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While we wait for a few more anxious days -- it would be interesting to hear what others think on the following??
If the flow rates are in the 3 mm cu.ft/day range or lower -- I think we will see serious selling to the downside -- with new lows established on all three exchanges that Falcon is currently trading on. If we get anything around 5 mm or possibly a bit higher -- then we should see a short term doubling of the current Falcon price for a few days. Shortly after that initial flurry higher -- my guess would be that day traders will bring the stock back down by 20 or 30% over the following couple of weeks before leveling off. Then, I think will see Falcon's share price slowly climb back up -- with both the widespread news that the Beetaloo is moving into Pilot Production, and some increased speculation on whether Falcon is now entertaining offers to sell all or part of it's 22.5%.
From my own personal perspective -- I will be more than happy if we see something like 4 mm cu.ft/day on flow rates. However, with that lower 4mm rate -- I would be hoping for some technical clarifications by POQ (during the Investor Meets) -- about why the Faron Thibadeaux team has determined that the flow rates aren't higher, and have a plan in place to be get higher flow rates on the last of the original Origin 9 well commitment.
Frackme, I am fairly sure that any shareholder can attend the AGM.
To be sure your name is on the list of attendees (when you arrive at Conrad hotel) -- you should send an email to Falcon letting them know that you would like to attend, asking for confirmation that you are on the list.
Sheesh -- punters are buying Falcon shares TODAY on the TSX for less than my average buy-in price over the past dozen years. With only about one or two weeks to go before we find out if this bird will actually fly -- I could have waited 12 long years and still have bought this darn stock cheaper -- LOL.
Hopefully -- my old adage about "you can always always buy Falcon cheaper" is finally going to be put to rest.............
The Encompass Funds and Managed Accounts have acquired an economic interest
in 114,962,537 fully paid ordinary shares in Tamboran Resources Limited ACN 135 299 062 (TBN)
(corresponding to approximately 8.12% of the total shares in TBN) -- (the average price for this private placement is 21 Aussie cents).
This substantial purchase by Encompass Capital is good news for Tamboran having the capital to complete the last well under the Origin purchase -- as this level of funding, combined with the sale of the three rigs at auction should give Tamboran some added leeway through the Fall into winter. I don't think that Encompass could have been given any flow rates before the rest of the market is updated -- so this purchase is a fairly good indication that Encompass has a pretty strong opinion that the gas will flow commercially??
Even more interesting news from Tamboran, on securing a large block of the Darwin Middle Arm for future LNG sales, which could have influenced the Encompass buy-in as well??
Highlights
• The Northern Territory Government has provided Tamboran exclusivity over 170-hectares (420-
acres) on the Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct (Middle Arm) for a proposed LNG
development, Northern Territory LNG (NTLNG). NTLNG is expected to be supported by low
reservoir CO2 gas from the Beetaloo Basin.
• The Middle Arm acreage has been allocated on a “Do Not Deal” basis for twelve-months, allowing
Tamboran to progress a Concept Select phase for a proposed NTLNG development.
• The site under exclusivity is expected to host a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) development with
an initial capacity of 6.6 million tonnes of LNG per annum (MTPA), with the potential for
expansion, subject to completion of the Concept Select study, successful Beetaloo appraisal
drilling and flow testing, and Government approvals.
• NTLNG represents the first fully integrated onshore LNG development in Northern Australia
where upstream, midstream and downstream production and processing are based in the
Northern Territory.
• Tamboran is targeting first LNG production by 2030, with a near-term commitment to ensure
Australia’s Northern Territory and East Coast gas markets are well supplied.
Thanks Hardrock.
It would be nice if the three Tamboran rigs on the auction block would bring in enough cash to offset the next one km horizontal, but even the sentiment over on the Hot Copper Tamboran Board is somewhat negative on the rig auction's cash raise. It will be interesting to see how Brian Sheffield plays this one -- as any lack of participation by him on the next round of financing by Tamboran could lead to an eventual takeover push by B.S. and big Texas money, but good flow results will help Riddle offset that risk??
Longknife -- Hardrock will most likely have a better answer for you on his statement "Regardless of that A2H results are, it doesn’t affect/reflect the Beetaloo potential" -- but I think he is referring to the increasing recognition that the Beetaloo is a major shale gas field that both the NT and the rest of Australia are counting on for large scale production.
We already know from the Santos Tanumbirini wells, and the recent Empire wells, that 3 mm cu. ft per day can be achieved without any real optimization of the drilling and fracking routines. The Amungee H2 is only the fifth or sixth horizontal into the Velkeri B shale and getting that quartz rock to give us the best flow rates possible may take more wells with better completion designs. Less than stellar flow rates of 5 mm per day -- will be disappointing, but I think what Hardrock is saying is that the Beetaloo is too darn important and too darn valuable to stop further testing.
Hardrock -- you might not have seen my small request from last week as it was at the bottom of a different reply.
I was just wondering if you have heard any rumours on whether things are progressing successfully at the Amungee H2 site -- without breaking any of your confidences of course???
Thanks for anything you can share w/o conflict.
Northern -- late next week might be possible, but just not sure if the full 30 days of flow will be completed by then.
It looked like they had a flare for a short period and then nothing (which could be been the nitrogen lift coming in??) and now the flare is back for only a couple of weeks so far.
Australia's gas pricing update on current and future trends from IBIS World energy markets as of May 2023.
"Recent Trends – Domestic Price of Natural Gas"
"IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of natural gas to spike by 31.7% in 2022-23, to 167.9 index points. This trend follows the rise reported in 2021-22, attributable to production outages on the east coast of Australia and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. Strong demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in export markets is expected to cause LNG export prices to rise sharply, placing upward pressure on domestic natural gas prices in the current year. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt global gas markets, with flow-on effects expected to buoy demand for LNG and considerably elevate domestic gas prices. Russia is among the world’s largest producers of natural gas, with the conflict and resulting commodity shortages encouraging European and Asian gas buyers to look for alternative gas supply sources. The Federal Government has shown a strong willingness to intervene in the domestic gas market. In March 2023, the government reformed the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) to incorporate additional authorities, including the ability to review Australia’s domestic energy needs quarterly and to curb LNG exports to satisfy local demand. Shortly before, the government signed new Heads of Agreement with east coast LNG exporters on 29 September 2022, whereby LNG exporters committed to offering uncontracted gas to the domestic market to mitigate the risk of a domestic gas supply deficit. However, these efforts are expected to intensify competition among export markets competition for Australian LNG cargoes".
Thanks Wet for questioning the frack engineer that helped design the recent one at Amungee H2. I would assume that the engineer you talked to would have been recently associated with either Pioneer or with Faron Thibiadeoux -- or you flew down to Daly Waters.
Speaking of going down to Daly Waters -- If Tamboran gets far enough to start completion work on the last of nine wells under the original Origin JV (which given Tamboran's current cash position and the possibly less than commercial flow rates coming up -- that is not guaranteed right now) -- we should all chip in and send you to Daly Waters. Maybe you and Hardrock could hang out at the Daly Waters pub long enough that the Amungee completion crew thinks you are just two local yokels and loosen their tongues about flow results. If we don't hear anything soon -- you should pack your bags just in case -- LOL
Fingers are crossed Northern and starting to seize up -- LOL.
Hardrock -- if you are hearing any rumours from the Amungee site -- please let us know what you might be able to share without violating any confidences?? Thanks.
Thanks ITguy for the Empire press release.
The following statements (below) by Alex Underwood seem to indicate that POQ's original comments that even the lower estimate of a 3000 cu.ft./day flow rate from the Amungee H2 well could be declared commercial. This lower level of production, when expanded to a full length 3 km horizontals, seems to be showing that each full length horizontal could cover the drilling costs and start to show a small profit in just under one year. This is mainly due to the much higher domestic price for nat gas in Aussieland, but forward projections don't seem to indicate that the price for nat gas will drop in Australia, and may even go higher along with the offshore LNG pricing.
"on this basis an equivalent 3km development well could generate over $10 million in gross revenue (before royalties) over an equivalent first 127 days of commercial production without any further well optimization"
"Following recent regulatory implementation by the NT Government giving the Beetaloo a ‘green light’ to move into commercial production, and an extremely tight domestic gas market, line of sight towards commercialisation is getting clearer by the day.”
Thanks Thij for the updated Sentinel satellite shot of the Amungee H2 flare.
Today's flare appears to be not only a larger in width than the previous Amungee H2 Sentinel shot, but may also be quite a bit larger overall than what today's satellite shot is actually showing.
If you "ZOOM IN" on today's satellite shot and compare today's Amungee flare with the one that dprussky posted on May 18th (see link below -- which shows an older satellite shot of Empire's flare from their 1 km horizontal) -- you may notice that the Amungee flare from today is much wider than is obvious from a first look??
Today's Amungee flare, when zooming in, appears to cover almost one third of the entire width of the Amungee 2 well pad. The much brighter flare shown below (from the earlier Empire satellite shot) appears to cover almost 40% of the width of the Empire well pad. While we don't know the exact dimensions of either the Amungee or the Empire well pads -- I believe the Amungee pad is wider from earlier pictures of that well pad. Therefore the overall size of today's Amungee flare may be much more significant that what a first glance shows?
Here is dprussky's earlier Empire satellite shot for size comparisons to today's Amungee flare. I am not sure why the Empire flare is so much brighter (atmospheric conditions or gas composition??) -- but the Amungee flare may now be as large or even larger if the Amungee well pad is much wider?
Https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-16.70073&lng=135.10145&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-03-29T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-03-29T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Thanks ITguy -- with the SA gov't finally starting to re-think the Karoo by putting up ten blocks in the Karoo for bidding -- it brings up a couple of questions.
I have to wonder if Falcon's original permit area of 7 million acres in the most prospective part of the Karoo even exists anymore or whether these ten new blocks the gov't is opening overlap Falcon's original exploration license or do they wipe out Falcon's original south Karoo license??
If Falcon's holdings still exist -- has the useless past few SA gov't's finally pasted the legislation that has been stuck in limbo for seven years -- or is this another one of their useless games where nothing ever happens???
If the useless legislators in SA have finally passed the required legislation that would allow fracking and exploration to start in the Karoo -- have they kept the ridiculous part in the wording where the gov't can nationalize/steal any successful gas development for virtually no compensation??
Wow dprussky -- that is a huge difference between the Amungee flare and the Empire flare. Maybe the Amungee flare really is just a BBQ as was speculated before -- LOL.
At a minimum -- the Amungee site is getting gas back to the surface and maybe we will see something like the Empire flare soon, but there is no question that the Empire 3 mm cu.ft/day flare shows as much larger. Just wondering if atmospheric conditions can cause one flare to show up much larger than another flare due to something like the higher moisture levels that were in the air when the Empire satellite shot was taken a while back during the rainy season??
Thanks Otd2000 from me as well -- as seeing this larger flare back at the Amungee site is huge relief.
Who knows exactly what the suspension of flow back was all about (possibly the nitrogen lift that Hardrock mentioned) but really a nice Sentinel satellite shot to savour before our long weekend here in Canada.
There was some news last week that indicated the H&P Flex rig should be on site, but the Sentinel shot is just a bit too blurry to tell if that big rig is laying down somewhere at the Amungee H2 site. Can anyone else spot that rig on the Sentinel satellite link??
Hardrock -- it is crazy that Riddle needs those rigs to sell to give him some financial breathing room, but a successful auction of those three rigs would be good news ahead of any update on where the next 1 km horizontal will be drilled using H&P rig. The successful auctioning of those rigs won't be enough to stop another funding raise (and further dilution for Tamboran holders), but it could certainly help keep that next raise to a much smaller percentage.
If we see a truly commercial level of flow rates announced in a few weeks' time -- that should help to secure Sheffield's participation in the next round of Tamboran funding and have me buying more expensive scotch -- LOL.
Hardrock wrote: " Kyalla - a lot, the wrong kind, and not long enough"
Since we appear to be waiting a few more weeks to get any clarity on what the heck is happening at the Amungee H2 site, your post on nitrogen lift at Kyalla site brings to mind a couple of questions that you might have some insight on??
All of the longer-term holders of Falcon were pumped about the Lower Kyalla horizontal well and the promises of much higher liquids content that were indicated there. I am wondering if you have looked at the geology for the Lower Kyalla and have any comments about whether that zone can be made to work properly??
I have always been a more than a little concerned about the Lower Kyalla's lack of a brittle quartz type of rock structure like we have in the Velkerri shale zones and whether the higher mica content in the Kyalla might make the fracturing process quite a bit more dubious. Since the Lower Kyalla with it's much higher calorific values is almost entirely inside Falcon's permits -- it would be game changer if it can be made to flow??
Darnit --- I am assuming that now that you don't own any Falcon shares -- you are just having "a go at the rest of us" as the Aussies would say -- by posting this drivel from Chat GBT. This Chat crap makes absolutely no sense -- especially where it says:
"the Pinedale Anticline field experienced a decrease in gas production after undergoing hydraulic fracturing, which is a form of soaking" or this ridiculous statement "water blocking effect was particularly pronounced in the wells that had been hydraulically fractured multiple times".
What a load of crap that the hydraulic fracturing caused a decrease in gas production -- as in ANY SHALE gas field in the Beetaloo you won't get ANY "production" at all without doing hydraulic fracturing. And this nonsense about "wells being hydraulically fractured multiple times" -- makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for Falcon or the Beetaloo.
Darnit -- Either buy some shares again and post stuff that makes at least a little bit of sense, or just forget about Falcon and this Board and move on to your other non-investments please.
805 -- Hardrock might be able to give us a better answer, but in my earlier post from 00:36 am today -- I mentioned that Mr. Riddle and his Pioneer team might be trying every trick they can to get to the commercial 5mm flow rate. That could easily include what Empire has done fairly successfully with shutting in the well to build pressure and get a higher and more reliable flow rate (I think that is why it is shut in??). Our bigger problem if the Amungee H2 has been shut in -- would be the possibility that an additional month or so may then be required before we would get a flow rate announcement?
VillaMaria -- a good thought but the quick answer is "no" about gas going into the MacArthur pipeline just yet.
The NT has only just announced that production will be allowed this past week, so no real production has been allowed as yet. More importantly -- the Velkerri B shale gas will have to be "processed" in a fairly expensive processing plant before it can be sold or moved into the MacArthur or any other pipeline.
Definition: A natural gas processing plant is a facility designed to “clean” raw natural gas by separating impurities and various non-methane hydrocarbons and fluids to produce what is known as 'pipeline quality' dry natural gas.