Member Info for NicetoMichu

the extent of the decline here in recent weeks is shocking even to a cynic like me.. wow.. I deserved 0 from my original 5k bet in GSR and I'm almost there now.. and still wouldn't even dream of topping up here even at these levels.. they need to raise money I expect.. any meaningful amount might be impossible now.. or would dilute this factorially again.. frightening..

A £15m placing if Ruyi walk away Ironic ? How are you coming up with this figure? The mkt cap is only approx. £5m now.. and would go down from that if Ruyi walk, I expect .. To raise £15m then would be very hard imho and extraordinarily dilutitive . Instead I offer, if they even required a raise if ruyi walk, I don't expect it would be anything like as much as 15m gbp?

(The £10m now owed - versus approx. 2.2m a year earlier - was indeed a red light for me too... and it was unfortunately not broken down exactly, but the factoring - recourse instead of non recourse factoring would be cheaper for fees charged bagr by factorer but if invoices were not paid Bagr would now take the hit instead of the factorer.. so were some invoices looking like becoming bad debts in the period for eg ?.. but maybe they'd be retrieved further down the line still which would bring down £10m etc.. also there is £3 m cash in hand ….also I expect the lag between invoices to be soon paid against expenses already incurred would help too... and factoring and import financing costs are different types of debt to the Ethiopian factory loan ... and, more generally, a company carrying some debt is not necessarily a bad thing )

Aside: generally, AIM financial reporting always comes with a large pinch of salt/health warning imho.. is at often, at best, unclear and usually an exercise in smoke and mirrors imho...

The AGM is still a week and a half away and so they can do an update between now and then, hopefully ...maybe, even the morning of .. etc

Not coming up with any positive news recently is somewhat surprising to me and indeed somewhat annoying.. but makes the recent ongoing downward share drift understandable.. as ever on AIM no news seems assumed to be bad news..

Also the fact Woodford still holds just under 20 % - I think - of this co. might be causing some reticence here. The recent noise around him perhaps selling down some positions in coming months might concern some here. A small concern at most for me only as My GUESS is this is so small - total current market value of his holding here is less than £5m GBP I think, which on the holdings he has is more or less peanuts to him; and this s/p at a very low ebb currently and so defo. now not the time to sell etc. - and I'd guess the same to most holders here.. but this is so illiquid that small volumes of sells without similar buys move the price down readily enough.. so, in the absence of meaningful buying, any Pi's jumping ship on their small bets does drag it down
( aside: maybe the likes of CMS would see this as an opportunity to offer to take an off market block off Woodford around market rate, or maybe even higher to temp him .... fine by me as not adversely effecting the s/p meaningfully and might even help it.. etc ...I doubt he'd sell anyway , as this s/p might have good upside from such very low levels in the future etc..)

I genuinely believe what I’ve posted and if you look at my posting history here you’ll see I’ve been consistent, Hinkais I’m involved here for the Ruyi deal completing .. I’d only add back here now if it completes or if the s/p collapses to less than .75p if it doesn’t , the latter for short term tactical reasons only and I don’t expect it’ll go that low whatever and hope for others sakes here it doesn’t .. good response posts btw Taff .. the future could of course be bright for an independent bagr too .. And i hope it would be ..but am far from sure it would be ..

The company being loss making for a fair few years now might explain that Taff.. sure, more recently, restructuring costs are a meaningful factor and things would be improving otherwise... but restructuring costs are still costs and loss making it still is.. that might change in the future even if Ruyi walk away.. or it might not.. the way AIM works is show us the profits first and then the s/p upgrade will happen, maybe.. otherwise we assume the worst...and why shouldn't it work that way as most companies on it perform badly and continually over promise and under deliver imho ( lifestyle management / white collar criminal management, dreamer management etc )

Ps: my strong advice to anyone playing AIM is that you should assume at least half the companies on it are worth zero in the medium/long-term.. which fall into that category is the first question :-)

here's the new offer, you have a few days to conclude you'll recommend it to your shareholders or the deal is off.. ie ruyi sees little time/scope for negation of new offer.

and, if my hypothesis is close to correct - and. like everybody else's guesses here mine might be miles off, of course-my advice to Bagr management would be unless its really big bad changes to previous terms : just accept it.

alternatively it could be that ruyi want, in some shape or form, to pay less... and not just ex. rate less but meaningfully less.. be that less for more a share of co.or just less for the same share.... etc ; less ( and I did sell some more again down yesterday off the back of this possibility. I now hold a small position here only )

Good luck with that silverknight.. I play AIM oilers mostly and I've learned that no matter how low they seemingly are they can always go lower :-)

Indeed, speaking of lower than low... the mtph share chart is a 'peach' example .. peak to - hopefully - trough of 300p to 3p is a mere 99% down.. frightening games we play..

ps The only other pharma I'm currently in is Indv.. bought in near bottom of latest crash - in 20's p - and still have hope on decent upside from current mid 40's p..very dangerous of course .. but aren't they all.. and this is not a tip and always do your own research.. etc...

fine posting gentlemen and very nice balance too, not least from madstpan..

AIM has thought me that the best way to be right most often in your betting views is always assume the bad cases are considerably more likely than the good...

..so no more topping up for me for the foreseeable.. and back to radio silence from me for a while.. good luck to all longs here with their BETS !

agree on the market silverknight and speaking of fragile, mtph s/p is as fragile as a butterfly.. but given the history it's not surprising imho.. again the company needs to come up with some good news for a change.. until then ruff ruff, understandably, goes the doggie..

I only have a small position left in Sureserve and am not looking to grow it out, unless it goes back to close to 20p ..which it may well not... unless the market goes well down from here..I'd sell out completely towards 40p if it were to rally to even near there... generally, 26p to 30p I see as a weak buy, 23-26p a medium buy.. and sub 23 a strong buy.. a very solid co. imho but has Grenfell enquiry still in the background, might well be ok from it granted but investors may shy away until total clarity there, all the same..

anything/everything is possible and everybody is entitled to their opinion and b/b's such as this are great for getting a multitude of thoughts out there..

as - most - all below are from a glass half full perspective, towards balance, I offer that from a glass half empty perspective they might read very differently.

I hope Bagr reach an agreement with ruyi for some sort of sale/partnership etc in the end.. but if not the free cash received etc is very welcome, of course.. but imho the s/p would likely go down at least decently from wherever it is at the time on any announcement of termination of negotiations with ruyi..

''We know 3.5p plus over a million pounds of equipment on top is the agreed price !''

'was' instead of 'is' ? (and what they're now about to propose instead is unkown at this time)

Solid performance by Mr Bird imho.. he's not particularly inspiring in any format granted imho, but from the facts he offers he has clearly made a good 'Ard Rock agreement there imho.

The background crash bang noise in the middle of the podcast made me laugh.. an irate long term shareholder gaining forcible entry to the premises perhaps ? .. but I'm thinking one of the revolutionary guards - CE or Captain Bob perhaps ? :-) - were on hand to nullify the threat quickly :-)

V O X MARKETS

competitor website :-)

Link not pasting properly I think … So best just Go to ********** web site

**************************************/series/daily-podcast

I hear you George and just got a quote for 5.99p for a small buy and so took it.. So I did get some in the 5's !

I hold more of these than I've ever previously held now - by shares but not by monies bet - and don't particularly feel like buying anymore of these now….but I might put a few k more in at the limits on any further meaningful weakness.. eg under 5.5p and under 5p.. I'd be pretty surprised if it goes under 5p though.. and hope for long suffering here it doesn't.

Surely they can come up with some good news soon.. pretty please..

I'm seeing a distinct possibility that all at Madame Una's tell you what you want to hear to keep you coming back madsktpan ? :-) And they only do happy endings too after all !!

AIM, alas, is generally the anthesis of Madame Una's.. but here's hoping.

had a very small position left from a previous - thankfully amazing - pump journey a few years back and have added some back here this week in anticipation of a June in anticipation rally :-) Good luck to all fellow holders !

''If the new terms were worse than the previous ones, I am sure the company would reject it. I think that Chinese may be proposing even a better deal soon. ''

Whatever Ruyi will now propose will very likely be less attractive than their previous proposals to bagir imho. And far from rejecting immediately, my guess is bagir will listen constructively to whatever is newly proposed and be very open to further compromise towards something positive for s/p - from these 1.5 p ish levels - being carved out of this difficult situation imho. And some sort of agreement/arrangement might still be reached soon enough and the s/p react favourably off the back imho