Member Info for nicktheglobe

Think it's quadwitching day around now for options.

Low-density renewable energy and high-resource use of EVs is not what the planet needs. Petrol will still be around in 2050.

The low valuation on ENQ is not just peculiar to us. Many oil shares have similar problems because some pundits (wrongly) think peak oil has occurred or is imminent. The Canadian company, Suncor, we're doing business with in the North Sea, considers its shares to be so undervalued that it's paying a dividend and buying back c5% of its shares each year. ENQ will need to clear the RCF but then with some debt reorganisation could start buying back its own shares. That's putting your money where your mouth is!

Don't sell your oil shares yet!

The Express is reporting:
Manufacturers call for petrol and diesel car ban to be delayed - 'Tough and demanding'. PLANS for a petrol and diesel car ban to be introduced by the end of the decade have taken a major setback as car manufacturers call for the scheme to be pushed back by five years. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has revealed car makers told him 2035 would be a more “realistic” target for the implementation of the ban.
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1431929/petrol-diesel-car-ban-date-uk-manufacturers?mc_cid=6fcd72f77a&mc_eid=cb6f58eb35

Think we were going well today until flash crash in tech and green energy stocks. Suspect some traders sold out of everything in a panic or on margin calls in necessity. Some hefty falls in green energy, covering both wind and hydrogen.

"Renewables are increasing market share for electricity generation. 2018"

Well today our vast fleet of wind turbines is contributing 2.4% to our national grid due to no wind. Bur they're still being paid -- that's a subsidy.

There's also a problem with their design -- maybe capex cut at expense of opex:

Ørsted says offshore UK windfarms need urgent repairs. Operator says it may need to spend £350m over two years to repair cable damage caused by seabed rocks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/29/rsted-says-offshore-uk-windfarms-need-urgent-repairs

Their shares fell 6.7% on Thursday.

Renewables don't cut it at the national level. Wind has been producing 2-5% of our energy for the best part of 2 weeks, natural gas 50-60%. We can't base our lifestyles on such unreliable energy.

I'll correct that. It's a billion Israeli shekels, about 300 million US$. How much do they need for initial phase?

Navitas have an mcap of a billion $. They are not a tiddler!

'Are they really going to make the grade ...'

Yes of course they are. Navitas have much expertise to offer in offshore drilling in the Americas:

https://www.navitasinternational.com/drilling-marine/

Oil stocks in general might have been affected by tax-loss selling in the last week or two as investors with gains in say tech stocks sell stocks they've lost money on, certainly including oil shares unless bought recently, to reduce their CGT bills. The tax year ends today for trading purposes. So with end-quarter adjustments, tax-loss selling and OPEC out the way, maybe we'll see a more positive sentiment going forward. Dare I say it but mooted postponement of COP26 (due to COVID) could moderate some of the extreme ESG stuff.

I agree that the movement in the bond market is the best signal yet that Hurricane will survive. Bondholders are very experienced investors and also often have inside knowledge. Sells are way ahead of buys today but the price is steady -- is someone siphoning off the equity?

I think that's a net draw as it takes 42 gallons of crude oil to make 30 gallons of derivatives.

I think AB has done very well in traumatic times. If you remember TD tried a very similar last-ditch rescue with PMO to the upcoming ENQ deal. He wanted to buy already-producing assets and increase the debt further. But it didn't come off because the debt was already too high. By being very prudent over the last year, ENQ is in a better position to take advantage of tax credits and to refinance the senior debt.

Jersey is a British Crown Dependency, not in the UK. Jersey is a self-governing parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy, with its own financial, legal and judicial systems, and the power of self-determination [Wiki]

Also on City AM at:
https://www.cityam.com/supreme-court-curbs-sfos-global-reach/

Sometimes with open offers they allow holders to subscribe for excess shares. So undersubscription by some is counterbalanced by oversubscriptions by others. I think the bond price ENQ1 now reaching 85 offer is a vote of confidence in the company. One of the prior objections to Enquest bond-wise was that the company was a one-club business, relying on Kraken overmuch. Further bond holders love to see more equity put into the business.

Well the bond ENQ1 likes the news, quoted now at 84 offer. so that would suggest the viability of the business is close to being assured. Being able to raise new senior debt is a good sign. Equity holders will be able to participate in the open offer, as they wish. The price of the offer will determine whether there is any significant dilution.

The bond ENQ1 is now up to 79.4 offer so returning confidence in Enquest there. The bonds will have 3.5% nominal PIK added to them on 14/2. The higher the bond price, the greater the value of the PIK: it's a strange situation, the opposite of normal. Once the bond reaches around 85 offer, think that will be a signal that the market calculates that the debt situation is fully under control and the leverage in the equity can come into play.

Group 11 is up on the news. This was a step-out drill, done outside of the proven core area to see how far the mineralisation might extend. So they were not expecting high grades. They'll be happy with the potential mine operational area being extended.