Member Info for NicetoMichu

Your guess may well be as good as experienced players imho peepto… as it's a game of much chance imho... but to try and be a little helpful, but probably not a lot, granted:
It won't hit a pound by year end imho.. and it won't hit 50p by year end imho.. and I'd be surprised - but not extremely so - if it hit 25p by year end...
ps: Never forget : ''It's Nigeria''

lekoil punk is.. have ben involved here for a few years now and seen much farce in wide variety of guises in this name... not least this going deep down into 3's p last week.... and the manor of II's dumping here a farce too imho.. Including way over sold and the crackerjack RNS today I'm thinking/hoping 10p to 15p range is readily doable here in the short term.. and more again in medium term, hopefully... and at this moment in time, I'm expecting/hoping not to sell and of mine in single figures... here's to plenty more fun to come here this week.. and beyond..

I've counted them again and again and again now and I can categorically confirm there are four zeros after the two in jointhe dots last paragraph below.. that said, the reason I still really rate the guy is that he didn't say which year end immediately after the 20000 bpd...

Loved that RNS this morning.. and I've used winnings from recent short term Nanoco trading to average down a lot here thru back end last week and today also.... towards going from despairing on a way down small position to very hopeful on a mid sized position with 5 ish p average now... and do see this as very -if not 'extremely' even :-) - undervalued at 4ish p.. large seller(s) running out of bullets this week hopefully.. and then hopefully a sustained rise... but as ever it's a game of chance.. so good LUCK to all fellow longs here now..

how long is a piece of string on this being undervalued or not now imho... but that 75 per cent ish fall was ridiculous, and including the fact the share had come well off ahead of that news too made it even more ridiculous imho.. but that's AIM in a nutshell.. at least in its way it sometimes/ often provides good trading opportunities for some.. fortunately me included this time.. but this also shows again that AIM is barbaric and, generally, far far more lose than win over the piece, imho..

(I still see decent potential here and so I've kept the smallish position that I started with here but my average is 11p now instead of 30p.. I have incrementally now sold down all the good few tranches I bought at between 7.75 p and 6.75p.. and have fortunately gone from a decent loss on paper to a decent gain banked here...and it's return to radio silence from me going forward for a while now.... I guess they'll do a raise sometime around q4 unless something good comes along between now and then and I may add more within or after any such raise.. good luck to al fellow holders here.. this can still come - even very - good in the medium term imho .. but twists and turns a plenty still to come, I guess..)

so if the proposed full cabinet not completely ratified by late july it will be after hols. recess in September when this exercise completes? Including subsequent deal final sign off and final stage legal/admin completing I'm hoping end Q3 will finally see this deal completely complete.. sure it could be completely complete late in July .. but it's Nigeria... that's end Q3 2019 I should add, and not q3 2020, in case of any confusion

Altogether, at one time or other in the last 5 years I've owned north of 50 AIM O&G names, and including huge peaks and troughs am altogether decently up on these AIM sector bets so far, very fortunately .. And then there's Nigeria: Of those 50 + only 3 have been Nigeria asset Co's: Afren, Lekoil and Savannah Petroleum.

I'm still trying to figure out in my head if I significantly dislike the country because of these three bets or I seriously disliked the country prior to my bets - and hence just the three bet on altogether so far - . either ways my conclusion is I seriously dislike Nigeria :-) (in fact I'd go as far to say it's a disgrace of a country imho)

I bet on oilers mostly and Amer is the best BB I've seen.. I give it an 8 or 9 for overall quality .. Abouttimes posts remind me why I equivalently give this BB a 4 :-)

confidence from Directors buys indeed.. not least as they're buying around the 12p range... amazed the didn't buy in single figures early this week .. maybe something left field- ie beyond the market s/p bounce back - has given them confidence in s/p in last 24 hours or so..

I think this s/p is very low now and so I have today done my last top here now.. but of course it can go lower: I've learned from playing AIM oilers that no matter how cheap they seem they can readily become cheaper again … altogether scary..

Holding this has been an absolute mare, but thankfully my position remains smallish... fine RNS this morning but with II(s) still dumping hard there seems to little light at end of tunnel .. but, fool that I might well be, I've done a top up this morning at 4p ish… brings my average down markedly - still way under water of course - and I'll just tuck away and hope … When II selling stops this could bounce decently .. and I'd add more again into any clear rally.. but when that might be AND from what level I have no idea.. scary..

I'm looking for two things here:

1) Director buy(s) notification(s) .. and of a decent size
2) a widely recognised/respected II reporting an increase in their holding size here (sorry Richard; I do know you from my dappling in Synairgen in fairness)

The first of these would help this s/p motor and the second motor further again imho.

Even without either I still see reasonable - but not huge - upside from here for rest of week.

Good luck to all fellow longs here.

Thanks Geng. You can't beat the old weekly chart … unless that were to fall below support too, in that case you can't beat the old monthly chart :-)

Very nice reverse in s/p trend today, in fairness.. and I, like you, fancy this decently as a medium term bet.. but it's bagir so anything can of course happen over the piece...eg twists and turns a plenty still to come I'd guess...

(generally, the company needs plenty of increases in efficiency still imho - I have some thoughts on the latest balance sheet which I've touched on previously and won't bore further on now.. but nett profitability in this financial year would be a big ask still imho - ruyi may not be asking for anything like that though, I have no clue what they want from management of course - and debt needs careful management too now imho … as long as things are going decently in the right direction though that will hopefully be enough to get Ruyi to complete... very hopefully)

a- hopefully - decent/good Q2 production/revenue update a few weeks into July allied with Gold staying over $1400 p/o allied with the forward projected figures from 'ard rock project kindly offered - via AGM - below here - and that 'ard rock project implementation now clearly on not too distant horizon, including, hopefully, some early stage 'low hanging' wins too - could/should do very nicely towards a good bounce in this s/p.. a good buying opportunity here at or around these levels at or around this time imho .. DYOR and much chance involved of course... but here's hoping ! (ps to put my money where my mouth is I did a decent top up recently, and am open to doing one more in coming weeks)

while I may have sold down 80 +% of my holding a while back I still haven't given up on this.. it kinda broke my heart over the five years I held but I have made a - small profit - from involvement here so far and including me conceptually liking this a lot I feel I therefore still owe it another go at some stage .. today's announcement doesn't surprise me and slowness in contract completion was raised as a concern by the board in a recent RNS .. so somewhat forewarned in fairness.. and this is a minor thing on a scheme of things, if those contacts complete in July/August instead of June.. the bigger issue of slowness of new contract conversion till remains though imho.. and therefore i'll only seriously look to adding back meaningfully in 2020 now I expect.. or I'd be tempted to add back at least somewhat decently on meaningful s/p weakness from here.. but it has held up ok in 2019 so far in fairness.. 7p was a target I had in mind to add back some.. we may not see that in fairness.. but a small chance we will imho..

always good to see a big hitter like Paul Curtis post here.

My guess is Barclays have no more an idea than the rest of us when this deal will complete, but most are agreed - including Barclays - that it's far more likely to complete at some stage than not.. My personal GUESS is that there will be another delay to this completing, maybe a month or three type thing.. and the s/p would go down reasonably decently further again - even from the awful 17 ish p current level - on any such announcement.. and hence the nervous selling early this week, and indeed no meaningful buying to boot.

Generally, it's mostly a game of chance.. be good and be lucky at the game I say (and the lucky being umbilically tied to the good perhaps :-) ) The race is long and good LUCK to all fellow longs here !

S/P Ticking on up nice and solidly - more than strongly granted - so far this week thankfully.. as there's ongoing good buying here a step change to strong up s/p momentum from here is very dependent on existing II's strategy for selling or holding at or around these levels.. and that's anybody's guess.. but hopefully most of the selling of those who wanted to sell 'at any price ' has been done in single figures s/p and the remainder will hold fire to allow any rally that might otherwise play out do so..... Also, how nice would a directors buying RNS be sometime this week... that would give this s/p a further pep for sure imho.. come on directors, just do it..

manifests itself in many complicated ways and this might well be one of those ways, hopefully..

again, more efficiency is required here imho.... and hopefully this will more likely now be achieved going forward..

..if that machinery is handed over free in a few months time that will be a sign to me that relevant further efficiency progress is occurring and it would also be bringing Ruyi closer again to completing that buy in next year here imho..

Ps; Not a good call here alas Geng.. but still keen to hear what your revised chart predictions are here now please .... reciprocally, my experience here and instinct has me offer that I'd be very surprised if this were to go under .75p in 2019 and hope for others very much that it doesn't.... but i'm very open to a fair few more top ups here .. and would make then iteratively bigger on any further meaningful s/p weakness.. I did another small one at 1.05p this morning... under 1p would see me do the next one .. under .90p and I'd do meaningfully bigger top up buys...

DYOR of course

impressive interims, very impressive even.. couldn't help but do a top up as I think 20's p is too low for this now.. this business is a somewhat overlooked gem imho..

(but the shadow of the previous Grenfell contract may be a factor in some peoples minds still here granted. the first more general enquiry report pushed back I read and second more specific one will therefore be too .. so a year and more still to go for final conclusions from those I guess .... and Lakehouse previously said that they expect there will be no issue found against them anyway )

DYOR of course and its all a risky game with much chance involved of course..

1p wouldn't surprise me either Hinkais.. or even a bit/somewhat lower possible too alas imho... but hopefully not for others sakes (as my position is smallish versus previous here, I feel it should be grown out decently further as we go...and getting more bang for my buck on top ups going forward is fine by me.. )

Geng, your 1.20p bottom of range has now been fallen through - I've just been quoted 1.188 to buy - so that must change the picture on your charts views here ?