The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Fingers are crossed Northern and starting to seize up -- LOL.
Hardrock -- if you are hearing any rumours from the Amungee site -- please let us know what you might be able to share without violating any confidences?? Thanks.
Thanks ITguy for the Empire press release.
The following statements (below) by Alex Underwood seem to indicate that POQ's original comments that even the lower estimate of a 3000 cu.ft./day flow rate from the Amungee H2 well could be declared commercial. This lower level of production, when expanded to a full length 3 km horizontals, seems to be showing that each full length horizontal could cover the drilling costs and start to show a small profit in just under one year. This is mainly due to the much higher domestic price for nat gas in Aussieland, but forward projections don't seem to indicate that the price for nat gas will drop in Australia, and may even go higher along with the offshore LNG pricing.
"on this basis an equivalent 3km development well could generate over $10 million in gross revenue (before royalties) over an equivalent first 127 days of commercial production without any further well optimization"
"Following recent regulatory implementation by the NT Government giving the Beetaloo a ‘green light’ to move into commercial production, and an extremely tight domestic gas market, line of sight towards commercialisation is getting clearer by the day.”
Thanks Thij for the updated Sentinel satellite shot of the Amungee H2 flare.
Today's flare appears to be not only a larger in width than the previous Amungee H2 Sentinel shot, but may also be quite a bit larger overall than what today's satellite shot is actually showing.
If you "ZOOM IN" on today's satellite shot and compare today's Amungee flare with the one that dprussky posted on May 18th (see link below -- which shows an older satellite shot of Empire's flare from their 1 km horizontal) -- you may notice that the Amungee flare from today is much wider than is obvious from a first look??
Today's Amungee flare, when zooming in, appears to cover almost one third of the entire width of the Amungee 2 well pad. The much brighter flare shown below (from the earlier Empire satellite shot) appears to cover almost 40% of the width of the Empire well pad. While we don't know the exact dimensions of either the Amungee or the Empire well pads -- I believe the Amungee pad is wider from earlier pictures of that well pad. Therefore the overall size of today's Amungee flare may be much more significant that what a first glance shows?
Here is dprussky's earlier Empire satellite shot for size comparisons to today's Amungee flare. I am not sure why the Empire flare is so much brighter (atmospheric conditions or gas composition??) -- but the Amungee flare may now be as large or even larger if the Amungee well pad is much wider?
Https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-16.70073&lng=135.10145&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-03-29T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-03-29T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Thanks ITguy -- with the SA gov't finally starting to re-think the Karoo by putting up ten blocks in the Karoo for bidding -- it brings up a couple of questions.
I have to wonder if Falcon's original permit area of 7 million acres in the most prospective part of the Karoo even exists anymore or whether these ten new blocks the gov't is opening overlap Falcon's original exploration license or do they wipe out Falcon's original south Karoo license??
If Falcon's holdings still exist -- has the useless past few SA gov't's finally pasted the legislation that has been stuck in limbo for seven years -- or is this another one of their useless games where nothing ever happens???
If the useless legislators in SA have finally passed the required legislation that would allow fracking and exploration to start in the Karoo -- have they kept the ridiculous part in the wording where the gov't can nationalize/steal any successful gas development for virtually no compensation??
Wow dprussky -- that is a huge difference between the Amungee flare and the Empire flare. Maybe the Amungee flare really is just a BBQ as was speculated before -- LOL.
At a minimum -- the Amungee site is getting gas back to the surface and maybe we will see something like the Empire flare soon, but there is no question that the Empire 3 mm cu.ft/day flare shows as much larger. Just wondering if atmospheric conditions can cause one flare to show up much larger than another flare due to something like the higher moisture levels that were in the air when the Empire satellite shot was taken a while back during the rainy season??
Thanks Otd2000 from me as well -- as seeing this larger flare back at the Amungee site is huge relief.
Who knows exactly what the suspension of flow back was all about (possibly the nitrogen lift that Hardrock mentioned) but really a nice Sentinel satellite shot to savour before our long weekend here in Canada.
There was some news last week that indicated the H&P Flex rig should be on site, but the Sentinel shot is just a bit too blurry to tell if that big rig is laying down somewhere at the Amungee H2 site. Can anyone else spot that rig on the Sentinel satellite link??
Hardrock -- it is crazy that Riddle needs those rigs to sell to give him some financial breathing room, but a successful auction of those three rigs would be good news ahead of any update on where the next 1 km horizontal will be drilled using H&P rig. The successful auctioning of those rigs won't be enough to stop another funding raise (and further dilution for Tamboran holders), but it could certainly help keep that next raise to a much smaller percentage.
If we see a truly commercial level of flow rates announced in a few weeks' time -- that should help to secure Sheffield's participation in the next round of Tamboran funding and have me buying more expensive scotch -- LOL.
Hardrock wrote: " Kyalla - a lot, the wrong kind, and not long enough"
Since we appear to be waiting a few more weeks to get any clarity on what the heck is happening at the Amungee H2 site, your post on nitrogen lift at Kyalla site brings to mind a couple of questions that you might have some insight on??
All of the longer-term holders of Falcon were pumped about the Lower Kyalla horizontal well and the promises of much higher liquids content that were indicated there. I am wondering if you have looked at the geology for the Lower Kyalla and have any comments about whether that zone can be made to work properly??
I have always been a more than a little concerned about the Lower Kyalla's lack of a brittle quartz type of rock structure like we have in the Velkerri shale zones and whether the higher mica content in the Kyalla might make the fracturing process quite a bit more dubious. Since the Lower Kyalla with it's much higher calorific values is almost entirely inside Falcon's permits -- it would be game changer if it can be made to flow??
Darnit --- I am assuming that now that you don't own any Falcon shares -- you are just having "a go at the rest of us" as the Aussies would say -- by posting this drivel from Chat GBT. This Chat crap makes absolutely no sense -- especially where it says:
"the Pinedale Anticline field experienced a decrease in gas production after undergoing hydraulic fracturing, which is a form of soaking" or this ridiculous statement "water blocking effect was particularly pronounced in the wells that had been hydraulically fractured multiple times".
What a load of crap that the hydraulic fracturing caused a decrease in gas production -- as in ANY SHALE gas field in the Beetaloo you won't get ANY "production" at all without doing hydraulic fracturing. And this nonsense about "wells being hydraulically fractured multiple times" -- makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for Falcon or the Beetaloo.
Darnit -- Either buy some shares again and post stuff that makes at least a little bit of sense, or just forget about Falcon and this Board and move on to your other non-investments please.
805 -- Hardrock might be able to give us a better answer, but in my earlier post from 00:36 am today -- I mentioned that Mr. Riddle and his Pioneer team might be trying every trick they can to get to the commercial 5mm flow rate. That could easily include what Empire has done fairly successfully with shutting in the well to build pressure and get a higher and more reliable flow rate (I think that is why it is shut in??). Our bigger problem if the Amungee H2 has been shut in -- would be the possibility that an additional month or so may then be required before we would get a flow rate announcement?
VillaMaria -- a good thought but the quick answer is "no" about gas going into the MacArthur pipeline just yet.
The NT has only just announced that production will be allowed this past week, so no real production has been allowed as yet. More importantly -- the Velkerri B shale gas will have to be "processed" in a fairly expensive processing plant before it can be sold or moved into the MacArthur or any other pipeline.
Definition: A natural gas processing plant is a facility designed to “clean” raw natural gas by separating impurities and various non-methane hydrocarbons and fluids to produce what is known as 'pipeline quality' dry natural gas.
Waiting for any kind of positive news is probably still a couple of weeks away, but even a hint that gas is flowing would make the waiting a little less anxious. Even someone lighting a fart at the Amungee site would be welcome news -- LOL.
I am fairly sure the Mr. Riddle is keeping the lid on even the slightest bit of news leaking from the Amungee H2 drill site until such a time as he can announce commercial flows are proven over a 30 plus day flow. Tamboran has burned through so much cash since last Fall that they don't have enough cash left to meet their recent Origin deal that requires Tamboran to complete the very last well under the original Origin 9 well Joint Venture.
Tamboran will have to go back to the market and do another funding raise -- which will dilute the existing shareholders again -- bringing the total number of shares outstanding well past the current 1.4 billion shares. Therefore, i think that Mr. Riddle is pushing the Pioneer completion team to use every single trick they can to make sure the flow rate is at his minimum touted rate of 5 mm cu/ft per day.
Mr. Riddle badly needs to release great news to the market in a few weeks' time -- so that next funding raise is at a much higher price than the 20 cents Aussie that Tamboran is trading at currently. If the flow rates aren't up to snuff -- then the next funding raise will require a much larger dilution to all existing shareholders and that brings up a very big question about what will Brian Sheffield do??
Will Brian Sheffield step in and participate on the next round of funding or will he play hardball and require a much larger piece of the Beetaloo in return for his continued support?? Something to contemplate while we wait for a few more weeks!!
On a technical issue -- I can no longer get onto our Falcon Chat Board using Google Chrome as my main web browser. For the past week -- all I was getting was "Bad Request" on every attempt to log on the LSE Falcon chat board. I now have Microsoft Bing added as new web browser -- and that seems to work just fine.
JS490 -- even though Falcon was down on the news (which seems to be a pattern with this stock) -- this news is as you said was "very good news" indeed. This was the last major hurdle that has been overhanging any final Pilot Production plans -- as without this final NT approval -- no commercial gas sales were going to happen.
There was a great deal more opposition to this NT approval than just the Green idiots (who would rather see China, Indonesia and India keep building coal fired plants for ten times the CO2 than have one molecule come out of the Beetaloo to help stop more coal fired plants in Asia). Many of very rich and influential pastoralists, alone with a number of indigenous bands were against this approval, but common sense and the lengthy Justice Pepper report has helped eliminate this second last obstacle to commercial gas sales. The first obstacle still has to be overcome -- which is commercial gas flows from the Amungee H2 well, but that appears to be getting a bit closer with the recent flare shot from Derrick.
We are extremely fortunate that the Beetaloo is in a very remote, sp****ly populated area, and the NT with only 250,000 total population that badly needs the added royalties and job prospects that the Beetaloo represents -- so this final approval (by a Labour Gov't no less) is worth an extra ounce or two of scotch -- cheers everyone!!
Thanks for the post on production tubing Hardrock, but a just a quick question on why two different handles now on the LSE Board?? You were posting under Hardrock_Fracker, but now your handle shows no caps and no underscore with just --hardrockfracker -- so did you change this for easier typing or is there two different people posting??
Agreed Longknife -- as I am really hoping this lack of a decent flare and dearth of news from the Amungee site is just the Tamboran/Pioneer team working hard on the production tubing to clear this well and get the flows they were anticipating?? If we come in under 3mm -- your estimate on 5 cents might be too high -- as we will have at least 100 million shares trying to get out -- (and that is just from the holders on this Board -- LOL).
With the TSX down almost 15% -- the discrepancy with the LSE price is coming back into alignment. Some of the day traders and nervous holders are taking very small profits on the recent run-up on the TSX -- which was maybe too soon given we have absolutely no idea what the fuxx is going on at the Amungee site??
I am starting to get very nervous about whether Tamboran's estimates on this Amungee H2 well are going to be even close to that 5 mm cu.ft. per day now. As Hardrock said in his post this morning "the jury is still out" and with the flaring that is going on now being "hardly visible on the swir filter" -- you have to wonder if this is another Beetaloo fiasco in the making.
The good news is -- Falcon has one more kick at the can if this well doesn't perform, as Tamboran won't quit at this point with the H&P rig now in Darwin, but poor results on this Amungee H2 would be very very hard to overcome!!!
Current TSX price is 21 cents Cdn. on 330,000 shares trading hands.
I think we are starting to see a bit more FOMO (fear of missing out) come into play?? Generally, in the past we would see a small pull back after a nice run late last week, but it appears than more punters are realizing that if this current Amungee well performs as expected -- then the difference between 16 cents or 21 cents is pretty minor in the longer run-up potential for Falcon's stock.
Tamboran is not getting much of this recent stock price movement, but that might just be a result of their recent financial update that shows something in the neighborhood of $30 million in cash reserves. This cash reserve level doesn't appear to be enough to cover their next and last Origin obligated well -- whereas Falcon has $16 million in the bank and no obligations to contribute until we get to the Pilot production phase of the program.
Scargs --- I am sure WetWater can give us a bit more detail on the fantastic well he was describing, but it is not in the Beetaloo, but rather is a separate investment that WW has. I would think it is somewhere in the Permian or Barnett Basins, but that is just a guess. WW -- I would be interested to know if those huge volumes you describe are from a shale well or a conventional well??
Origin789 -- I am fairly sure that Falconman is correct about Wealth Masters, as the Rob McCaulay you referenced was a Bruner employee and has been gone ever since POQ and John Craven came on board a dozen years ago. In 2010 -- at the AGM in Vancouver, Bruner was allowed to resign, but in effect he was kicked out by Burlingame's CEO and Viktor. This was when Bruner was about to sell off almost 40% of Falcon to some Chinese investors for pennies -- in order to keep up his extravagant lifestyle, but Burlingame and Viktor had reached their breaking point with Bruners constant dilutions.
Marsh -- you are exactly correct as no news for four long weeks will see some downside push coming from some of the weaker hands for sure. However, four weeks is a pretty short time to wait -- especially in comparison to the years we have waited so far -- LOL.
I wouldn't be too surprised to see most of these recent gains holding much better than it has in the past -- due to the fact there will most likely be more buyers than sellers over the next four weeks, as Falcon's market cap of $200 million is still pretty low compared to the $400 million spent on Falcon permits to day. Plus, if there is any leaks on flow rates before the four weeks are up -- we will see millions of shares trading hands -- pushing the share price much closer to our old post moratorium high of 40 cents Cdn.
ITguy --- I just went back to look at Hardrock's Sentinel post from early last week (with virtually nothing visible by way of a real flare) and compared it to Derrick's Sentinel shot from today. I just wanted to be sure that I am looking at the right spot on Derrick's Sentinel shot?? There is a slightly more visible and slightly more pronounced Orangish blob in the bottom left corner -- that appears to be larger than anything else to date -- so is that orangish blob the flaring???
This assessment on the Empire Board by SmallFish -- is in reply to another poster that was asking for his views on Empire versus the rest of the Beetaloo. I haven't been following Empire too closely, but his comments reflect a good part of my take on some of the issues that Empire might be facing.
1. "On a per well spacing unit EEG land is less than half the depth of a normally prospective shale well. A reasonable and still optimistic view of EEG wells are that at best they will produce half of what an EP136 well would. Perhaps 65% of what an Amungee well will. Yes they're cheaper, but production is the long lever on the economics.
2. How do you plan on getting the gas out? Those bases appear covered by TBN.
3. The scale of the asset limits the development valuation. Only a sliver, at most 80,000 acres appears prospective and is bisected by a major fault that will eat capital faster than the cookie monster eats cookies.
4. Spatially the lands contain less than 5% of the area and, at that it contains half the gas on a per unit area that the rest of the basin does. Sorry, but you asked".