Member Info for NicetoMichu

You're a top info. poster here 2phevs.. very much appreciated for this latest and sundry other posts ! (and that podcast excited me further on ies.l)

And nice to see this s/p ticking back up a little .. I remain very keen to see what happens here if/when it breaks through 45p.. this s/p, versus previous levels, is still very much on its knees.. as the likes of urbanspaceman will no doubt confirm.. so plenty of room for significant s/p upside from here, hopefully...

DYOR & IMHO

... I'd like to quote Shakespeare...But as I can't...I'll instead offer:

To have ones pant down or not to have ones pant down - around this time - that is the question?

I'll admit to having my pants plenty - but not all the way - down around now.. but with the likes of poster Dick_updabum and Richard SmallWood on the prowl here, I'll admit to be being concerned about you all shouting in unison 'he behind you.. he behind you ' (aka LP drops ahead of v spud)

It's hard core gambling.. and we each place our bets - or not - as we see fit... good luck to all... however you might see this play out....

He said 300p to 600p, in fairness :-)

I didn't even respond to that one in my posts this earlier evening.... wanted to discourage industrial strength drug taking !

Poster Dick_Updabum is a new name to me here .. what pantomime we continue to have here!

He should see more and more posters now with pant down here as a great opportunity, Sir ? And if he predicts 15p too.. then posters with pant down should think long and hard, Sir?

1p s/p predictions here is pant down / pull out small number....

1p like 1 inch number..... 10p like 10 inch number ..etc .. Sir

Wise Owl predict 15p soon, Sir .. And he always keeps pant up to support his big number, Sir !

Does all go remotely ever to plan in this game? I'm in at least 10 AIM - or non AIm in this case - O&G'ers at any one time and have been in approx 40 over the last 10 years.... and ask again does all ever go remotely to plan in this game ?? or anything ever go remotely to plan even I sometimes ask myself ??

ps the AIm darling Zephyr - which went through the roof in 2022 - has had a rude awakening this year versus 'plan' (I'm still very thankful for it.. and sundry others too .. eg Petro Matad a range traders dream for many years now )

I was in Amerisur and hurricane and the story nothing like that.. this is signalled to be a JV and not a buy out .. a buy out when business gets further advanced off the back of this JV a possibility too I grant you..

Ps JV's with medium or big players are far more on medium / big guys terms - buyers market - in this game nowadays.. and deals are structured towards achieving medium term / long term win wins.. so big upfront payments very rare indeed.. etc.. hence why i'd see a decent to good JV more than excellent one.. and hence why s/p short term up tick may not be as big s plenty might hope for if/when JV gets over the line..

Fields development costs will be ongoing.. monies from these bonds will get us so far .. hopefully, thereafter, nett revenue will fund development costs .. and repaying the bonds too.. actually, a JV partner helping carry - much - of this money spend load would be hugely important on top here imho..

After debt repayment and investment spend, it's the nett profitability of business as a whole .. and potential for dividends off the back... that markets care a lot about nowadays... ( as well as on sale value.. but in a transition to green economy World that's generally valued at a lot - proven , probable, etc ...- less than it was even 5 years ago for eg )

If a good JV is attained in 2023 AND this continues along the increasing production path it's now getting on then 20p by year end here would be a massive achievement imho.. ( without a decent /good JV happening in 2023, i'd be thrilled if this gets to 10p by year end, but would have serious reservations that it would )

Talking £1 stock when it's 4 odd p is delusional and insulting imho ..

(I'm not saying this couldn't get too 5000 bpd or plenty more again in due course.. I'm saying that if it did get to producing 5000 barrels per day, that, in the round, wouldn't end up equating to anything remotely near £1 per share .. not remotely, remotely close to that even)

Generally, if someone came on here and said this is going to 1p they'd get smashed.. So, towards balance, I offer:

From wide experience, the uber bulls are the ones that cost your average small cap participant far more than the shorters.. as the uber bulls are so very often incredibly wrong, across any time frame.

It has been an awful journey for me here.. but I continue to hang on in.. indeed I topped up off the back of that 22 results RNS, as it was better than I expected.. and s/p is in the toilet..

That interview felt solid to me .. and that's ok given what's gone before...

Obviously, given that awful history, it remains hope more than expectation for me here..

...if they could find a way of getting one chunky good margin new business deal over the line in half two .. alongside his forecast ongoing incremental revenue growth across the businesses... then this s/p can recover significantly imho.. after all the MC is under 5m gbp here now.. and the business seems to - hopefully - be moving into sustainable profitability now...

BUT

Still for high risk takers only... this punk share

DYOR / IMHO

I purposefully said 'pretty clear' on my view on the strategy here more than very clear, howezap.. as the thought of a raise whenever in the future is always a possibility, granted.. BUT, I'd be angry/gutted with CB if he undertook a market raise for further Bushranger development at anything under 3.5p Howezap.. and I think he just wouldn't do a raise at anything under 2.5p... in 2023 at least .... and with AIM market on its knees generally and the s/p currently way off 3p, the next phase of Bushranger drilling will all be from Treasury is my best guess.. half from treasury and half from raise had crossed my mind.. but a smaller next phase drill there from Treasury only is the best route imho..

(There may be another Bushranger drill phase after that granted.. or there may not .. the funding of that i'll not concern myself with as too many other variables on the more immediate h2 23 in h1 24 horizon)

Frustrating as it may be, until CB has a clear view on when there might be very approx. 2m USD surplus funds sitting on xtr's books, he sees no point in even starting the process of planning the next phase of Bushranger drilling, is my view

(The strategy of xtr doing a next phase Bushranger drill when affordable from Africa Project income remains a pretty clear one in my mind, the timing of that next drill phase a little - but not a lot - less clear)

So while building out the cash kitty is in early train, it will be 'at best' mid q3 2023 before CB has has a decent view on revenue to xtr run rate from fairbride thru q4 2023 on into 2024 .... and only then of soon after - eg later q3 or early q4 even - would he see it appropriate to even start planning the next phase of Bushranger drilling...

(How he manages news flow around Bushranger .. eg economic assessment study already done but not released ... pre concentration preliminary investigation .. revising economic assessment off back of this ...etc.. is 'unfortunate' imho: CB clearly manages xtr 'newsflow' FAR more in an as he sees fit fashion than in a when available/full disclosure fashion ..

So, 'best' case in my mind next phase Bushranger drilling starts late 2023.... but it might easily be in 2024 either..

Generally, sure I'm unhappy with where we're at in various senses here; the pace of progress generally has been and remains slow, of course... but the s/p is my biggest annoyance here now, and even including CB's Bulls**t, I still think it should be 2p minimum now...

But I do have a fairly clear view on the strategy here.. and, off the back of that view, a sale of Bushranger later in 24 would be very pleasing to me .. .. I don't see it earlier than that, and I can see it later that that (and the eventual sale price could be anything between 15m USD and 100m USD in my mind)

Towards finishing on a high note, I'm genuinely excited by fairbride revenue to xtr in second half 23 and all 24 and all 25 and all 26 .. etc.. and for that alone I do not think it's fair and reasonable that this s/p is under 2p around now

I'll take a moment to defend Mr WOS here :

Perhaps WOS has been overly bullish on the LP dropping 'very soon now' for a long - long - time because that's the only way his missus will let him go remotely near a with or without feather party ?.... If this Pony comes in and he buys her a worldy present off the back then without feather party it will be, Sir, for Mr WOS ?!

From his ten k ish posts here it feels unlikely he gets let out much.. and perhaps happy endings granted on Birthday, Christmas and otherwise very occasionally, for exceptional hooting ?

So give Mr WOS a break please !

And good weekend to you all .

PS: he has got very good content too.. (but AIM is mostly about luck, of course )

Thanks Hounddog.. a good listen and I'm pretty excited.... obviously sundry meaningfully good news RNS's are now required in Q3 and q4 2023 .. here's hoping !

The forward guidance on this recent RNS is very positive...alas, they've over promised and undelivered A LOT here previously .. but I'm cautiously - very even - optimistic this time round... and a couple of clearly meaningful to the bottom line RNS's over the coming few months will convince me this company is finally in train to living up to its huge potential.. so I have cash set aside and will be keeping a close eye on this towards looking to average down significantly - for me - here later in summer, hopefully.. (tempted to do a small top up in 6's p in June as well too.. but trying to make myself hold off on that until next RNS, at least)

Per taskmasters posts charters may be getting involved in buying here now too .. as a golden cross is a big signal for some....

..strange share this and its illiquidity can mean punchy moves in either direction on not a lot of volume.. going back to low 30's one more time very recently an eg of such a punchy - down - move .. returning now again to early 40's I therefore don't see as meaningful rally ..... others might though... .but this moving past 45p would be a significant up move imho... and that could mean breakout in train.. and plenty higher again to come.. etc..

(charting not something i have any meaningful time for on generally.. especially on AIM.. each to their own though..)

Thanks Ben 'owell.. Wisieowl ..

For the record, as well as few tick ups ever, I've never had a private message thanking me for my posting here or elsewhere .. so you're making me look less good now Ma Baker :-( (Btw I hope those private thank you messages are not all from Ma Baker to Ma Baker ?! )

Ps: Going early to get in ahead of Ben 'Owell : I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend.

I count 10 more than 5 ticks ups now Ma Baker.. and no ticks up for you post, alas..

Generally, have any of your posts here ever had a tick up here, I wonder. ..not that it concerns you I'll guess !

(I get very few ticks up on my posts here and widely as a rule, in fairness.. but you make the few I do get look 'ok' all of a sudden ...so thanks for that :-)...PS: My line to myself is the more tick ups I get on LSE BB's the more money I generally lose on AIM.. so I don't feel bad with few tick ups ...... indeed you might even think you'll crack the AIM game off the back of so few tick ups; when the vast majority of players who get lots of tick ups fail at it in whatever shape or form, in my experience ! ...and you are of course as entitled to your opinion as the next person is theirs.... and a good BB is a broad church.. etc.. )

Be careful what you wish for Steve V .. as any overall company buy out bid might be very/pretty low indeed - in the eyes of medium term holders not to mnd long term holders - around now.. I also accept that this being Art's 'baby' is a huge thing re dictating this stays under his control too.. So I just don't envisage an outright company bid fron that potential JV partner.. but I do believe a decent to goodJV for the deep assets has a decent to good chance of favourably concluding in q3 or q4 2023

More generally, the lower the s/p goes the stronger the potential JV partner might understand its negotiating position to be too...Understood it's somewhat more complicated than that... but including the technical scoping took much longer than Art semingly originally envisaged.. and the commercials finer details negotiations taking plenty of time already and are - seemingly - indicated to take at least a reasonable degree more time too, gives me the feeling that the potential JV partner is open to a decent/good JV deal for COPL more than a great JV deal for COPL....