The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Otd2000 -- some reasonable volume again this morning on the TSX which is holding onto the modest jump from late yesterday, and it only has to go another couple of pennies higher to get my small holding back to break-even.
Hopefully, this small price increase over the past day would be on speculation that good news is coming soon. However, this kind of small price appreciation also happens with Falcon when the seller volumes have almost completely dried up, (like we have seen over the past two weeks). Then, any new buyer that is trying to build a decent position -- is forced to start bidding a penny or two higher.
The real bonus that is indicated with this nice move up on less than 750 thousand shares -- is just how high the share price might go when the really good news is finally released. The volumes will most likely be in the millions of shares traded, as investment banks and brokerages get on board again, with hopefully a nice doubling or more on the share price from here??
If anyone knows the answer as to "IF" we will actually have flaring when the production tubing is fully in place or when we will ever see flaring of gas from this well -- it would be appreciated?? It would be nice to know if we actually have gas or just hot air is this darn Amungee H2 well.
Thanks for the satellite shot 805slo. Maybe -- before the next pass of the Sentinel Satellite -- you could pop by the Amungee H2 site and hold up a burning match or lighter -- just to get us excited that maybe there is some gas leaking out of that $40 million dollar hole in the ground -- LOL.
Hey Wet -- just for clarity -- when you and Hardrock are referencing a shorter "lateral" -- you are just switching "lateral" for "horizontal" and are not talking about just a "vertical" well -- correct??
I believe the logistics of doing a shorter 1km horizontal for the 3H well is now the current best bet going forward and not a 3 km horizontal until the 4H is drilled. (with both the Amungee 2H and the 3H put onto production at some point -- hopefully in late 2024).
It will be very interesting to hear what Santos decides to do on Tanumburini Station now that the NT Supreme Court has ruled on complete access to all pastoral stations? Santos still has a 75% interest in the permits where they drilled the Tanumbirini H1 and H2 wells that only flowed around 3 mm cf/d on each of the two one km horizontal wells. However, the first vertical DFIT tests that Santos ran across all three B shales in the velkerri zone -- indicated a test flow rate that was in excess of 10 mm cf/d on initial results from all three shale zones -- which was a stellar indication of what the Velkerri B shale has in place.
I am sure that Santos will be watching carefully how the Amungee H2 flows with the Pioneer teams US shale expertise and the larger 5.5 inch casing that Faron Thibodeaux has used for the first time in the Beetaloo. If the flow results are as good as we are expecting -- then Santos might find that the Beetaloo's 3% CO2 levels a bit more enticing than the Barossa offshore field's closer to 20% CO2 levels??
VillaMaria -- that reference in the ABC News article to Tamboran drilling a 3 km horizontal using the new H&P rig did seem to refer to Tamboran's EP 136 where Tamboran has already drilled the Maverick vertical leg. However, I am very sure that Tamboran will have to complete the second of two "one km long horizontals" on Falcon's permits before they can move the new H&P rig over to EP 136.
If Tamboran doesn't move forward on the last of the two contracted "horizontal" wells under the original Origin agreement -- then Falcon would likely be in a legal position to dissolve the current JOA that all parties entered into last year. Therefore, it is more than likely that the second one km horizontal on Falcon lands moves forward later this summer first -- with the Maverick 3 km horizontal possibly right after -- which could still be drilled before the end of 2023??
ilvelo -- no the H&P rig will be used on the second of the two wells that Tamboran committed to under the Origin purchase.
Falcon is owed one more well under the original Origin JV -- that is to be fully paid for by Tamboran. Tamboran will move to that second Falcon well before going back to EP136 -- due to that obligation. Plus Tamboran doesn't have excess available funds for anything but the next Falcon well before they will need to do another placement -- (hopefully at much higher prices due to the fantastic Amungee H2 flow results -- that may be coming this year sometime -- LOL).
PS -- clik on the download shown in blue on the previous link to read the Tamboran Press release on this win at the NT Supreme Court regarding access to EP 136.
Thanks Hardrock, Since it has been a month now since the fracking was completed -- it would be nice to know if they have production tubing installed by now, but the silence on all fronts is causing excess scotch consumption -- LOL..
This entire Amungee H2 well process, which is now taking over a half a year to drill and flow -- really makes me wonder how the ex-Pioneer team will ever drill enough wells to make the Beetaloo profitable?? Right now -- this team has a run rate of two wells a year and that doesn't equate to anything but huges losses for years to come.
On better news -- the NT appears to be moving much closer to a final approval for Fracking in the Beetaloo as per this ABC News article:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-19/nt-sreba-beetaloo-basin-fracking-study-complete-/102238532
Here is an excerpt from a speech that Bill Gates gave recently to the Lowy Institute in Sydney Australia -- thanks to a post by Shake It on the Empire chat board -- (with Shake It's own comments over the first two paragraphs and the Gates excerpts after Shake It's two paragraphs).
The Greens and Teals have Labour Party's Albo over a barrel with their numbers in parliament. As we know it is Green policy to ban all gas mining and ultimately use in Australia. As a shareholder in EEG it is in our interest to fight back with facts, hence this thread to help spread the positive stories about gas and especially the additional advantages of the resource in The Beetaloo.
Public opinion is shaped by the weight of media releases, having science on your side isn't enough if your friends and family don't hear about it. So spread the word. Start with this positive news from someone most people respect... Yesterday the undeniably smart and altruistic Bill Gates stood up and defended the role of gas in the journey to improve both the welfare of third world people and the environment.
"Mr Gates said he supported ongoing use of gas both for the developing world as a basic necessity and to create new energy from hydrogen.
“(Gas) is unavoidably a transition fuel,” he said after an appearance at The Lowy Institute in Sydney. “What can you do? It is there. It is not going to be banned. The ideal is that we can convert it into hydrogen at low cost.
“Poor countries should not be blocked from either using domestic or imported hydrocarbons until the rich world first and then the middle-income countries second can make the substitute technologies as inexpensive.”
Here is an excellent ABC News article from the Empire Board where Underwood is outlining plans to sell Beetaloo gas to the NT to help offset shortfalls from the Blacktip field.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/102078442
Thanks Hardrock, as this at least gives us some idea of what Tamboran might be trying to work around, and as you mentioned -- "hard to know without being there".
Some update by Tamboran on exactly what steps they are taking -- would be a smart move to my mind -- as the lack of news is creating a very uncertain environment with more selling coming our way for as long as Tamboran stays silent.
Longknife -- you definitely aren't whining or yelling fire -- as $.05 might even be a bit high if the flow news is 3 mm cu.ft or less per day??
If we are stuck waiting until the end of May -- it almost makes you wonder if selling last week would have been smarter than hanging on for this upcoming six week slow drip downwards?? Then again -- any leak from the site and any selling now could be caught on the wrong side -- as flows over 5mm should see the price double fairly quickly. Maybe we should ask our resident expert on selling high and buying low -- which is jfhealy. I think that jf has timed his selling in the past extremely well and might be close to playing with OPM (other people's money) by now -- LOL
Hardrock, Without giving away any confidences from associates that may be working in the Beetaloo, (as no one here expects anything of the sort), but I was wondering if you could give us any scuttlebutt as to whether the Amungee H2 is progressing as planned, or if possibly the Pioneer Team has run into real technical issues trying to clear that well??
Falcon's stock on the LSE and TSX is drifting lower every day now -- as it has almost been a month since the fracking was completed -- yet we have no flaring and no news as to how good or how bad the Amungee H2 is doing. If we have to wait another three or four weeks to get any news -- Falcon's share price will most likely give up all the gains since the horizontal leg was completed in 2022.
LongFOG -- if Poods sold off his shares -- we would all be crying as one cent or one pence would be our new low -- LOL.
I would gather from reading your totally incorrect post about Poods -- that maybe you haven't been on this forum for very long, as Poods is a well respected somewhat irregular poster to this Board. What Poods has to say will mostly be well received, but your post today is hopefully the last of your string of nasty posts!! Most posters to this Board try to add Falcon relevant information that helps us all deal with this sometimes very frustrating stock, but don't attack other posters.
While the legislation out of Canberra is of some concern, (as politicians very seldom make the right decisions on anything) -- it is also worth keeping in mind that the Green idiots have just made the Beetaloo gas much more competitive and most likely increased our future selling prospects.
If you look at the cost factors that all gas fields will have to deal with in getting to Net Zero in the future -- the Beetaloo now has a distinct advantage as our costs to offset 3 or 4% CO2 levels will be the lowest offset costs of any gas in Australia. Tamboran, and Empires offset costs will be four or fives times less than just about any other gas fields in Australia -- including Barossa, and even Inpex's Browse Basin gas which have CO2 levels of 14% to 18%.
The Green Party is crowing about killing the Beetaloo with this new legislation -- but the truth is completely the opposite, as now the Beetaloo gas has a significant cost advantage over most gas fields in Australia. I am fairly sure, from an old technical paper I read years ago, that the Beetaloo gas is so much lower in CO2 concentrations is mainly because the methane gas was created when billion year old green slime broke down which held less CO2 than the traditional gas fields from ancient forests that held much higher levels of CO2.
Whatever the reason is for our lower CO2 levels -- this Green party initiative has most likely given the Beetaloo a boost -- which is good news for the environment and even better news for us!!!
You may be right about offshore rules dprussky -- but if there were any offshore variations that would have helped Santos -- then I think Gallagher would have mentioned them during the AGM.
With the weather clear over the Amungee for five of the next seven days -- would you use your eye in the sky special satellite talents -- to see if you can spot any flares, as there should be some flaring by now I would think??
Santos updated their investors at their AGM late yesterday with news that they are moving forward with their Barossa offshore gas field even though it has 18% CO2 levels that will need to be offset.
This is possibly good news for the Beetaloo with only 3 to 4% CO2 levels that will need to be offset, but we need that commercial flow rate soon -- as that is our absolute key to finding the best way to work around this Green initiative?? While the details on how that low Beetaloo CO2 percentage will have to be offset -- it is encouraging to hear that Santos believes they can make an 18% CO2 gas field work. Here is a lengthy clip from the Santos AGM, but the full article is on the Australian publication -- where Gallagher takes a real hard swipe at the Labour Party's caving in to the Greens.
Santos has doubled down on its criticism of government intervention and red tape
in the Australian oil and gas sector, but reassured investors its $5.8bn Barossa gas
project in the Timor Sea remains on track despite the uncertainty surrounding
changes to the federal government’s safeguard mechanism.
Addressing shareholders at the company’s AGM on Thursday, Santos chief
executive Kevin Gallagher said the project was still on track to commence
production on time and on budget in 2025, but underlined the importance of the
company’s proposed Bayu-Undan carbon capture and storage project in meeting
the company’s environmental obligations.
Given the CCS infrastructure in Timor-Leste is not expected to be up and running
until 2027, Santos plans to offset its emissions at Barossa in the first two years of
operation by acquiring carbon offsets.
The new safeguard mechanism rules, due to come into force on July 1, require all
new gas fields for LNG export to be carbon-neutral from the time they start
producing.
Speaking after Thursday’s meeting, Mr Gallagher said the company remained
committed to the Barossa project, which would become one of the world’s least
carbon intensive LNG projects after commissioning of the CCS development.
“We’ve already invested in the pipeline, the Darwin duplication pipeline that
allows us to use the existing Bayu-Undan pipeline for the carbon capture project,
so we’ve invested a few hundred million dollars in that pipeline,” he said.
This press release by Tamboran is old news, but the second page is new I think and worth a quick read.
On the second page -- Tamboran compares the Beetaloo 3% CO2 to some of the legacy fields in Australia and shows a massive reduction in GHG (green house gases) if Beetaloo gas were switched in place of some of the older fields going forward.
file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/2A1440639_TBN.pdf