Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Good point merloid, but not everyone can wait another two or three years to sell a few Falcon shares -- as age, health, and family obligations can sometimes require some added cash flow. Hopefully (that word again) no one has to sell at these depressed prices -- unless they have Tambo shares instead -- (like dprussky and a few others smarter investors -- LOL).
Just a correction on my earlier numbers on where Falcon should realistically be trading when compared to Tamboran's close today at 24 cents. Tamboran has 1,972 billion shares outstanding currently (as the all of the latest round of financing has not been completed) for a market cap today of $463 million. If Falcon were on a level trading footing with Tamboran -- with Tambo at 24 cents -- then Falcon would need to have a market cap today of $243 million Cdn which equates to 23.5 cents Cdn for Falcon's 1,044 billion shares outstanding.
Falcon's lower market cap comparison is due to Tamboran having 38.5% of the Beetaloo versus Falcon's 22.5%. This price point of 23.5 cents Cdn for Falcon also does not take into account Falcon's much lower ORRI's of 3% versus Tambo's current 9% in ORRI obligations to BS and Origin. Falcon on the TSX is currently back up to 16 cents Cdn -- so only 7.5 cents to get back to par with Tambo -- hopefully (LOL) soon!!!
Frackme -- Falcon is like the old Rodney Dangerfield quote in that "Falcon gets no respect" -- sheesh.
Tamboran's market cap today is $515 million Aussie (finished at 24 cents Aussie) and Falcon on the TSX currently is set to open at 13 cents in one hours time. This 13 cent price point would give Falcon a market cap of $145 million CDN. Two weeks ago Falcon's market cap was only about 35% less than Tambo's market cap and today Tambo's market cap is a massive 3 1/2 times greater than Falcon's cap.
What is the difference between these two companies -- constant promotion and marketing for Tambo!!! The only good news is that the current $515 million market cap for Tamboran will help drive the overall interest in the Beetaloo higher, and eventually Falcon may see some promotion that highlights Falcon's better capital management and much lower overall ORRI obligations when or if the shale gas starts to flow commercially.
First Question for the Board -- with some flaring happening now -- would that indicate that the production tubing and possibly nitrogen lift have been completed -- or could that still be in progress??
Second Question -- SmallFish on the Tambo board (where all posters are cheering about the stock price) posted the following regarding the size of the flare from seven days ago and two days ago. I am wondering if these height numbers might be accurate and if so -- are they as promising as indicated by SmallFish??
"Roughly measures 67 meters last image, 80 in this one...that's a pretty big flare".
Too funny WillowGrove -- and as my son can attest probably true!!!
Best laugh in a while, and all the best to you and everyone on this Board as we now start the countdown to the 30 day commercial flow rates. Given the quality of the ex-Pioneer team that oversaw this completion process from start to finish on the SSH1 -- I think this is going to be Falcon's year (but then again I have said that for ten years now -- LOL).
WillowGrove -- both Tamboran and Falcon have said that any flow rate announcement won't happen until they have a full 30 day consistent flow rate. This flaring satellite picture today would indicate an announcement somewhere around the last week of January.
POQ's compensation is around $600 thousand per annum and he has approximately 13 million stock options -- that have an exercise price on average about 14 cents Cdn.
Marshmill -- if you are monitoring the Board over the holidays -- you might have to move your stink bid well above 10 cents Cdn -- now that we have confirmation that the SSH1 gas has broken through to surface and is being flared.
This news on flaring should help Falcon shares in N. America regain most of what was lost on final few minutes of Friday's trading I believe. Additionally -- if someone was manipulating that share price on Friday, in order to buy many more shares on the cheap next week, -- I think they are going to be disappointed with this flaring today as Falcon should move swiftly higher on Tuesday's trade as commerciality is now a big step closer.
Scargs -- just in case dprussky has already started to celebrate with too much whisky -- LOL -- here is how to see the flare fairly easily.
Clik on the Sentinel satellite shot that Thij very kindly posted below. Then scroll in so that the tiny SSH1 well pad fills up almost your entire computer screen. Then clik on the SWIR button on the left hand panel of the Sentinel page. In middle right side of that close in picture of the SSH1 well site -- you should see an orange glow the spreads just outside the right middle edge of the SSH1 well site. That is the flaring of Velkerri B shale gas taking place!!!
Thanks WW,
I understand the point about not doing the dog and pony shows to promote Falcon when there is no real positive news to announce. What I fail to understand is why there hasn't been a great many more meetings and presentations over the past year (using Joe Nally's and Cavendish's connections) to the bigger investment banks and investment funds -- that should realistically want to own Falcon at these ridiculously low prices -- for the bigger win one or two years from now.
To my way of looking at this 40% pullback in Falcon on low volume yesterday -- If POQ and Joe Nally had of been out doing more presentations to deep pocket investors this past year (that buy when there are retail whimps panic selling on only $20,000 worth of Falcon shares) -- these massive price drops would not be so severe and very short lived.
Tamboran is doing a much bettter job of promotion and now instead of Tamboran having a market cap that is 30% higher than Falcon's (like it was a month ago) Tamboran has a market cap that is 300% higher than Falcon (with less free cash flow and an ORRI obligation that is 3 times greater than Falcon's) -- so Falcon's better story is not getting told anywhere that counts!!!
PS -- Marshmill -- put a stink bid in for next week and you can probably get Falcon for under 10 cents again, but with Falcon giving up all of the gains from last week -- you may want to wait?? This kind of price drop for Falcon is very indicative of what happened when news leaked about the Amungee H2 so called skin issue!!
Otd2000 -- probably the same as the dismal finish on the TSX down over 6 cents in the past couple of days -- with all the gains now completely gone with the price at 12.5 cents on the TSX.
This is classic repeat of the same thing that happens with this stock every time there is a bit of excitement about future flow rates. This is where a total lack of promotional efforts on the part of Falcon are disappointing a whole new bunch of buyers and a repeat of the same disappointment for long term holders as well.
Last week we had a few million shares bought as the share price moved up to the recent high of 18.5 cents on the TSX -- and now with no promotion or big investment funds on tap -- those same buyers from last week are now wishing they had NOT bought a single share with the price dropping faster than the new buyers can sell out--- sheesh,.
All the best over the Holidays to everyone on this wonderful Falcon Board -- as this Board is the only reason I am still in this never-ending story!!
Without all the great posters -- that dig up and post most of the relevant day to day info -- (that sheds at least a little light on what is actually taking place in the Beetaloo) -- I would have given up on Falcon long ago (and for sanity sake probably should have -- LOL).
In the New Year -- I will be looking closely at selling a bunch of my Falcon shares and switching to Tamboran -- which would keep my investment still in the Beetaloo, but with a stock that is getting promoted every single day. The pricing spread and market cap between the two stocks keeps getting wider (15 cents for Falcon today on the TSX versus 20 Aussie cents for Tamboran), even with Falcon having much better cash management and a very strong JV opt in or opt out forward participation agreement. To my way of looking at the fundamentals of these two stocks -- the REVERSE should apply with Falcon going up and Tamboran (with twice as many shares outstanding ) going down!! Therefore, it must be all about promotion that is driving Tambo higher and will probably continue to be that way in the future as the Pilot program gets ramped up!! Good luck to everyone on this Board in the New Year.
I am not sure exactly what this Tamboran press release today indicates, but it appears that Tamboran is trying to raise closer to $82 million in Aussie dollars by offering existing retail shareholders the opportunity to buy more at 16 Aussie cents. If any of our more astute posters can decipher this press release -- and update this Board on how many $$ Tambo is trying to raise for their preliminary work on the Pilot production plan -- that would be appreciated??
21 December 2023
Dear Securityholder
Accelerated non-renounceable pro rata entitlement offer – Notification to eligible CDI securityholders.
On 14 December 2023, Tamboran Resources Corporation ARBN 672 879 024 (Company or
Tamboran) announced that it was conducting a non-underwritten accelerated non-renounceable pro
rata entitlement offer on a 1 for 6.2 basis to eligible securityholders to raise up to approximately
A$44.3 million (Entitlement Offer) and an institutional placement to raise approximately A$28.9
million (Placement, and together with the Entitlement Offer, the Equity Raising) in new fully paid
CHESS Depositary Interests in Tamboran (New CDIs) at a price of A$0.16 per New CDI.
The proceeds of the Equity Raising will be used to support the Company’s Beetaloo Basin activities to
the sanctioning of its proposed 40 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) Shenandoah South Pilot Project,
which is planned for H1 2024. This includes the purchase of long lead items to maintain project
timeline and Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) activities.
Many thanks for your post Hardrock,
You would think that after more than a dozen years -- that I would have a bit more patience by now -- LOL. (But every delay with Falcon has proven to be a good time to get nervous -- sheesh)
On a separate note -- I am trying to figure out how the spread between Tamboran's market cap and Falcon's has doubled in the past couple of weeks. Falcon's share price on the TSX is dropping from Friday high of 18.5 cents to now 16.5 cents, while at the same time Tamboran has moved well off it's lows of 14 Aussie cents to up to 19 cents today.
Tamboran now has almost 2.2 billion shares outstanding as compared to Falcon 's 1.1 billion (after Tamboran's latest $48 million Aussie dollar raise -- with much more dilution to come next Spring) -- yet Tamboran's share price keeps moving higher these past four days -- while Falcon is trading lower on the TSX. Last month -- when we were waiting for the fracking to be completed, and before Tamboran's latest dilution -- Tamboran's market cap was only about 20 - 25% higher than Falcon, but now with over 2.2 Billion shares outstanding for Tamboran -- the spread between market caps is double. What's with that??
Hopefully (there is that darn word again) we start to see that spread being reduced with FAlcon moving up and not Tamboran moving down??
Thanks for the Sentinel satellite shot 805slo.
Just wondering in Hardrock, or anyone else with completion knowledge, would know why there isn't any gas being flared 12 days after the frack was completed -- "IF" the ex-Pioneer completion team is getting any gas back to the surface -- with the frack fluids??
There are possibly two explanations that I can think of that could explain the lack of flaring 12 days after the frack job was completed by Condor -- (where the press releases from Tambo and Falcon indicated the frack job was a good one).
The first reason could be a delay in getting the Production Tubing installed -- as that was clearly indicated as the next step after fracking, and before we would most likely see any significant gas back to the surface for flaring?? This delay on the Production Tubing being installed could be two-fold. The distance to the SSH1 site from the supplier's location could take any number of travel days, and/or the road conditions for access to the SSH1 location could cause delays.
If you clik on the Sentinel satellite shot that 805slo just posted -- and then clik on the moisture index on the left side panel -- you will see that grounds at the SSH1 site, and all around that site, appear to be saturated. Unlike the Amungee site that has access right off the paved Carpentaria Hwy -- the Shenandoah site has around 20 km of muddy roads that could make access difficult?? The 7 day Daly Waters weather site that I check regularly -- has shown one or two rain storms each week for the past three weeks -- so that could explain why no flaring 12 days after the frack was completed??
The second reason for this delay is the one that has me the most worried -- and would be "par for the course" with our bird -- and that is that something has gone amiss with the frack job again. This could be any number or problems with the SSH1 either not clearing the frack fluids or a skin issue is keeping the gas locked in the Velkerri rock structure again??
Given the quality of the ex-Pioneer team overseeing the SSH1 completion process, and all the gas saturation indications from the H&P drilling process -- I honestly don't think this lack of flaring to date is anything to worry about just yet. However, if we don't see any flaring soon -- then we need to see some sort of an update from Tambo on why not, or alternately -- we might ask Hardrock if he has heard any indications on the ground -- providing it didn't violate any of confidences at all.
Hey Marshmill, I was hoping you had a stink bid in early last week on the TSX -- when someone put in a sell at market order for 1.2 million shares last Tuesday when Falcon was trading at 12.5 cents (just where I had purchased a few more the day before and could have bought way cheaper with a stink bid -- LOL). That sell at market order went in and the price got down to 7 cents, momentarily, before the full 1.2 million shares were sold, and whoever put in that market order will be kicking themselves today at 18 cents Cdn on the TSX currently.
The Hannam Report below is a good read and probably the most important aspect, and the one that surprised me the most, as Liberty stepping in to the tune of $15 million Aussie dollars BEFORE the flow results are going to be released in only one more month. This is so darn significant for all of us -- as Liberty has looked at all the DATA and is so confident on the Beetaloo going commercial -- that they aren't waiting even 30 days!! H&P's investment of a rig and money a year ago was big news, but this is truly amazing when Liberty only had to wait 30 days -- just to be sure -- and they didn't wait. Truly great news for all of us.
Part Two of the Hannam & Partners update:
On successful flow testing, TBN and the Beetaloo
Joint Venture expect to be in a position to sanction the proposed Pilot Development.
Valuation: 300% upside to our lowered risked NAV of A$0.64/sh
We have lowered our risked NAV to A$0.64/sh from A$0.71/sh as a result of the dilution
from the equity raise. Our risked NAV is based on a long-term Brent forecast of
US$70/bbl flat (implied L.T. Asian LNG price of US$10.5/mcf at 15% of Brent). On an
unrisked basis we have a NAV of A$4.11/sh or >25x upside for the development of 15tcf
net to TBN. TBN is looking to sanction the Pilot Development in early 2024, targeting
700bcf of net 2P gas reserves (which at a conservative Australian market 2P
acquisition multiple of ~A$1/mcf NPV this would be worth A$700mm) with first
production of 40mmcf/d targeted for end-2025, before it aims to add a further 5tcf of
net 2P reserves. TBN has redomiciled to the US to access a deeper pool of capital and
we expect a US IPO in 2024.
Tamboran Resources
Strategic partnership and capital raise with another oil
service company
Strategic Partnership with Liberty Energy
Tamboran Resources (“TBN”) announced a Strategic Partnership with Liberty Energy,
a leading North American energy services firm. Liberty has invested US$10mm
(A$15.3mm) into TBN via a placement. Liberty plans to import a modern frac fleet into
the Beetaloo Basin in 2024 to support the stimulation campaign with industry leading
operational and subsurface engineering expertise for TBN’s proposed 40 mmcf/d Pilot
Project. It plans to dedicate a frac fleet and crew to the Beetaloo to reduce delays in
mobilising equipment to site and increasing completion efficiencies while reducing
costs of future stimulation programs. This partnership follows on from a similar
arrangement with drilling contractor Helmrich and Payne, implying that TBN has
secured two key services required for a successful shale development with equity
alignment.
TBN applied for extractive mineral exploration licences to source sand
TBN has also applied for 14 extractive mineral exploration licences near the Pilot
Project. TBN will evaluate the potential extraction of frac sand for future stimulation
operations. Under the Strategic Partnership, TBN has agreed to work with Liberty to
bring the latest sand mining and handling management solution to the Beetaloo. This
is another example of forward thinking towards factory development of the Beetaloo
as frac sand will be a significant cost and there is a meaningful benefit to costs and
returns from sourcing cheaper and fit for purpose sand.
TBN has raised A$41mm from equity raise
TBN raised a total of A$40.8mm via an institutional placement and institutional
entitlement offer, including the funding from Liberty and a A$7.6mm pre-commitment
from the Company’s largest shareholder, Bryan Sheffield. The raise was completed at
A$0.16/sh (15.8% discount to the last closing price of on 13th December, and a 4.9%
premium to the 10-day VWAP). The raise supports TBN’s activities in the Beetaloo up
to a sanctioning decision for the proposed 40 mmcf/d Pilot Development, planned for
H1’24, including purchase of long lead items to maintain project timeline and FEED.
Flow test of SS1H well underway with IP30 results in early Q1’24
The main catalyst we see in the coming months is the flow test of the SS1H well with
an expectation of 30-day initial production (“IP30”) flow rate of >2.5mmcf/d (well
above the commerciality threshold) for the 500m section (normalised at >5mmcf/d
over 1,000m horizontal sections). TBN successfully stimulated 10 stages over 500m,
delivering proppant intensity of 2,212 pounds per foot and achieved rates of 100 bpm
using slickwater, a record rate for the Beetaloo Basin. IP30 flow rate results are on
track to be released in early Q1’24. On successful flow testing, TBN and the Beetaloo
Joint Venture expect to be in a position to sanction the pr
ITguy -- this full 254 page EMP might be more than one weekend's worth of reading -- LOL.
The link I posted at the bottom of my previous post doesn't work -- so everyone will have to use JamesL's link to get the NT EMP page and then go to the "Documents" heading on the right side to open up the 254 page 9 well EMP.
Thanks JamesL -- as the link came up fine.
On the right hand side of that link is another link (under "Documents") for the full Shenandoah EMP regarding the proposed Pilot -- 9 well development plan. If you want to take the time to see where some of the money has gone and where a whole bunch more will go -- take a read through that 254 page document -- yikes.
If you don't have that kind of time -- just take a look at the map on Page 3 to see where the proposed production wells will be situated -- which is much closer to the main north south highway from Tennant Creek to Darwin.
Along with all the related costs, (including seismic, gathering lines, processing plant, gravel and sand operations, waste water tanks and transport, plus the nine wells in this EMP) -- this is going to cost a few $100 million and require Brian to bring in some heavy weight $$ partners sometime in the next 18 - 24 months?? If the SSH1 comes in as expected, and now with Liberty and H&P joining the party to move this forward -- this is really looking like the start of the Beetaloo commercialization folks!!
https://ehq-production-australia.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/f9256a9a590713a771f1f8c4aa9dd7058e2a57c9/original/1702261645/360e211787154fabca50890cdc349763_Shenandoah_Sth_E_A_EMP_%28TAM1-1%29.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA4KKNQAKIOR7VAOP4%2F20231215%2Fap-southeast-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20231215T134445Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=12f03bb216fdad0817d7d59a8462726b4d17b10c9ce114ab42af80c876c7feb9
JamesL -- that sounds like a marvelous trip into the Mohave Desert, but with that kind of increase in Falcon while you were away -- I think I can speak for everyone here -- and say to you "go again soon" -- LOL.
805slo and NorthernMagic -- Falcon will need to do a funding raise by this spring -- if the SSH1 flows commercial in later January.
After paying Falcon's 22% share of the Amungee H3 that was drilled by H&P this Fall to the tune of $12++ million (with Tamboran paying 77% of that $12 million) -- along with Falcon paying 22% of the SSH1 fracking and completion costs -- I think Falcon will be down below $5 to $6 million in US funds currently. That won't be enough to cover Falcon's share of the Pilot production proposal in the SSH1 area.
Tamboran had to get out with a funding raise now -- as their cash reserves were almost completely spent after the Amungee H3 well drilling only expense, and the recent SSH1 completion expenses. By comparison, POQ has Falcon in a much better cash position and will wait for the SSH1 flow results before doing a funding raise most likely.
If the results are really good -- that raise might be done closer to 20 to 25 pence would be my guesstimate??
Some good news going into 2024 -- if the SSH1 flows come in as expected in January.
The link below should connect to Tamboran's just released news on raising another $28 million Aussie to help cover lead times for equipment and supplies that will be needed for the Piliot Production at the SSH1 location.
https://investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/08e4e2cb-0b1.pdf