George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Thanks Thij for the newest flare shot from the Sentinel satellite flyover.
This flare looks very significant -- especially if you zoom in on the Sentinel link and then click on the Moisture button above the SWIR button on the left hand panel. On the Moisture button -- the flare shows up as red and yellow pixelated squares through what appears to be a water saturated and fairly dense cloud cover -- which seems to indicate a very strong flare.
Hopefully (that word is getting stuck in my posts -- LOL) -- we get a announcement soon that the 30 day flow test has started -- and we can all get back to ONLY positive postings on this great and very helpful Falcon Board.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-16.84177&lng=133.65243&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-01-28T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-01-28T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=5-MOISTURE-INDEX1&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Just some fun weekend reading on how Falcon might reach a value of a $billion in 2025/26 -- and possibly be sold to Inpex or one of Brian Sheffield's Texan associates.
Tamboran has already indicated that the dark blue CORE area on page 7 of their last couple of investor Presentations (see link below) is approximately one million acres in size -- out of the total four million acres that the 3 Falcon permits cover in the Beetaloo. This dark blue area shows the Velkerri B and C shales at a depth that is similar to the Tanumbirini #2 and #3 wells that Santos drilled -- where there is higher gas concentrations and a deeper depth for higher pressure gradients.
This dark blue area spans from the old original Shenandoah well in the north (drilled 16 years ago by Bruner) all the way down south far past the W1 well drilled by Origin. This dark blue area in the Falcon permits also has a much greater 300 foot thickness to the Velkerri zone -- which potentially could improve the overall gas recovery rates even higher than the Tanumbirini wells have the potential of.
There was an old valuation estimate that came out years ago -- that indicated that shale gas acreage could reach a value of around $4000 an acre if the gas reserves in the CORE area are pretty much proven, but not fully in production across that most prospective one million acres.
If the Pilot plan goes forward and gas is being sold by 2025/26, and we only give that CORE area a potential value of $4000 per acre for Falcon's 22.5% of that one million acres of CORE -- that puts a value of $900 million to Falcon's side of the ledger -- with the rest of the Falcon permits worth at least another $100 million. This is all just fun speculation on my part -- but if the 30 day flows are as good as Riddle is hinting at -- then maybe not out of the realm of possibility -- hopefully (LOL).
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/960cf320-f0b.pdf
The following link shows the increasing 30 day production numbers for Marcellus shale gas wells -- with the initial 30 day flows increasing from 5.6 mm cu. ft. per day in 2014 to around 15 mm cu. ft. per day in 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/
If anyone on the board can dig up, (and maybe provide a link to the article if possible), what a typical Marcellus well is IP’ing at (initial production rate) and the horizontal length of that well?? That might be helpful in giving us some comparisons when we finally get some flow rates back from Tamboran??
Good questions and thoughts frackme and Longknife,
There is no question that these SSH1 flow results are the most critical and important results for both Falcon and Tamboran for getting the Pilot Production program underway and keeping the momentum going forward in the Beetaloo!!
As Longknife indicated -- without something close to or above 2mm cu. ft over that 500 meter frack spread -- then Falcon drops back to a new low -- and Tamboran will be looking at a fairly comprehensive reorganization with BS at the helm and Riddle most likely out of day to day management.
The current swings in the share price between Falcon and Tamboran are pretty confusing -- but I think it is mostly related to confusion about this upcoming change of venue over to being a US company. Since it hasn't taken place so far -- there seems to be a disconnect with the Aussie price and what may come in the US (after the pink sheet listing in the US in no longer valid??).
There is no question in my mind that Falcon is in a much better financial position with half the number of shares outstanding and somewhere close to $5 million still in the bank. Falcon will have to sell something like 80 or 90 million shares in the late spring -- if the pilot program is a go, but that will totally depend on commercial flows from the SSH1. Falcon's share price should be at close to a double from here with commercial flows at the SSH1 -- so if that funding raise goes ahead -- the dilution for Falcon shareholders should be minimal. That kind of Falcon funding raise should also cover the next 4 to 5 wells in the Pilot plan.
On a very positive note -- (even though I don't think we have started the 30 day flow test -- as there should be some sort of clarity about the start of the 30 day test from Tamboran) -- the analysts in London (Cenkos and Tennyson) seem to be very upbeat about this SSH1 well and the ex-Pioneer crew that has been running the completion process!! One way or another -- we will know before the end of February -- which still leaves a good few months to get the Pilot production program underway after the rainy season ends.
Any time of the year is a good time to speculate about Inpex Hardrock -- LOL.
Not too surprised that Inpex finally gave up EP318 without doing any real exploration on that permit. The Northern Territory more or less forced Falcon to give back EP318 about ten years ago! The NT required that Falcon either do some exploration on that specific area or give it back to the NT -- and as it was the least prospective area of the Beetaloo -- Falcon handed that area back to the NT Resources dept. Then -- someone in the Resources dept. talked Inpex into applying for the exploration permit on EP318 -- with no real exploration work done to date.
Here is a link to short article on how Inpex would like to move forward with a third LNG Train in Darwin before the end of this decade. However, Inpex will need to secure new supplies of natural gas if they want to move forward -- as the offshore Browse Basin that currently supplies the two existing LNG Trains in Darwin don't have high enough reserves beyond what is already in place.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/energynewsbulletin-net_inpex-eyes-upstream-acquisitions-for-ichthys-activity-7153939211862077441-7VLB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Scinceday1 -- If Tamboran has been opening and closing the SSH1 repeatedly to clear the frack fluids in order to get a steady gas flow -- then there is a good chance that the 30 day flow test has either just started or possibly hasn't fully got underway as yet. If the next Sentinel satellite shot has clearer weather and we see flaring -- then that should be a good indication that the 30 day flow test has started.
If the 30 day flow test is late in getting started -- the good thing is that it makes no difference to the timetable on making the final decision on whether the Pilot production plans get started in late April -- due to the wet season not clearing the area for another couple of months.
Additionally -- even though we are treated like mushrooms (trying to hang on by our fingernails in the dark) - Tamboran and Falcon would already have a very strong idea of how the SSH1 is performing -- in between these shut downs. If the initial flows are looking as good, as we all would like to see, then Tamboran, who just completed a $55 million Aussie raise, -- will start booking supplies, equipment, contractors etc for the Pilot production program -- (so no real time lost while we wait for the 30 day test results).
The following link should take any Falcon holders to an interesting post by Smallfish991 over on the HotCopper bulletin board for Tamboran.
Smallfish has written out some of the areas of concern that Tamboran and Liberty may have to deal with when they start work in Australia this summer, and how successful they might or might not be at reaching the much lower costs of completion that are achieved with American shale gas wells.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/flare.7778719/page-26?post_id=71913580
Tamboran Successfully Completes Retail Entitlement Offer
Tamboran Resources Corporation (ASX: TBN) (Tamboran) is pleased to advise that it has successfully
completed the retail component (Retail Entitlement Offer) of its accelerated non-renounceable pro
rata entitlement offer on a 1 for 6.2 basis (Entitlement Offer), which was announced on the ASX on
Thursday, 14 December 2023.
The Retail Entitlement Offer follows Tamboran’s successful completion of an institutional placement
(Placement) and the institutional component of the Entitlement Offer (Institutional Entitlement Offer,
and together with the Placement, the Institutional Offer) which raised A$40.8m. The total amount
raised under the Placement and Entitlement Offer (together the Equity Raise) is approximately A$55.0
million.
The Placement and Institutional Offer was made to new and existing institutional investors and included
a A$15 million investment by Liberty Energy (Liberty) and Tamboran’s largest securityholder, Mr. Bryan
Sheffield, who participated in the Institutional Entitlement Offer for his full pro rata entitlement of A$8
million.
The funds from the Equity Raise will support the Company’s Beetaloo Basin activities to the sanctioning
of its proposed 40 MMcf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, which is planned for H1 2024. This includes
the purchase of long lead items to maintain project timeline and FEED activities. The Company currently
has 2,060,287,200 CDIs on issue.
Hardrock -- if you scroll down on the Aussie map in the general vicinity of the Beetaloo -- you will see a tiny red square which is a NASA reference to a possible fire.
Keeping the little red square centered and zooming in as tight as you can -- I think the NASA image is showing the Carpenteria Hwy right beside the red square -- so maybe that is an Empire flare that is indicated??
Hardrock -- just a quick question -- that you might have some experience with or know of others that have considered doing something similar to the following idea:
Is it possible that the completion guys working on the SSH1 could be using shutdowns as a method of increasing the pressure temporarily -- in order to clear more of the water and frack fluids from the SSH1 in order to get to a much higher concentration on shale gas through to surface??
Hopefully, (that word again) -- we will hear something from Tambo in the next few days that answers these questions -now that their recent financing deadline is almost up.
WW -- another rabbit hole could possibly be from some major dissatisfaction within the Aussie drilling, fracking and completion industry/companies with Tamboran -- for bringing in two major American companies to handle all of the Beetaloo development work going forward.
If Tamboran is also running long lead times before paying out for existing work already completed by the Aussie completion companies -- this could potentially explain a shut down if contractors have walked off the job?? Pure speculation on this last part -- but most likely pretty accurate on the paragraph above.
Many thanks Hardrock, as the closing down for Xmas seemed like a risky move!!
Now -- we can have some fun with everyone speculating on what the non-technical issue could be -- and one of my first guesses would be tied in with Mr. Riddle and his current financial capabilities???
Hardrock -- With no news at all from Tambo as to whether the 30 test has even started -- any flaring would certainly help while we wait to hear when the 30 days might be up.
Can you help clear up the other idea that maybe Tambo shut down the flow back process so the remaining completion crew could go home for Christmas holidays?? It seems to me that if the SSH1 is flaring and the frack fluids are getting pressurized back to the surface -- that stopping in the middle of that process for Christmas would make no sense due any number of risks of leaving the frack fluids and chemicals sitting in the formation for a few weeks??
Thanks Beetaloo for your post -- as the results in the next few weeks are so critical that most of us have our fingers crossed with you!!!
With the share price on Tamboran down 7 cents over the past ten days, and now Falcon is down 4 cents over the same ten days on the TSX -- there doesn't appear to be any good news being leaked from the SSH1 well site. We have no indications that flaring that has resumed, and Riddle is not putting out any news releases telling anyone what the flare shut down was all about?? The confidence level for anything close to commercial flows, now that Falcon's share price is below management's option pricing, does not look very promising at this point -- but keeping my fingers crossed too!!!
Now that we are into 2024 -- here are some thoughts that maybe everyone can chime in on at some point in the next couple of weeks as wait to see if the Ex-Pioneer completion crew can work their magic on the SSH1 well and show commercial volumes!!
Up until the past few weeks -- I have been questioning whether Falcon and Falcon's opportunities for a decent sale price for 22.5% of the Beetaloo shale gas could survive if we have another failed well -- on top of the two large failures to date and one more or less possible failure. The Amungee H2 well is complete failure, no matter what kind of spin Riddle tries to put on his screw-up with that frack job. The Lower Kyalla -- high liquids well, that Origin drilled a number of years ago, was also a failure. Plus to some degree the very first Amungee H1 well was more or less a failure with only 1.1 mm cu. ft. of actual gas flowing (before the reassessment of how only 4 fracks out of the 11 were actually contributing), and after the first 700 meters of the Amungee H1 horizontal leg had to be abandoned and the new 1 km horizontal drilled.
I was seriously wondering if Falcon could survive another failure if the SSH1 doesn't live up to some moderate expectations of commercial flows -- as the stock price for Falcon will plummet if this one is a dud too. However, I no longer think that Falcon's opportunity for a win will be completely gone if that happens, but rather the size of the win may go down quite a bit -- with a much higher dilution of Falcon shares required as POQ raises more funds to cover a longer Beetaloo development plan. If the SSH1 doesn't flow commercial -- then Tamboran's forward plans could get pushed back another two years, as the current plans for Pilot Production gets curtailed, and Tamboran undergoes a complete reorganization.
Falcon's stock price would get hammered down to new all time lows if the SSH1 doesn't meet some sort of moderated commercial viability, but given everything that has been learned about the Beetaloo over the past few years -- I now don't believe that Brian Sheffield and his Ex-Pioneer/Paisley Energy crew will give up on finding the right code to crack the Beetaloo! The size of the prize is just too darn big (especially given all the Marcellus data comparisons along with Santo's Tanumbirini H3 successful commercial flows and Empires encouraging results towards commerciality) for Sheffield and his Texas connections to stop working towards full commercial production at some point??
Many thanks smallfish9 for your input on why the flare could be out.
It would be nice if Tamboran and or Falcon could give us a minor update -- especially since everyone knows the flaring was already taking place and then stopped for whatever reason. As you already know -- I follow your posts to the HotCopper Board and once in a while copy what you have posted there -- over to this Board, (but always referencing who and where the post originated from -- which I hope is okay by you??).
GingerAle -- cool name, but be a bit better if you had put some "Rye" in there too!!
Your thought on a Farm Down is not a bad one, but I am almost positive that at this point in time POQ wouldn't give up another piece of the remaining 22.5% held by Falcon for even $100 million of free carry on the next ten or more wells needed for the full Pilot Production plans.
Back when POQ negotiated just over an extra $100 million in free carry with Origin for 7.5% of Falcon's then 30% of the Beetaloo -- Origin was still very much in the exploration phase of the Beetaloo and there was a long way and a great deal more expenses to be incurred before there was a clear line of site to commercial gas flows.
Currently -- we are moving much closer to the SSH1 flowing commercial and the first phase of what will most likely be a 3 to 5 well Pilot Production plan moving forward in 2024/25 (with another 4 to 5 wells, along with a gas processing plant and pipelines out to the Amadeus pipeline to Darwin in 2026). Instead of negotiating away another 7.5% of Falcon's remaining 22.5% share (with that 7.5% possibly generating $100's of millions in gas sales down the line for whoever buys Falcon's 22.5% interest) -- POQ is most likely going to go back to the market with a stock offering this spring/early summer.
If Falcon goes back to the stock market with 100 million shares offered at around 35 cents Cdn. -- that 10% dilution in Falcon's stock will cover Falcon's share of the almost $200 million for the next four to five wells -- as Falcon still
has approximately $5 million in the bank. Then Falcon will be looking at receiving 22.5% of the actual free cash flow that will start accumulating to a small degree -- so any future funding requirements would be at a much higher priced stock offering -- if we don't have a buyer by then??
The value of keeping the full 22.5% of Falcon's share of the Beetaloo -- which is one million acres of the most prospective shale gas outside of the Marcellus -- is now too valuable to give up any more pieces to my of looking at selling another piece??