Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
With the LSE getting a nice bump today, and the bid on the TSX up a tiny bit -- just a question to see if anyone has heard any rumours or is the 30% rise in Tamboran (and residual 10% move up on the LSE) all related to Tamboran's move to start trading today in the USA???
Just for those Falcon owners on the LSE or pink sheets in the US -- the bid/ask ratio on the TSX has improved dramatically over the past week.
The CDN price remains at Friday's close of 13.5 cents, but that shouldn't hold for long -- as there is currently 1.5 million shares on the bid side from 11 cents to 13 cents, and only 93,000 on the ask side from 13.5 cents to 16 cents. This is the highest differential between the bid/ask ratio in years and bodes well for price appreciation going forward, (and maybe even my break-even price of 17 cents will be reached -- LOL).
Many thanks Hardrock, Your technical point of view is most welcome to all of us of this Board -- who kind of understand the general theory of what is involved in the fracking and completion process, but certainly none of the in-depth industry experience that you bring to the Board. I am assuming SW is short for Slick Water in this context.
Do you have any feel or insight -- as to whether the added thickness of the B shale at the SSH1 location (300 feet) "might" lead to a slightly higher flow rate if the frack at 2200 lbs/ft of proppant intensity has resulted in much longer lateral fracks extending out further out from the well bore (if the well bore was positioned closer to the center of that 300' of B shale)??
Fingers still crossed (ouch) for a nice flare later next week and awesome flow numbers 30 days later. GLA
hardrock -- you might have seen this posting by smallfish on the hotcopper tamboran board already, but if not here is what he posted below. with your knowledge and background in the industry (great call about condor having to wait for more horsepower by the way), i would be very interested in your thoughts on whether there is any real concern about the ssh1 flow results given smallfish's comments about pumping 160 barrels per minute instead of the 100 barrels that condor did, and 2200 lbs per foot being a pretty low number for that reservoir??
"happy to that the frac went well, the parameters are mid line for north american practices.
despite sheffield yowling away about how great 5.5 inch casing is, they didn't need it to pump 100 bbls/min. yes there is a slight reduction in friction but i'm left wondering if the pumpers aren't available to push the high end of the range of 160 bbls/min that the 5.5 in casing could take if the metallurgy is right. the reservoir could sure use it!
2,200 lbs per foot is pretty pedestrian and is about 40% below what the reservoir deserves.
fluid volumes matter...a lot! they are not reported, deficiency in fluid volume could impact this result
last, just because sheffield's statements in hart energy seemed lazy and uninformed and **** me off, i sure hope they got the fluid chemistry right. he cited that previous wells weren't slickwater which is baloney. sure, there are wells that haven't been made public, but they've all been slick. the statement suggests that he oversaw the frac at amungee and for some bizarre reason allowed gel to be pumped in the frac.
Thanks ilvelo. Here is the main copy of the press release on the completion of the Condor fracking process:
https://hotcopper.com.au/data/announcements/ASX/2A1493028_TBN.pdf
EP 117 Operational Update: Successful completion of SS-1H stimulation
program, preparing to commence flow back and IP30 testing
Highlights
• Tamboran, on behalf of the Beetaloo Joint Venture (BJV), has successfully completed the 10-
stage stimulation program over a 500-metre (1,640-foot) horizontal section of Mid-Velkerri B Shale
within the Shenandoah South 1H (SS-1H) well in Beetaloo Basin permit EP 117.
• The stimulation program at SS-1H delivered a proppant intensity of 2,212 pounds per foot (lb/ft)
and achieved rates of 100 barrels per minute (bpm) using slickwater, a first in the Mid Velkerri B
Shale and in-line with current US shale basin stimulation designs.
• Tamboran plans to install production tubing ahead of the commencement of flow back of
stimulation fluid and 30-day initial production (IP30) testing in mid-December 2023, subject to
timing of gas breakthrough.
Tamboran Resources Limited (ASX: TBN) Managing Director and CEO, Joel Riddle, said:
“The operations team have done an excellent job in completing the stimulation program at the SS-1H well
as expected. Thank you to our team and contractors for their efforts in completing the successful program.
“The operations went extremely well with the team achieving injection rates of up to 100 bpm, a Beetaloo
Basin rate record, and average proppant injection per stage of 356,000 pounds, in line with our initial
design. The team engineered a repeatable stimulation formula, which is a significant milestone for
Tamboran that is expected to lead to more efficient and lower cost programs in the future.
“Most importantly, the success of the program positions us to announce IP30 flow rates during the first
quarter of 2024, subject to timing to flow back stimulation fluid and weather conditions. Delivery of
commercial flow rates is expected to allow us to progress towards the sanctioning of the proposed 40
MMcf/d Pilot Project at Shenandoah South during the first half of 2024.”
Thanks ITguy -- as I wasn't aware of this new deal between the Green Party and the Labour Party that was passed on Monday.
This new legislation appears to be about forcing all the oil and gas companies to make sure that any damage to waterways or water resources are the total responsibility of the gas company and must be cleaned up to pristine condition on their dime??
If anyone (maybe Hardrock might have some insight) can tell us more about why this legislation could be any kind of a major headache for companies like Tamboran -- (and why anyone would dump all their stock on this new legislation) it would be appreciated if you could post that to the Board please.
Sure doesn't feel like it will ever end tda4, as the pain seems to never end with Falcon!!!
That being said -- we might get some relief towards the end of January, but not soon enough to prevent some of the tax loss selling that might take place in the next two weeks. That appears to be what the big sell on the TSX was today with a market order to sell around 1.2 million shares at whatever price was being bid this morning.
Given the comparisons of the SSH1 well to the Tanumbirini H3 well (that Santos drilled and then installed production tubing more than two years ago), I think we are finally going to see commercial level flow rates by the end of January. The Tanumbirini H3, after production tubing was installed, had a commercial flow of 3.1 mm cu.ft. per day from only ten fracks across 600 meters. Since the SSH1 is at the same depth, and pressures as the Santos H3 well, with even thicker velkerri B shale than the Tanumbirini H3 at 300 feet of thickness at SSH1 -- so there is no reason why we shouldn't see something fairly similar via flow rates by end of January -- if they finally get one right . I was going to say "hopefully" again, but enough with that word -- so let's go with absolutely for a nice change :-)
Just a quick post to see if there has been any leaks of bad news from the SSH1 well that Condor should be finishing up in four or five days time??
Someone on the TSX either got a whiff of bad news from the SSH1 site or MOST LIKELY decided to do some tax loss selling and put in a SELL AT MARKET order for 1.2 million shares?? This sell order caused Falcon on the TSX to drop from 12.5 cents (where I had purchased a few yesterday -- sheesh) all the way down to 7 cents CDN . The price on the TSX has rebounded a bit -- up to 10.5 cents CDN.
Just a fun thought on a boring Sunday, in between shoveling snow!!
POQ and Riddle should more accurately start calling the natural gas buried deep in the Beetaloo -- as "Swamp Gas" as opposed to a Fossil Fuel -- LOL.
At the COP 23 Climate Conference (in a massive oil and gas exporting nation no less) the Environmentalists are all wearing pins that say NO FOSSIL FUELS, which given the extreme's we are seeing in weather this past year -- certainly has some validity.
That being said, we do know that the Beetaloo shale gas has very strong merits for producing electricity in Aussie land when renewables aren't meeting peak demand, and even more importantly for saving the Planet -- by reducing the number of coal fired plants in Asia (1000's of them in China and India with construction on-going for more than 100 new massive coal fired electricity plants each year).
The Beetaloo natural gas could easily be promoted as "Swamp Gas" -- which maybe fewer environmentalists would protest against -- (but who am I kidding -- LOL). The natural gas in the Beetaloo does not have it's origins from old carboniferous forests like most natural gas fields, but rather from billion year old primordial slime and ooze that existed long before the forests, and dinosaurs!!
That billion year old primordial slime is probably the saving grace for Falcon and Tambo investors to eventually see Beetaloo gas finally come into production -- when other gas fields (like Barossa at 18% CO2) probably won't. That very old slime morphed into extremely low 3-4% CO2 methane gas over the millennium due to the fact that the origin of the Beetaloo gas is not from much higher CO2 carboniferous forests like most traditional gas fields.
The flow results from Tanumbirini 3H -- after production tubing was installed -- may give us a better clue on what we might expect to see from the SSH1 well that is currently being fracked by Condor.
Tanumbirini was only fractured ten times over a 600 meter length in the Velkerri B shale,, and currently Condor will be doing ten fracks in the Velkerri B shale over a 500 meter length at SSH1. Since the depths and pressures for both the Tanumbirin 3H and the SSH1 are very comparable, (with potentially Shenandoah having a small advantage due to the extra thickness of the B shale at SSH1, and the use of 5.5 inch casing that theoretically could allow more propellant for longer vertical fractures) -- hopefully (there is that darn word again) we see similar flow rates from SSH1??
Here are the results from the Tanumbirini 3H after ten fracks, and after production tubing was installed, which is also planned for SSH1:
"The T3H well delivered an average IP30 flow rate of 3.1 (mmscfd) over a 600-metre completed
horizontal section (normalised at 5.2 mmscfd over 1,000-metres) since re-commencement of flow
testing in August 2022 following the installation of production tubing".
Scinceday1, the timing on the 30 day flow results most likely won't be released until the first half of January, but if they are in EXCESS of 2mm cu ft over the 500 meter horizontal -- then both Tambo and Falcon should have a nice move up. The 90 day test, if the decline rate is in line with good Marcellus wells, should give both stocks another bump up.
The 90 day test will hopefully be around the time that Tamboran has completed another raise, but this time on the American exchanges. This should also be when the Pilot production program is detailed for when and exactly where -- if the SSH1 results continue to be good. This should add another strong bounce up in the share price -- especially with lots of rumours on who may end up being Sheffield's main partner to develop the Beetaloo?
You should be able to buy Tambo when it starts trading in the US, but it may be worth waiting to see the SSH1 results first -- as Tambo needs success there even more than Falcon due to very low cash reserves. A broker here in Canada should be able to tell you how best to pick up Tambo shares at that time.
Here is today's update from Tambo on when they expect to be trading in the US. Tambo's stock will look really good when it does start trading in the US -- but remember that they are proposing a 200 for 1 rollback in pricing. As WetWater has mentioned in the past -- these massive rollbacks only work when the company has very positive news to report. Like all of us Falcon holders, the Tambo holders will be praying (no looking hoping as that is not strong enough LOL) for commercial indications from Shenandoah.
Update of Indicative Scheme Timetable
Tamboran Resources Limited (ASX: TBN) (the “Company” or “Tamboran”) provides the following update on
the proposed scheme of arrangement pursuant to which it is proposed that Tamboran Resources Corporation
(“Tamboran US HoldCo”) will acquire 100% of the shares in Tamboran from its shareholders in exchange
for the issue of CHESS Depository Interests in Tamboran US HoldCo, as more fully described in the Scheme
Booklet (the “Scheme”). Revised Scheme Timetable:
Implementation Date:
Scheme Consideration to be issued to Scheme Shareholders on the Implementation Date
Wednesday, 13 December 2023
Tamboran US HoldCo CDIs to commence trading on a normal T+2
settlement basis on ASX
Thursday, 14 December 2023
James and Longknife,
This is a bit of conjecture on my part, but I think this step of setting POQ's minimum payout is more in alignment with shareholders interest -- due to the fact that it makes any unwanted attempts to gain control of Falcon a slightly more expensive option.
If some unwarranted third party was attempting to gain control of Falcon by snapping up a few hundred million cheap shares on the open markets -- this kind of golden handshake is often more to let prospective suitors know it will cost them more (and will most likely be fought by existing large shareholders if the share price is too low -- which it has been for a long time.
Hardrock, only because you have your ear to the ground (probably literally once in a while) -- I am wondering if you have heard whether the Condor crew and equipment are fully on site at the Shenandoah well??
I have been expecting that either Tamboran or Falcon would have updated us by now with only nine days left in November, but dead silence from both -- which is always a worry!!
Falcon is good stock to not pay any attention to Longknife -- as we have no idea what is going on with the fracking and when it might or might not start anytime soon. There was mention a few weeks ago in a Tamboran's press release -- that Condor was mobilizing their equipment to head from Brisbane to Daly Waters. However, like mobilizing an army -- we have no idea where Condor is stopping for rest and recuperation in this long march westward :-)
RichGreenwood, while what you are suggesting seems to make sense given that both Falcon and Tamboran are trading around the same price point, but you might want to look at Tamboran's G&A burn rate over the past 18 months -- as Falcon's burn is miniscule by comparison. Since the price point is go close for both -- why not just sell your Falcon shares and move over to Tamboran -- as you your costs to make the switch would be very low and you wouldn't have to worry about Falcon's burn rate at all??
However, you may want to wait until the Shenandoah flow rates are announced before making the very cost effective switch to Tamboran?? There is a reasonable chance that Tamboran could be looking at a fairly comprehensive reorganization with a complete change of management -- if the Shenandoah doesn't flow at something close to 2mm cf/d over that 500 meter frack.
Since the current Tamboran plan for any kind of future success is based upon the Pilot Production plant to NOW be to located at the Shenandoah site, anything less that commercial flows will have both Falcon and Tamboran dropping to severe new lows on the various exchanges. Any failure for commercial flows at Shenandoah -- will slam the door on Tamboran's future production plans and drive both stocks to all-time new lows.
If that were to happen -- then Falcon will still be the better play, in my humble opinion, as any kind of new restructuring of Tamboran -- (when Brian Sheffield takes over and hopefully makes the decision to continue at the Amungee site) would still leave Falcon with enough financial resources to participate in an Amungee H3 fracking program. Falcon would also still have the same 22.5% ownership rights along with the options on where or when Falcon wants to participate in 6400 acre drilling blocks or not going forward.
Not that it will necessarily help, but all long term Falcon shareholders should get a little metaphysical and give the Shenandoah fracking campaign all the good vibes that we possibly can!!! Maybe a little positivity right now might help that 500 meter frack to flow commercial as this one is almost our last gasp :-)
Thanks schlemiel, I used to get the Cenkos updates for free, but now the Tennyson Securities update is only available for no charge to UK Investors. The following is all I get when I clik on the link:
Subscription:
Please Note - Offering only for UK investors.
schlemiel -- Would you or someone else in the UK take a read through the Tennyson update on Falcon just out today called "The Final Countdown" and post anything that is actually NEW to the Board please?? Hopefully, Tennyson is calling this the Final Countdown to finally successful commercial flows and not the Final Countdown for Falcon after a dozen years of disappointing results since 2014.
Many Thanks Hardrock -- as cherries are my second favorite and actually grown in export quantities down the street from my place.
Not exactly sure what a wine-rack development is, but can kind of see some sort of stacking structure, but wine is definitely a favorite -- so maybe better vintages down the line --LOL.
Hopefully the forecast for Daly Waters is accurate, for the Condor frack team to get set-up -- as it looks predominantly dry and very warm for the following week. Clik on the Daly Waters little black square to see the upcoming forecast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map7day.shtml