Member Info for NicetoMichu

Excellent posting again MGS.. and much appreciated.

My first instinct is that you can't have 'invested ' in many African small cap oil plays 'over the years '?

I've previously /currently bet on ten plus small cap African oilers - and a few biggish/big cap ones too.. eg save.l is my biggest bet currently.. and getting out of Afren with a small loss close to my biggest betting miracle so far - and my biggest take away is that everything NEVER goes remotely close to smoothly in African O&G .. not even remotely close to remotely close.. slowness, incompetence, financial irregularities of sundry shapes and forms ..etc.. lurk around corner after corner.. and your wildest imagination couldn't come up with what left field stuff can happen as a matter of course..

So much financial bandwidth and huge focus is required for a company such as Zenith to have half a chance of cracking it .... luck is a such massive factor too..

( and range trading is the basis of playing such a game as a rule imho )

In summary, maybe divide all your 'if things go smoothly' projections by half for starters :-)

For whatever reason I've always believed this company will make good in the end... that reason may indeed be my stupidity..

At least I cut 25% off my holding a few months, back when this 'spiked' into 5 to 6p range ..sold those at around b/e too and thought things weren't all that bad here after all.. and now look where we are.. ouch and while I wish I'd sold down more, I'm just not for giving up here.. indeed I've added a few back just now to bring down my average.. and am open to adding more back too.. fool that I might easily be.. but this is a company that makes strategic sense to me.. implementation of the strategy.. well that's another matter :-)

apols.. 7plus years not 10 plus .. as only came to market in late 2104, I think

''It’s a classic false drop to allow large buys at a lower position to trade''

it has lasted 10 plus years so far ?

''I expect to look at my screen in the coming days/weeks to see a sudden spike to 50p++''

What new news are you expecting in the coming days/weeks WTF2012?

PS: Why not go with days/weeks/months .... hedging bets etc !

oh well.. Atome is beginning to feel like a bit of an anti climax for me now.. and as I was just really tired of the years of endless issues in general business here, I've decided to kinda throw in the towel here, at least until Feb when more clarity on drill results/workovers etc.. and maybe I see something to get religion back on here again .. so from 15k gbp plus bet here plenty of years back and 8k to 10k range gbp more recently, I now have a token 2k gbp placeholder left.. I only post on shares I have a holding in, so that still entitles me to post here occasionally.. but, good news for most of you here is that, I'll be annoying you much less here for at least a while to come..

And good luck to you with this punk share.. anything can happen in this game so here's to 3p by Chrimbo and 5p plus in 2022 for the long suffering here, you certainly deserve a break here.. me too indeed, but the break I've decided to give myself is one away from PL /PPC for a while...( ps I'm now more or less breakeven in my journey here.. given where I started betting here at and where we're now at I'm happy with that )

My range trading has been close to non existent in xtr recently howezap.. more volatility needed for that for me here.. Yourself?

(Crypo absolutely not for me .. I have pretty large exposure to AIM generally and that's hardcore gambling enough for me. :-) Indeed, the longer I play the AIM game the more I understand the extent of the risk involved: AIM seriously lacks liquidity generally, and that can be one hell of a problem.. eg if/when lead global markets correct meaningfully )

Accepting assay results are a crucial tangible thing here, and we still have many more of those to come in q1 from this Aus drilling phase, one general factor that's very important to encouraging a strong share price rally is that deep pocketed players that might be interested in getting involved here need be crystal clear that there is not a raise likely even remotely soon.. as they'll always look for such 'off market entry' if at all possible, naturally for them and annoyingly for 'us'.

CB's insight on likely Africa revenue even in Q1 2022 might, alas, still not be that clear.. and that's complicating..
but IF he was confident he wouldn't need to do a raise until at least q4 2022 - or ideally never have to raise etc - by holding off next phase drilling in Aus until q2 2022, then, on balance, I'd be for that .. but including there being cons to this path too.. I'm far from religious on this view.. especially as I see the 'race' I'm involved in here as a few year one that started in 2021 and has plenty of twists and turns to come (I've had a long limbering up exercise for many years before 2021 in xtr granted.. but not as long as some others here , in fairness .. was Captain Bob an Assistant to the Assistant Junior Cadet when he first bet on Xtrract for eg ? :-))

That AC concluded any 'Option Agreement' and certainly one which involved buying a 42% equity stake in NHNL, strongly suggests that no such disclosure was made.

Or that AC is in 'punk punter' mode at the moment ? :-)

even if plenty of the trades showing as sells are actually buys, it's sad that reasonable amounts of selling is happening here at such an historically low s/p of 21-23p range...

Generally, while I don't see todays news as bottom line major, I see it as progressive and decent.. and this stock seems so awfully in the doldrums nowadays.. especially given Mr Stamp has significantly steadied the ship financially and has seemingly semi decent licencing prospect opportunities in 2022 too..

Very well written Florida.. and absolutely appropriate you sent him such a letter too.. (imho)

why couldn't they release this pre market open ? .. would have been far more useful for me and many others too I expect ..as I've only by good luck seen this 30 mins after release now.. good news btw and especially from these lowly s/p levels roll on a good rally please !

Thanks for your seemingly impressive responses ageos .. and Florida's response does a good job covering the potential litigation angle here that might add further complication on top here too ....

If this drill was going to cost substantially less than $20m dollars, I'm amazed that AC has not given at least some such context in that RNS . This is close to drill ready and so the contract counterparty is known and the costs broadly agreed/known too imho.. and from my reading of that RNS they'll be a hell of a lot closer to $20m than your 'interesting' $5m possibility... eg definitely no lower than $13m dollars is my bet and probably higher than that .. which would still be far too big a commitment by zen currently imho.

Generally, my view is that AC is showing impetuosity born out of frustration and has moved from a semi-structured plan A approach to somewhere around plan C currently, which I'd sum up only a little jokingly as: quickly throwing as much money as he can get his hands on - via every avenue possible - in a scatter gun way in hope as much as expectation... again, here's hoping he's lucky !

Aside: Re how early stage oil&gas plays work .. I'm in about 6 or 7 such casino oiler explorer bets at any one time - and have been in 30 plus in last 7 years, working on a laws of averages basis across the p/f of them and fortunately have done well/very well altogether - and do get how the games is played a lot... and still like this bet a lot less at the end of this year than I did at the start of this year..so roll on Tilapia good news asap and a s/p spike and a further dump from me :-).. and my guess - as well as hope - is this Nigeria option will not be taken up in the end anyway btw

Was hoping the free Atome shares might be worth 30 to 40 per cent of my ppc holding value.. but 20 odd per cent it is.. and they're free, in fairness.. so just need to downgrade my expectations on where this s/p might go and hope that we mount some sort of attack on 3p at some stage in Dec.. possible but a good distance from probable imho..so I've adjusted my exit target down a bit... it wasn't high anyways.. and indeed out of sense of anti climax even I dumped a few earlier today..and I'm not sure I'd leave this ppc 'party' entirely whatever.. as the company can of course get it right in Argentina one day.. and the s/p could go up a lot if that were to happen imho ..

''We view the risk profile of drilling B-5 as low to medium primarily, amongst other factors, due to the strongly confirmed presence of hydrocarbons in nearby wells accessing the same formations.''

So what CoS % range might this translate to.. 35% - 65% would be my finger in the air guess .. IF this option is taken up, AC is effectively betting the company on this one drill being successful imho.. If it was a 5m gbp costing drill that would be a proportionally acceptable bet in my mind. And there's lots of other good stuff of more proportional nature brewing gently here.. and he then goes and - potentially - does this. I was incredulous when I first read that RNS and even giving myself some cool down and think time it still remains punk behaviour in my mind.. and I very much hope, one way or other, this option is not taken up.

Very much appreciated Hamz74 ...and extremely well written too imho.
Thanks!

(There's much life in this doggy yet imho.. but high risk binary type bet without a doubt)

fair play and good response imho comeonvog ( ps I hope it wasn't just after you told her how much you were down on ppc and vog that your wife started ignoring you :-) )

You're frighteningly good at this stuff in fairness, Iceberg...and that's very much appreciated !
(On the other hand all I've got is: thank goodness the Brits and not the Aussies are now naming the porphyries
eg Ascot versus Footrot)

Accepting stevens49 has just clarified his position, and I have no reason to question what he says.. there's a more generally important point I'm referring to here:

You're long the stock and either completely disregard or flit over the - many - negatives here, and focus hard on the positives comeonvog.. how would that be different to someone who is short focusing on the negatives.. or someone who actively trades this and has sold some and wants the s/p to come down somewhat to buy back in.... .
i.e. Your posting is talking your 'book' endlessly here.. and that entitlement should apply to everyone, whatever their 'book', and not just you.

I've just taken WSBN off my watchlist :-)