Member Info for nicktheglobe

I'm surprised at the face value put upon the comments by the chair of Chrysaor. Surely she's talking her book: playing down the value of other NS oil producers/explorers and talking down the prospect of future developments such as in the Falklands.

I'm surprised at the face value put upon the comments by the chair of Chrysaor. Surely she's talking her book: playing down the value of other NS oil producers/explorers and talking down the prospect of future developments such as in the Falklands.

The trouble is that if this policy is actually enacted, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot as we don't have significant indigenous renewable energy companies to support in place of the oil companies. Renewable energy companies are typically Danish, German, Chinese or American. There's also the point that unreliable expensive 'renewable' energy may not be what the recipients want. Anyway, no worries, Chrysaor will readily secure funding without UKef support.

This is not new news:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/12/boris-johnson-poised-to-stop-uk-funding-overseas-fossil-fuel-projects

It's obviously been said louder today to time with the climate action meeting. Will the Falklands count as overseas? Another article says it's foreign projects that are affected and that implementation will be before COP21 next November. Also if Sea Lion is really going to be a financial success, Chrysaor will fund it anyway: they have access to ample credit lines.

Dutch natural gas prices are still very high (see Oilprice.com, oil price charts).

The amount of gas being burnt on the CCGT of our National Grid (GridWatch) is very high at present due to 'renewables' not performing well. May be the same in other northern European countries. Very little solar at this time of year and lack of wind over last 2 weeks is causing the gas turbines to be run at high levels.

So read across from the US should maybe be treated with caution.

"Renewables , Battery storage and new Nuclear should be able to provide al of the UK Electricity. Coal is almost gone. Bio Pellets I'm not sure about, Peaker plants can be beaten by Battery Storage. Apparently onshore and offshore wind is cheaper than Gas power plants without all the emissions."

I take it you don't look at Gridwatch, which shows current generator sources. CCGT (gas) has been providing comfortably over 50% of our electricity over the last week with wind as low as 1% at times. Solar is 0% most of the time, reaching 2-3% at midday. Any battery capacity would have been exhausted well before today. Some cynics say that the big oil companies like 'renewables' because they increase gas consumption.

Denmark's decision to cancel its next oil/gas licensing round was classical greenwashing. There had been little interest and the absolute amounts are tiny.

Looking at the current Gridwatch, it's a disaster for those who want us to switch to 100% 'renewables'. Power prices have soared:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-05/u-k-power-prices-jump-after-grid-warns-of-narrowing-reserves

and currently solar is delivering 0% (after sunset) and wind 1%, in spite of massive past investments. CCGT (gas) is supplying 55% of the load.

All that drilling expertise and personnel off southern Brazil will be looking for new adjacent areas soon! It's about 2300 km from Sea Lion, N of Falklands, to the Tupi (Liza), Mero and Carcara fields in the south Atlantic (25 deg S) in Brazil. Here's 10 major projects in South America, including Sea Lion:

https://www.fircroft.com/blogs/10-major-south-american-upstream-oil-and-gas-projects-you-need-to-92332116375

"Following Farm-in Completion, but prior to 1 April 2021, Navitas can exercise a withdrawal right"

Why should Navitas withdraw? Their web site and presentations indicate they think it is a good prospect. Further it fits with their expertise in deep water oil extraction in the eastern Mediterranean and in eastern America.

"Alternatively they could all just walk away"

What? In the most exciting area currently for current oil development in the world -- offshore South America!

Why concentrate on one storage depot? The bigger (world) picture is steadily improving. See:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390800-crude-oil-floating-storage-recovered-to-pre-covid-level

In particular the glut at sea has gone, the important Indian market is recovering well and the contango is narrowing.

So Ralph what's your interest? Why don't you just move on? Why do you spend so much time on this board? You have a dismal idea of how to use your time usefully!

Chrysaor have ageing assets. They need new fields.

Don't understand the idea floated by some that we lose the carry if Premier eject Navitas. The Heads of Terms agreement concludes:

"Premier’s obligation to fund Rockhopper prior to Farm-in Completion, either through the carry or through the Loan thereafter, is a legally binding obligation which will only terminate in the event that (1) either Navitas elects to withdraw or Premier elects to remove Navitas, and (2) Premier elects not to step into the Navitas arrangements."

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/2020/01/heads-of-terms-with-navitas-petroleum-to-farm-in-to-the-sea-lion-project-and-associated-amendments-to-existing-agreements-with-premier-oil/

So Premier can eject Navitas but they then have to take on the 30% allocated to Navitas AND continue supporting Rockhopper's farm-in costs. The carry is only lost if Premier decides not to proceed (which is obvious really).

"One other point I would like clarified why when PMO are producing about 25% of the newco's total production is it only getting 5% of newco !!"
The debt holders of PMO are getting 20% and the equity of PMO 5% so that makes 25% in all for Premier Oil.

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Nov 10, 2020 21:30 -5.147M -0.900M -8.010M

The ducks are beginning to line up!

Agreed Kince and there is another correlation with tobacco: the developing world is proving less inclined to change its habits. And that's where much of the growth is occurring as in Asia, in particular, for oil.

I was following the action on iii. From 16:25-16:30 the ask dropped from 5.97 to 5.55 but I couldn't get a bid in at 16:29 as the dealers had shut-down automatic trading!

Have you got your pantomime season worked out yet? You're the perfect evil fairy! Pity your analysis is so awry! I'll stock with 22.75p as fair value for PMO according to the offer.

I was taking their best guesstimate. So 22.75 is the figure based on that. Why should their outrageously pessimistic case be taken as the likely figure? PMO have some very good producing assets and POO will go up if vaccines become available soon as indicated in today's press.