life barrels—the newco’s market cap would be in a $1.5-2.2bn range."

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/corporate/ma/2020/no-golden-age-for-north-sea-ma-westwood

Don't think I'd sell PMO at this level. It has a good asset mix, including plenty of gas, which could become highly valued. Gas prices in US and Europe have made a full V-shaped recovery and moves to 'renewables' are likely to favour gas as when the wind and sun aren't running to plan it's the CCGT that's switched on. Gas can also be used to make blue hydrogen.

Way undervalued at 200p. Sea change in oil stocks today on Wall Street. Expect a steady advance from here! Natural gas prices have undergone a V-shaped recovery in full from the spring low, expect oil to follow while stocks overhang reduced on increased demand from Asia, including China and India, and limited supply from OPEC+.

RDSB has massive gas reserves. The price of natural gas has just about fully recovered in both USA and Europe from the February levels. Renewables are likely to benefit gas as it is the fuel they burn to keep the lights on when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Natural gas can be used to make blue hydrogen. IMHO 890 is a bargain price!

Good to see the puritans are still trying to take advantage of the situation! Pubs and hotels are not major conduits for Covid infection. The main conduit is socialising in people's homes, including drinking without any social-distancing controls. In my experience social distancing controls are being enforced strictly by the hospitality industry.

#API #Crude +0.584M [EST -0.024M] #Cushing +1.174M #Gasoline -1.622M [EST -1.767M] #Distillate -5.983M [EST -1.600M]

At usual time this week. Crude's a little disappointing with a small rise but another big decline in distillate (heating and diesel fuels) and a smaller decline in gasoline (petrol).

BHP bosses defend company's decision to stay in gas and oil 'for the medium term'
Chairman Ken MacKenzie tells AGM that fossil fuels will be part of the energy mix for decades
“We accept the science around climate change and we support the Paris goals,” MacKenzie said. “The reality is that all current plausible scenarios show that fossil fuels will be part of the energy mix for decades.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/15/bhp-bosses-defend-companys-decision-to-stay-in-gas-and-oil-for-the-medium-term

National Grid warns of short supply of electricity over next few days
System operating at reduced capacity due to low wind speeds and unplanned power plant outages
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/14/national-grid-warns-of-short-supply-of-electricity-over-next-few-days

Crude: -5.4221MGasoline: -1.513MDistillates: -3.930MCushing: +2.199M

Draw was c4m bigger than forecast. Also demand in India, a major market, is recovering with a couple of festivals coming up.

All conversions cost energy. I'm not convinced by any of these proposed green energy techniques that involve double conversions from one chemical to another.

Big draw in crude, gasoline stocks up:

#Crude -9.517M, vs +1.271M exp..#Cushing -0.798M, vs +2.608M prior.#Gasoline +3.762M, vs -0.160M exp..#Distillate -1.123M, vs +0.600M exp.

I noticed that the article doesn't talk much about costs and electricity prices. Countries and states which have gone down the renewable route -- Denmark, Germany, South Australia, California -- have very high electricity prices. The reliability of renewables is dealt with to some extent and it appears that natural gas from 'green sources' is the solution. i liked the comment 3 under the article -- nuclear power, also low carbon generation,but with much higher density , could do it all for a tiny fraction of the land requirements of renewables, leaving much more space for wildlife. Finally with so much non-renewable apparatus, such as batteries, needed for renewables, when does the term 'renewable' become inappropriate?

Group 11 (ZNG.V) started well (see below) and finished strongly this evening in Toronto, from open at 9 to finish at 11.00-12.50 after reaching 13.50. Glencore has a stake in equity and warrants and a director on the board of ZNG. Zinc could be becoming a hot metal through its growing use in battery technology.

Falls in crude, gas and distillate stocks:

#Crude -4.401M vs -3.20M est. #Cushing +1.073M #Gasoline -1.310M vs -1.50M est. #Distillate -2.949M vs +0M est.

in UK fuel use is just about back to pre-virus levels:

"Daily fuel sales briefly beat pre-virus average as build-up continues
Daily road fuel sales topped the pre-virus average on Friday for the first time since lockdown.

An average of 18,094 litres were sold per filling station on July 31st, slightly average of the pre-lockdown run-rate just shy of 18,000. The weekly average to Sunday was 15,572 litres per station.

The benchmark reading came as data from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy showed a continued comeback in road fuel demand."

I suspect that some drivers are using the car a lot more to avoid public transport. Some of my friends have done massive drives across Europe to avoid other people!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/06/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

Natural gas is up 17.5% as write. PMO has significant gas resources I think! Anyone know why gas has taken off?

The Rystad article is poorly written in that it mixes up units, with total number of barrels used when it wants to scare you and barrels per day elsewhere. The claimed 'glut' of 170m barrels over 4 months is 1.4m barrels a day, which taken with so many other variables of bigger magnitude is not that significant!

Maybe if the majors have more cash than projected, they may be tempted to go shopping at the discount stores!

But biomass is a joke, right! The idea that it contributes to a long-term reduction in carbon dioxide levels is a product of clever accounting of the Enron variety. And it results in enormous damage to the environment through converting diverse countryside to mono-culture plantations.

The cited Norsk article is an advert. All energy sources have their problems:

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/6/19/local-protests-force-slowdown-in-norwegian-wind-power-plans

Local protests force slowdown in Norwegian wind power plans

"The proposed changes include that permits are valid for a shorter time before construction starts, height restrictions on turbines and noise requirements, in addition to local acceptance of the projects. For instance, a turbine can not be closer to a house or cabin than four times the height of the turbines.

Norway’s Petroleum and Energy Minister, who presented the white paper with the proposed changes on Friday, felt the wrath of protesters herself. Only a week ago, Tina Bru experienced being blocked physically from attending an event on the west coast while being pummeled with insults, she wrote on her Facebook page.

“It’s legitimate to be opposed to wind power, both in principle and where you live -- I understand that wind power can stoke strong feelings and heated debate,” Bru said at a press conference on Friday. “But I reject harassment, threats and vandalism.”