The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
dprussky -- I really hope you are right, but the Labour Party and the Greens have a very narrow majority in the Senate -- so not sure if that political balance would block the legislation??
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/australia-s-left-narrowly-wins-balance-of-power-in-new-senate#xj4y7vzkg
I think that stellar flow rates are still our best chance for sanity to find it's way back into the Labour Party in Canberra, as the Labour Party in the NT is fully supportive of ONLY scope 1 and scope 2 emission controls for the Beetaloo.
Hoping you can get a clear Sentinel shot with some flaring in the next few days. Thanks in advance!!!
Here is a link below to one the better overviews on how this current Federal gov't is trying to kill the Beetaloo with some good comments by opposition leaders and the Japanese Ambassador calling for changes??
"State and territory energy ministers have been tasked with trying to hammer out who should pay for offsetting or capturing carbon emissions from the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo gas project under this week’s Labor-Greens heavy emission reduction deal.
"In what appears to be a first for a potential mega project, the deal means Beetaloo’s so-called scope 3 emissions – which are those of its downstream customers – would need to be accounted for to ensure the project is net zero from day one".
“These laws will most likely scuttle crucial gas projects, worsening the gas crisis, severely hampering our ability to balance the budget and denying people good-paying jobs in regional Australia,” opposition resources spokeswoman Susan McDonald said".
"Japanese ambassador Shingo Yamagami said Japanese businesses were playing close attention to state and federal policies targeting fossil fuel projects".
"Japanese businesses are paying attention to the possible impact that these developments could have on the investment environment in Australia as well as the reliability of resource and energy supply from Australia to Japan,” the ambassador said".
“When I say Japanese businesses, I am not talking about just those operating here. I am told that the boardrooms of the headquarters in Japan are increasingly paying attention to the situation in Australia".
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/in-world-first-beetaloo-carbon-emissions-land-on-states-consumers-20230328-p5cw06
Hardrock, if you get a chance (with clear skies) in the next day or two -- would you pull up a Sentinel satellite shot to see if the Amungee H2 is even flaring as yet?? Riddle said that the frack fluid was clearing out of the well bore, so realistically there should be at least a little gas that has to be flared off at this point -- correct?? Thanks in advance, newt
Here is this year's update on the Carbon pricing for Canada and how Canada is handling Scope 3 emissions by increasing the cost of those Carbon offsets on both gas at the pumps and Carbon specific taxes for home and industrial natural gas users. The producers (called heavy emitters here) of natural gas in Canada will see a small increase in their Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions -- which in Canada are called "output-based pricing systems".
Canada's national carbon price saw its largest hike yet today when it jumped from $50 per tonne of emissions to $65. But the rebates for many of the lesser income households receive to compensate them for the surcharge are also set to rise.
Usually, the national price increases annually by $10. This year, under the federal government's strengthened climate plan, it's rising by $15.
Because carbon pricing differs from province to province and territory to territory, not everyone will feel the impact of this increase the same way.
In places where the federal carbon pricing system applies, Canadians will see an increase to the fuel charge — what's known as the carbon tax — while heavy emitters will see increases through their output-based pricing systems.
This month's increase will add an extra three cents per litre at the pump for Canadians who live in Ontario and all of the Prairie provinces, says the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
Longknife -- there has to be either additional measures -- like what the Inpex Chairman referenced in his speech to the Aussie Parliament -- which is the Aussie gov't getting on board with either end users paying for Scope 3 legislation (like we have here in Canada and elsewhere), and/or Gov't financial support (which they promised and then backtracked on) for a Carbon Capture plant that was proposed for the Darwin Port.
Inpex, Total, and Santos were proposing to build a Carbon Capture and sequestration plant for the Darwin port area, and were asking for Federal subsidies similar to what is happening in the US under Biden's new Infrastructure Bill -- where the oil and gas companies are getting around $85 per tonne for CO2 that is sequestered deep underground. The problem for us with the CCS type of solution is the time frame is at least a few years out before that kind of plant could be operational. I am really hoping for some brains to be found in Canberra where they do like the rest of the world and put the Scope 3 emission reductions onto the end user (where they belong as that encourages end users to modify or switch to renewables). This would allow Tamboran to do what they have always been preparing for -- which is to cover the Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions -- as that is all they should ever be responsible for.
I have all fingers and toes crossed right now for a minimum flow rate of 5 mm or even greater from the Amungee H2. Ideally -- if we see a minimum 5 mm of commercial flow rates from the Amungee H2 -- that should significantly help the NT Labour Party and the NT Resources Minister to accelerate their current lobbying on their counterpart Federal Labour Party in Canberra to wake up and change the legislation to something intelligent. The NT Labour Party knows clearly that the if the existing legislation isn't modified or the CCS proposed plant in Darwin is not subsidized like in the US -- the Beetaloo gas is stranded. The NT gov't is totally against this current legislation as it stands -- as they know that for the small 1/4 million population in the NT -- the Beetaloo is critically important for jobs and royalties if these upcoming flows are commercial.
Falconman -- I sincerely hope you are right that this new legislation is a tempest in a tea cup!!!
When reading through the head of Inpex's speech to the Canberra parliament -- he is very clear that those jackasses have to make some changes or further investment in producing gas for LNG or even domestic consumption is at risk.
Ueda-san's speech even kills the idea of just sending Beetaloo gas to Darwin for LNG -- as all new gas fields tied to existing LNG facilities will have to be NET ZERO on day one. Net zero means Scope 1 , Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions have to be offset before one molecule of Beetaloo gas gets shipped. Scope 3 in this situation means that the carbon emitted when an end user in Japan turns on a gas stove will have to offset in Australia before it can be sold offshore!!
Here are just two clips for his speech -- that hopefully the Canberra jackasses start to grasp on just how easy it is for political hacks to fuxx up a good thing -- by cutting off their noses just to spite their face -- sheesh!!!
Ueda-san's comments: "I note the Safeguard Mechanism reforms will require all new gas fields tied to existing LNG facilities to be net zero on day one".
"Minister King also said the Australian Government welcomes foreign
investment in the resources and energy sectors, especially from LNG
customers".
"These statements give us hope that Australia will remain an attractive
investment destination".
"It is now time to find the political courage to convert these words into
deeds"
This last statement by Inpex's head is the most critical part of his speech.
Longknife -- while this current legislation is a screw up -- it is highly doubtful that the Scope 3 emission question won't get cleared up with some sort of amendments. There will be pressure on the governing Federal Labour Party from all sides of the gas producing industry that represents 10's of 1000's of high paying jobs and huge royalty revenues. There will also be pressure on the Feds from industrial gas users, international LNG buyers, home users on the East Coast (that currently pay exorbitant prices for nat gas that will go much higher without changes to the legislation), and from the NT government that has already said clearly -- that if the East Coast wants Beetaloo gas in future -- this Scope 3 has to be resolved by Federal initiatives.
dprussky -- I just checked the forecast for Daly Waters and it shows clear sky's for the next three days. If you get a chance on Sunday -- would you pull up a Sentinel shot for us to see if flaring is underway?? Riddle said in one of his clips yesterday that the fracking fluid is currently being cleaned up in the Amungee H2 -- so there has to be some gas coming through with that fluid that needs to be flared off. Really hoping that the gas is significant enough that flaring is needed by Sunday?? Thanks in advance.
Longknife -- the Pepper report called for all emissions to be offset including Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions -- with the Scope 3 emissions being the highest as that is when the end user burns the Beetaloo gas generating the highest emission totals.
Dr. Pepper, who was wise enough to realize that no gas would ever make it to market in the producers had to offset the Scope 3 emissions, called for the Aussie Federal Gov't to initiate new regulations (somewhat like we have in Canada with our Carbon taxes levied against each gas user at the Scope 3 level) that would either penalize the end user or give them incentives to find eco friendly alternatives to burning gas. There were a number of other suggestions in this area by Dr. Pepper, but she was pretty clear that the Scope 3 issue must be handled at the Federal Level.
(The Pepper Inquiry recommendation specifies that one way to fulfill Recommendation 9.8 is for the Federal Government to "strengthen existing policies and/or the introduction of new policies and initiatives).
Our current problem is the Green Party is crowing and cheering about the new legislation that was just passed on Monday that the Green Party leader says would require the producers to offset all Scope 1. 2, and 3 emissions -- which is both a deal killer and not even close to what Dr. Pepper was requiring under her Recommendation 9.8 at all. This is where the idiots in the Labour gov't in Canberra need to come out with clear and concise directions on how Scope 3 emissions will be handled by the end user and not by the producers.
This may be some indication of why the Fed's in Canberra need to clarify the Scope 3 crap??
https://www.google.com/search?q=tamboran+resources+share+price&rlz=1C1CHZN_enCA931CA931&oq=&aqs=chrome.0.35i39i362l5j69i59i450l2j0i66i143i362.1212528864j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Thanks Thij -- as your link below with Riddle's comments on the recent legislation are what the politicians in both Darwin and Canberra need to clarify and hopefully soon.
Riddle clearly outlines that the Beetaloo gas will be Scope 1 and Scope 2 totally covered for any emissions and he details clearly that the Scope 3 emissions can be covered by the Federal gov't putting in Carbon Offsets (Riddle mentions a half dozen ways to do this in Thij's link below). This legislation needs to updated with something similar to what is done here in Canada with the end user being financially encouraged (or penalized in my case -- LOL) to reduce their carbon footprint, and the producers only being responsible for what they are actually creating when the gas flows under Scope 1. and Scope 2.
Riddle's comments on how to get to Scope 3:
Recommendation 9.8 of the Pepper Inquiry
The Pepper Inquiry recommendation specifies that one way to fulfill Recommendation 9.8 is for the Federal Government to "strengthen existing policies and/or the introduction of new policies and initiatives to meet Australia's international obligations."
Thanks kmjliveson -- as your post and thoughts on how everyone from Tamboran, Empire and even Origin on down has known about scope 3 since the Pepper Inquiry is accurate and worth a second reading.
Our problem now is the Green's are trying to force scope 3 onto the producing companies -- which is where Bandt is clearly correct -- in that it will kill the Beetaloo long before we get to production. Scope 3 -- is where the end users burn the gas (which is the majority of carbon emissions) and that is where the rest of the world puts the onus onto the end user to either not use gas or pay a Carbon Tax. This is what we do here in Canada -- and where I swear every month when I see the $35 plus added carbon tax on my gas bill for heating -- LOL.
If the various gov't's in LALA land don't come out and clearly state that companies like Tamboran will have to offset scope 1 and scope 2, but that scope 3 is now up to the end user to either switch to renewables or pay a Carbon Tax -- then the Beetaloo is going to get very few investors no matter how many millions of cu.ft. we get from the Amungee H2 two (which doesn't even have flaring yet??).
The Northern Territory needs the Beetaloo gas, tax revenue and jobs -- so the Labour Party's Resources Minister for the NT must hammer their respective Labour Party in Canberra and get an absolute and clear statement that the whole idea of Scope 3 carbon taxes is solely the responsibility of the end user. This is how the rest of the world is dealing with Scope 3 -- to effectively help nudge the end users to either switch to renewables or pay the Carbon tax, and where the rest of the world uses those added Carbon taxes to tackle emissions across all sectors to reach their climate action goals.
Alternatively --- if the idiots in Canberra can't find their rear ends (because they are looking at them from the inside) -- then the NT must come out with a clearer statement that the Beetaloo gas will be used for LNG trains with scope 1 and scope 2 being offset by the producers and scope 3 being the entire responsibility of the foreign buyers to deal with.
Villamaria --- I think the exporting of gas, particularly to the higher coal use asian countries, is the best option. Tell the rest of Australia to go green and freeze -- while the Beetaloo gas goes offshore without any scope 3 requirements -- except for whatever the receiving countries decide to put in place.
With two new coal fired plants being built every two weeks in China -- (plus many more every year in India and Indonesia) -- you would think that the Green Party would be pushing the Beetaloo forward under strict conditions that Beetaloo gas is going primarily to offset new coal fired plants.
For all the Green's never ending crap about stopping the Beetaloo -- none of their actions are going to change even a little bit of global warming without a switch away from coal fired plants. Stopping the Beetaloo won't make climate change in Australia even a tiny bit better, but sending the Beetaloo gas to these three countries to stop new coal fired plants would do more than all the crap the Greens have ever done!!!
https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/china-permits-two-new-coal-power-plants-per-week-in-2022/#:~:text=Of%20the%20projects%20permitted%20in,from%2040%20GW%20in%202021.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-may-need-up-28-gw-new-coal-fired-plants-advisory-body-2022-09-12/
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/05/1152823939/despite-billions-to-get-off-coal-why-is-indonesia-still-building-new-coal-plants
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-01/nt-govt-denies-beetaloo-gas-plan-in-doubt-without-emissions-help/102035508
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-16/nt-csiro-under-fire-for-beetaloo-basin-offsets-report/101979988
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/greens-changes-to-safeguard-won-t-stop-us-beetaloo-developers-say-20230327-p5cvlb
Pepper Inquiry notes on Stage 1, 2, and 3:
Thirty-five of those Pepper Inquiry recommendations are still yet to be implemented, including "9.8", which states that there be "no net increase in Australia's life cycle emissions from fracked gas produced in the territory".
Life cycle emissions include scope one, two and three.
Scope two emissions are indirect emissions from power generated to run a company's activities, while scope three result from the use of gas after it is sold.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/have-safeguard-changes-put-the-beetaloo-basin-in-doubt/102144186
It is highly doubtful that the Greens will ever be able to push this weak kneed useless Labour gov't in Canberra to levy stage three against the gas producers. If they end up pushing stage 3 onto the gas companies -- the logistics and costs of offsetting the end users carbon footprint onto the gas companies would bankrupt companies like Tamboran and Santos (and effectively push gas prices on the East Coast so high that industry and consumers will get kicked back into the stone age).
In the interim -- the Beetaloo gas at only 4% carbon concentrations, which is some of the lowest carbon levels for any gas field in the world (most likely due to the origin of our Beetaloo gas being from billion year old green slime instead of from ancient forests which captured more carbon from the atmosphere) will be able to offset that 4% carbon quite a bit less expensively than most of the newer field gas producers.
This caving in to the Greens (by the useless political hacks in Canberra) will most likely hurt all of us financially. The Beetaloo gas will become less profitable to sell due to the added regulations and the increased level of carbon capture and carbon offsets that will be added to all the higher cost Pepper Inquiry regulations.
However, our biggest hit financially will most likely come from the increase in uncertainty about whether the Beetaloo gas will "NOW" ever get to market -- which will severely impact the upside from any excitement about the upcoming commercial flow rates as more nervous investors decide to risk their money elsewhere -- (which I am wishing that I did a dozen years ago -- sheesh).
These craven Labour Party jackasses will in effect keep the upside in check for all of us and create what the Greens are hoping for -- which is no one risking a bet on the future commercial success of the Beetaloo -- until consumers on the East Coast kill off the Green and Labour Parties politically when gas prices go three or five times higher!!!
From ABC news reporting (below) on this latest fiasco with the Labour Party caving in to the Green party in order to get voting support for other bills and amendments. Crazy and possibly our biggest risk going forward -- as most politicians are craven jackasses that care only about staying in power and will lie, cheat and ruin a country just to stay in or get power, and the public has no idea of just how hard life could get without gas from the Beetaloo until it is too late. Hopefully, these carbon offsets don't cost more that the gas is worth to pull from the Beetaloo, as this jackass Bandt is quoted in the Guardian Article as saying these offsets will cost the Beetaloo a $billion dollars a year -- effectively killing the entire Beetaloo project.
Mega projects into doubt.
The agreement has thrown two major gas projects in the Northern Territory into doubt, according to the Greens and environmentalists.
Gas companies have been wanting to open up hydraulic fracturing in the Beetaloo Basin while gas giant Santos has been seeking to open up the Barossa Gas Field, located off the coast of the NT.
The Nurrdalinji Native Title Aboriginal Corporation, which represents traditional owners of the Beetaloo Basin region, released a statement today expressing optimism the amendments to the Safeguards Mechanism Bill would make it harder for gas companies to get their projects approved.
"Our country is in the hands of these big gas companies and I feel very grateful that we may one day not have to fight to protect our land, sacred sites, culture and water," said the corporation's chair, Johnny Wilson.
"No one has seen the jobs and economic benefits which have long been promised by the fracking companies, and we do not believe they will ever come."
Mr Bowen said the agreement would require "scope one" emissions from the Beetaloo to be offset.
Scope one and two emissions are emissions that are directly controlled or owned by companies, while scope three emissions are emissions not directly controlled by a company.
Mr Bowen said new gas fields would be required to have "zero reservoir carbon" during development.
"That's a condition which is international best practice and has been Australian best practice for many years," Mr Bowen said.
Mr Bandt said the agreement had effectively "derailed" both projects by imposing a limit on carbon emissions that prevented new coal and gas projects from being approved.
The forecast for Daly Waters is looking good next week for a possible Sentinel satellite shot showing some flaring from the Amungee H2 site by next Thursday or Friday?? The current forecast (link below) -- shows clear and sunny for all of next week -- so hopefully dprussky, ITguy, or Hardrock will be able to post a link once flaring is underway. This won't tell us much of anything about actual flow rates, but will at least indicate that gas is coming back to the surface with the tons of frack fluid going into the evaporation ponds.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map7day.shtml
The real news on flow rates might not come until Tamboran has recovered most of the frack fluids, (possibly using Nitrogen lift again like Origin did with the first Amungee well as Hardrock noted), and the production tubing has been installed by SilverCity completion services. This could put the news on flow rates another six to even 8 weeks away, but I am personally hoping that the flows are so good that Riddle will be forced to issue an update in the next couple of weeks.
If this Amungee H2 is flowing with 5 mm cfd coming up with the frack fluids in two weeks time, and that 5 mm rate is steady over a number of consecutive days -- then it is highly doubtful that this kind of success can be kept secret for long?? The flaring will tell us a tiny bit about the level of success, but more importantly -- Mr. Riddle will want to get out ahead of any rumours -- if the confidence level is high with the entire Pioneer team -- that flow rates will only get better with the production tubing installed. This would give Tamboran's stock (and Falcon's too) a big lift on the initial flow rates and then another huge boost when the 30 day flow rate, (after tubing has been installed), is announced. All speculation on my part, but feeling very positive and nervous at the same time -- LOL.
Hey Wet, just a minor correction which I believe is correct.
Tamboran is obligated to a 7.1% ORRI to Origin -- as they agreed to pay a 5.5% royalty on all gas sold out of the three Beetaloo permits -- so paying that 5.5% extra on Falcon's 22.5% share of gas production bumps Tamboran up to the higher overall rate. On top of this Tamboran has agreed to a 2.3% ORRI to Brian Sheffield along with the existing 1% to Bayless group. When you add in the Northern Territory's 10% royalty on gas sales -- Tamboran has a total of 20.4% or royalties to pay out compared to Falcon's 13% in total royalties.