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By the way, your sums will now have to be ADJUSTED FOR AMAPA TAXATION.
Do re-check but I gather it is 34% in Brazil in 2020.
As I said, I have checked some time ago from another PURE iron ore listed plc, and the figure they take off COMES TO 45-47% FROM EBIDTA.

Therefore, YOUR EBIDTA FIGURES ARE NOT TAXED which the JV cannot distributed WITHOUT PAYING TAX IN ANY COUNTRY.

As for $200, I take the Chinese iron ore prices but you take what you view is appropriate for yourself.

I am hoping that you are not the same chap who believed that the Czech govt*s minority party ie Communist was going to take back Cinovec lithium from EMH, an investee co of KDNC at some 20% some time ago but this figure is now nearer 9%.

We, shareholders provided links to politicians in their parliament discussing this matter and that to take Cinovec could involve international arbitration and that means big $$$$.

In the end, Czech govt went with the discussions per their radio channel and now their largest ultility has taken a 50% stake in Cinovec [EMH] and attributed a PREMIUM of substantial %.

I say this is because, this chap on EMH would NOT BE CONVINCED that a minority Communist party does not have 100% total power and from empirical evidence, they do take the sensible route given advice. However, not always the case in all cases but this is what happened.

DYOR. IMO. This is history now but I think it is profitable to go to and fro.

Thanks eyeguy. Take your figures to the main KDNC forum as I am sure many will be interested?

News, 1 Mar 2021.

By the way, to answer: "DEPRECIATION DOES NOT COME OFF IT, JUST TAX" per EyeGuy.

EBITDA
The Amapa iron project is NOT HELD in the hands of KDNC but rather the JV co called DEV of which KDNC could hold 20% initially and the rest is Sino.

When EBITDA of say $136m is cited by KDNC modelling, you now accept that TAX MUST COME OFF IT which is quite a lot to take off.

You feel that depreciation DOES NOT COME off it. However, in FORMAL ACCOUNTING, the FINAL NET PROFIT FIGURE MUST ALWAYS TAKE IN DEPRECIATION, AMORTIZATION if necessary which is standard.

Then, from the NET PROFIT figure, the JV can make a DECISION for a DISTRIBUTION. This is going to be quite complex as to whether it is a distribution or via a dividend. I am not nuanced in Brazilian taxation laws. Then, it has to be converted to £*s as ALL COMMODITIES ARE QUOTED IN US$, even iron ore. There is also possible for EXCHANGE RATE adjustments just like FTSE co*s that operate with overseas subsidiaries. So, lots of accounting.

Whether one likes it or not, DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION is part of EBITDA ie EARNINGS BEFORE TAX, DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION.

There is also RETAINED EARNINGS as no one is going to deal with a JV with $0 in the bank with 100% net proifit distributed. There can also be IMPAIRMENT but that is not the case but something that is norm in any co to consider-everything must be considered.

If you do NOT AGREE, that is FINE BUT THAT IS BRAZILIAN OR STANDARD ACCOUNTING METHODOLOGY.

As I have said, GO TO THE KDNC AGM AND ASK OR TELEPHONE KIRAN MOZARIA ABOUT THIS AND CHECK - IT IS CALLED DUE DILIGENCE AND Do Your Own Research [DYOR].

Mon, 1 Mar 2021

Per observer842 at 08:19: "Another failed attempt to stop shipping", a link was given to Jusbrasil.
From the reading of the judgement, it would appear that the request for APPEAL to the Supreme Court has been denied. I read it quickly but I think there are 2 avenues and the citation of what is needed to fulfil the condition/s. LoL, looks like they did try to take the judicial avenue-kindly read and check.

EyeGuy
In reply to your post that I have just seen relating to Amapa, if you feel, think etc that Amapa has a valuation of $1 Billion vs $600m per Kiran Mozaria on Directors talk a few days ago + what Alan Green said about a NEW AMAPA VALUATION which has to come from a Tier 1 Investment Bank, by all means, go with your view.

As for me, I go with the OFFICIAL VALUATION from potentially a Tier 1 Investment Bank which will be the JP Morgan*s, Citi Bank, Goldman Sachs of this world? One presumes that Mr Mozaria was giving the latest VALUATION DONE ON AMAPA but as I said kindly ALWAYS CHECK WITH KDNC ETC.

No point going to and fro, EyeGuy. This forum is NOT read by mainstream KDNC*er but more the old timers from REM days which count 2-3 people.

Thanks.

News, 1 Mar 2021 [Mon]

P.S.

I have done further sums of the latest bank valuation for Amapa vs the potential modelling done by the JV [KDNC-Sino]. The JV did their modelling on $61/t. Currently, the iron ore price is about US$174 approximately. If what Mr Mozaria, CEO, KDNC said in his latest Directors T interview of 2 days ago of US$600m for Amapa, then the figures I worked out suggests that the bank takes very little downside RISK relating to the iron ore price and appears to NOT work valuations at iron ore highest prices. So, one that one can only revisit in 17.5 years time as said.

News, Sun 28 Feb 2021.

That*s all on the topic of KDNC-REM. I have checked further on the lithium forecasts and different investment banks give a variance in their date of expected deficit that is IF it eventuates and there is NO repeat of co*s all rushing in all at once like the last time. Useful to hear from Mr Mozaria, CEO of KDNC that the co*s that survive are those with LOW COSTS and with particular locations eg CINOVEC [EMH] IN EUROPE.

Today, Sun 28 Feb 2021, I decided to listen to other forum chatter on KDNC. I note that the HISTORIC share price of KDNC had falled to 5p at one stage recently with a MKT CAP OF £6M.

It appears that the more professional investors bought in at around this 5p mark and some sold at 14-15p, thereby realising 300% or 3X and some 400% or 4X [those who kept some or all of their shares at 5p.] CURRENT SHARE PRICE IS AROUND THE 19P MARK, MKT CAP £24M last time I checked. For clarity, I HAVE NEVER BOUGHT KDNC SHARES AT 5P.

HISTORY OF KDNC
The Amapa project Court process has been going on for some time. From the latest Court result, it was NOT surprising that the JV won against the creditors. Why? The ruling favours the JV in that they have a plan to bring Amapa back into production together with the stockpile sale. This effectively means that the STATE OF AMAPA, BRAZIL WILL BENEFIT in terms of taxes, job creation and port activities. The deal is also structured that the JV [KDNC & Sino] receive a fair share of US$10m for their efforts in selling the stockpile which would DEFRY THEIR ORIGINAL COSTS TO BRING THIS ABOUT which is currently in deposit. Thereafter, should the iron ore price hold for the WHOLE OF MINE LIFE, then the JV would benefit but they take on the SAME commodity price risk as Zamin in essence [as it appears? which is norm in ANY COMMODITY]. I have also read about the potential dates etc.

WHAT HAPPENED?
Some of us legacy folks from days of REM plc under the Founder have remained POSITIVE given that everyone was aware that there was a commodity bear market in LITHIUM FOR MANY YEARS of which even big projects like Nemaska with hundreds millions in mkt cap went to the wall and is history now. Thankfully, the 20% SONORA & 30% JV[BCN] & 20% CINOVEC [EMH] stake were NOT AFFECTED as Mr Mozaria informed that their 2 investee co*s have LOW COSTS. Its these 2 LEGACY ASSETS [LITHIUM] THAT SAVED KDNC OR REM AND THE FOUNDER*S STRATEGY WORKED AS THE CO WAS HEDGED. One investor from days of REM wanted the co to go to 49% stake in the JV and thankfully, the Founder said the price was too expensive. Instead, the Founder bought BCN stock as a hedge as the JV would take it to Stage 2 before any advantage. Mr Mozaria now elucidates that it is YEAR 8 onwards for the BNC-KDNC JV.

TODAY, OUR POSITIVE OUTLOOK HAS SEEN LIGHT - SENTIMENT DROVE THE KDNC SHARE PRICE TO ROCK BOTTOM not helped by naysayers saying that the EMH stake could not be sold. Today, Mr Mozaria said that EMH went from $3m to $13-14m for KDNC.

So, a PARTY for some and for those who sold with all the ...SENTIMENT a loss?

This is now the HISTORY for REM-KDNC. I have learnt something very important which I have found COMMON to many forums that SENTIMENT can drive share prices IRRESPECTIVE OF THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS of the stock/co.

Too many co*s to name. So, a lesson that will stand in good stead.

A POSITIVE OUTCOME for us positive folks.

News, S

Not enough space.

[Current exchange rate 1.4].

CONCLUSION:
One can use a useful metric of the current bank valuation to counter check with the actual modelled EBITDA and net profit.

A/c to the latest bank valuation, it is US$ 4 2 . 8 5 MILLION per year over 14 years = US$600m valuation presumably for whole of life mine VS $68 million [100% share] NET profit AFTER tax, depreciation and amortization @$61/t average.

One can only conclude that the bank takes in a GREATER MARGIN which is norm so that they have a degree of safety for obvious reasons.

So, I have demonstrated in full, the HYPOTHESIS in the REAL WORLD of investment banking valuations vs KDNC modelling [or rather the JV] vs folks current IRON ORE PRICE MODELLING.

WHO WILL PROVE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS [18 mths for shipping + 18-24 mths for scoping study and recommissioning and then 14 years of whole of mine life]?

That is a question that can only be ANSWERED IN THE FULLNESS OF THE END OF 17.5 YEARS from today ie Feb 28, 2021.

That is for EACH legacy investor in REM and new investors to decide on. Legacy investors themselves on the main forum that their objective is to get back their original capital investment. New investors have expressed that they want to be x, y and z so that is also up to them.

However, the figures are counter-checked to see HOW all the VARIOUS FIGURES PLAY OUT.
Zamin bought Amapa for US$240-250m post the port accident - I am sure they took a valuation as norm.

I am having a cup of tea but thought it best to give SOME BACK-UP of REAL-LIFE VALUES from the latest valuation report on Amapa DESPITE THE INVESTMENT BANK COGNISANT THAT THE PRICE OF IRON ORE IS HIGHER THAN $61/t modelled. However, investment banks or banks will not take the HEIGHT OF THE IRON ORE PRICE to model but rather they have their own modelling systems taken over the various cycles vs economic cycles etc.

Otherwise, there could be unhappiness over NOT TAKING US$175 /t for iron ore which is at the moment as folks could WONDER WHY CANT ONE TAKE TODAY*S HIGHEST PRICE FOR THE NIEXT 17.5 YEARS? If prices go even higher that could be the effect of inflation? At the momo, everyone is not entirely sure how this is going to play out?

Sun, 28 Feb 2021.
Thought it best to clarify.

In his Christmas [ Dec 2020] tips, Alan Green mentioned that Amapa has had a NEW VALUATION.
I gather that the Joint Venture has sought a new valuation for Amapa presumably from a Tier 1 investment bank.

Alan Green did NOT disclose what this new valuation was. However, in the latest Kiran Mozaria, CEO interview with *************, he mentioned Amapa $600m. So, I am assuming that this could be the new valuation. However, if not sure listen to the interview or ask Mr Mozaria if it is correct to think this is the latest valuation for Amapa?

Given that Amapa has a MINE LIFE OF 14 YEARS, that appears to show that the valuation of US $600m for 100% interest = US$ 4 2. 8 5 million a year [600 divided by 14 ?

From the given @14:20, Sat, 28 Feb 2020 post:
"Average net revenue $266m
Average EBITDA $136 million per year.
At full production using US$61/t."

As said US$136m per year EBITDA does not take into account TAXATION to the authorities.
In one of the pure iron ore co*s I checked some time ago, their accounts showed that from EBITDA to final NET PROFIT shaved off another 45%. Each country*s TAXATION is different, so I assumed that to take off 50% is safest to take in everything possible.

So, that means that the JOINT VENTURE CO [100% Amapa] could have US $ 68 million to distribute. However, in practice, the JV CANNOT DISTRIBUTE 100% as it needs to RETAIN SOME WORKING CAPITAL.

VALUATION:
If it is correct that the NEW VALUATION is US$600m, then it was taken at a time when iron ore prices were already around US$140/t. Even then, the investment bank would NOT give a valuation that reflects CURRENT iron ore prices prevailing at the time the VALUATION was sought recently. Why is that? Investments banks have all the data of iron ore prices over X no of years etc.

Amapa was once valued at US$1 billion from recall [around this region + -] prior to the PORT accident.

So, for investors of iron ore via Amapa, they appear to be taking a "bet" on iron ore prices staying high for the NEXT 14 YEARS without any FALL in prices once Amapa has been RE-COMMISSIONED [18 mths shipping stock piles and another 18-24 mths to do scoping study and recommissioning].

Hence, for that reason, the model was for US$61/t. Whether that has been revised, folks can ask KDNC?

COUNTER CHECK:
One can check the net profit attributable to KDNC [if 20% stake in Amapa].
Average EBITDA $136m [US$] per year. If 50% shaved off for tax, depreciation and amortization, that leaves US$ 68 million. I have seen one pure iron ore co shave off 45-47% for tax, depreciation and amortization some time ago so kindly check if one can find a listed co that sells iron ore from Brazil to get a more specific country %.

KDNC could then get US$ 1 3 . 6 million if prices modelled is for US$61/t.
If, it is average of US$120/t over the whole LIFE OF MINE @14 years averaged out, then, it could be in THEORY US$ 2 7. 2 million OR £ 19. 42 MILLION [current ex

Not enough space.

Lastly, on this subject matter, NEW INVESTORS WILL HAVE TO TAKE THEIR OWN VIEW AND DUE DILIGENCE SHOULD BE DONE.

For LEGACY HOLDERS FROM REM DAYS, I CANNOT BE BLAMED EITHER IF THERE IS NO RECESSION FOR THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS [life-span of KDNC AMAPA IRON ORE], govts decide to do big INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS and therefore, iron ore prices are still GOOD at some US$173/t.

In iron ore, some have made FORTUNES eg Fortescue and Han**** but others also have lost fortunes.

So, whilst I put out some more realistic figures from what is known and given by the co, I cannot GUARANTEE ANY FIGURE, whether UP OR DOWN.

I work on a CONSERVATIVE MODEL FROM THE CO*S OWN FIGURES and I watch from thereon.

Some have lost their capital and therefore, for legacy holders, ONLY THEY CAN DECIDE WHAT IS THEIR FUTURE PLANS RELATING TO THEIR REM plc stock and that is based on their own view and due diligence.

I take the middle of the road approach - I do not take the HIGH END nor the LOWEST END. Most of all, I watch for the OVERALL MACRO POSITION AND MICRO WILL FOLLOW - this is NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE as some want to get rich overnight.

Whatever it may be, I wish legacy holders from REM days the best and hope that everything turns out.

News, Sat 27 Feb 2021.
I will not be looking in ie at this forum for the next foreseeable weeks etc.
DYOR. Best for a BALANCED VIEW SO THAT ONE CAN SEE THINGS A BIT MORE CLEARLY?

I would like to make one last point:

1] I do not normally want to post CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS. Why? It is NOT popular as folks want to dream that a stock will make them rich overnight. These days, its a bit harder as one can see most stock prices do not jump 100*s of % unless everyman and his do is in the stock sort of thing. Also, traders tend to take profit of 10% and some say 5% although I am not sure how they can make a profit on 5% given the spread is quite high and in a more illiquid stock, the market will not take a lot of stock at one time.

2] Folks tend to blame the co if they do not become rich from any stock. However, for the co, their fiduciary duty is to see that the co survives. So, folks think that the duty of the co is to make them rich and this is what happened at REM. The Chairman/CEO is not a god in that they can control commodity prices, oversupply situation in lithium etc.

3] The market will not VALUE a stock into hundreds of millions unless they hit a TIER 1 DISCOVERY SAY. Tier 1 discoveries are far and few. Sonora was certainly a big discovery but the only thing is that it was not wholly owned by REM then. Perhaps there was an arrangement of goodwill but that is something one is not privy to given that his Lordship is much older than the Founder at the time?

4] Whilst Amapa is a good project in that it is NOT starting from scatch needing hundreds of millions for capex, nevertheless, it is dependent on the INCOME coming in for the next 17.5 years [3.5yrs +14 years mine life]. It may turn out really well, its ALL DEPENDENT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE. Even Fortescue which started in IRON ORE can no longer just depend on their iron ore operations and the Founder is going all over the world,looking for potential Tier 1 GREEN ENERGY metal etc/deposits. Same for Gina Rinehart, the iron ore billionaire.

5] IF THERE IS A RECESSION or a deep recession arising from the recent events, then certain ECONOMY metal prices may not hold? That is is widely known. As for GREEN ENERGY, it is dependent on whether it can go FULL STEAM AHEAD or it is slowed down due to FINANCES ie money. As pointed out by Kiran Mozaria in his latest interview, there is a GREEN ENERGY commodity cycle and a NON-GREEN cycle. So, Mr Mozaria is RIGHT ONLY AS AT FRI, 26 FEB 2021. THE REST IS UP TO EACH ON TO KEEP ON TOP OF WHAT IS GOING ON as it is wk to wk, mth to mth and even in some case, events led.

6] This FORUM IS NOT READ BY THE MAIN forum. I only posted so that the LEGACY INVESTORS can discuss in their own external group - they NEED TO RECOVER THEIR LOSSES. As a group akin to funds, they can approach Mr Mozaria to ask him to consider their positions. After all, the legacy holders from REM want to recover AS MUCH AS THEY CAN FROM THEIR LOSSES due to the downturn in lithium prices and the failed takeover of Sonora. Hence, why I made an exception of posting as I am aware folks love nothing better than we are going to get RICH.

P.S.

Not enough space. It is generally known that even for LARGE OIL MAJORS say, they take a price that is smoothened out. If the CEO makes a mistake of the price curve and does not accordingly run the co and costs on those lines, then there could be trouble. I dont want to mention names of co*s but that is something well known.

No one KNOWS THE INTERNAL PRICES of co*s as that is generally NOT DISCLOSED. However, sometimes it becomes known when it is HISTORIC.

There was a commodity expert called Amanda on London South East many years ago and she said that in a commodity down-turn, prices of junior miners can fall 90%. In reality, some fell more than 90%. It was on the header page so I listened to the interview.

So, it is NOT usual INDUSTRY STANDARD to take TODAY*S PRICE AND EXTRAPOLATE IT TO 3.5 YEARS TIME AND 14 YEARS INTO THE MINE LIFE.

However, always good to have a BALANCED VIEW.

Certainly, it is a call that NO ONE AT THIS STAGE CAN FORECAST INTO 17.5 YEARS TIME.
NONE OF THE EXPERTS ARE LOOKING OUT SO FAR. Futures is a good indicator or not.

With that, thank you.

News, Sat 27 Feb 2021.
DYOR.

To each investor, it is UP TO THEM. It is their SAVINGS INVOLVED and all the calculations must be their own and what the co has projected vs actual industry benchmarks and other co analysis in the PARTICULAR SECTOR.

TOO HIGH, TOO LOW - that is the FUTURE.

Will KDNC become an iron-ore co from GREEN ENERGY? I DONT KNOW AS NO ONE HAS SAID.

Even for lithium, there is a PRICE CURVE as with most commodities.

Per 14:20 post:
"Average net revenue $266m.
Average EBITDA $136m
At FULL production and using $61/t 62% Fe."

$136m is EARNINGS BEFORE TAX, DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION.
20% KDNC share = 20% x US$136M = US$ 27. 2 million [I recalled Alan Green saying US$28m]
So, in £*s, that is £19.42 million [FX 1.4]
So, AFTER TAX, DEP & AMORZ? From open search, if correct, tax [corp] in Brazil for 2020 is 34% but please check.

As said, in FULL PRODUCTION means that any project cannot just ramp to full production from day 1 as co*s usually or normally build up to full production.

As for the stockpiles, the Founder recently tweeted that it could bring in MORE than $200m which is about right IF current prices of iron ore hold. NONE of this can be used by the JV co as they are only allowed $10 MILLION PROFIT. KDNC stands to get US$2M [20% x 10m] but that has to be juxtaposition with their earlier deposit to get 20%. The REST of the MONIES from the stockpile is to be used for AMAPA presumably for re-commissioning.]

In 3.5 years time [18 mths for stockpile shipping and 18-24 mths for re-commissioning] if it can be done in that time without any hiccups [one has to always include possible biz disruptions etc for any co], that means that in the meantime, it is considered forward potential EBITDA?

Conservatively, SAY use $120/t [$61/t x 2 = 100% upside], then EBITDA could be £19.42m x 2= £40m BEFORE TAX, DEP & AMORTZ. One has to consider exchange rate as Alan Green quoted £21 million but that was when £1=US$1.3 or a bit less?

Say, one takes 50% of that = £20m net to KDNC [50% for tax, dep, amoz and anything else for safety. One has to look at other iron ore co*s in Brazil to get a better picture. I did look at another iron ore operating co on LSE quite some time ago and they also tend to take a more conservative view.

£20m a year net to KDNC could mean that KDNC could have a mkt value of some £200m.
If one is conservative, one has to use a lower sum for any other operational expenses of the main co which means maybe £15m a year.

At max P/E 10 that would equates to potentially some £150m mkt cap. Usually, iron ore co*s [pure iron ore] do not trade on P/e 10 from my previous checks but the latest I do not know.

The Founder of this co said not so long ago that REM [new name KDNC] could get back to the old mkt cap which is £95m at 2.25p [old money] at the HEIGHT.

From looking at some posts, some of the folks bought in at 0.9p , old money.

That is what the strategy is from what I can see from the tweets? I have not heard that we are all going to be XYZ rich.

So, give and take, it would appear correct provided IRON ORE PRICES HOLD somewhat.

The Founder of REM-KDNC never liked to take 100% risk so he hedged and thankfully for that or else, there is no KDNC today. How? The 20% BCN & 20% EMH stakes saved the co at a time of the upturn in lithium prices etc.

I am NOT privy to what is happening? Not sure if KDNC i

LoL
Eyeguy

The figures I quoted are NOT FROM ME - it was from recall from Alan Green in his recent interview. I tried looking for my notes which is all over the place so I could only quote from recall.

Any working accountant and CEO CANNOT TAKE iron ore price today which is at its high and extrapolate them 3 1/2 years out ie when Amapa goes on FULL-STEAM AHEAD.

I dont think they can ramp up immediately if other projects are a guide as they have to get it to run on a model first and then ramp up?

The figures you quote 3 1/2 years time MAY OR MAY NOT BE CORRECT THEN. Also, co*s can forward sell but the downside is if the price goes higher. However, in taking spot, there is a risk of a downside in price, hence why co*s have to gauge the curve etc.

As for the $932MILLION REVENUE & EBITDA of $732m circ - the EBITDA seems rather high and therefore EBITDA net to KDNC of $146m could also be too high given the $732m.

Bearing in mind, the VALUATION OF AMAPA has just been done per Alan Green in his Dec 2020 interview, that would be a more accurate figure.

Even Mr Mozaria mentioned $600m for Amapa re:valuation [this has come down after the port accident].

If, say EBITDA is $732m, then the valuation of Amapa should be some $7.32 BILLION if P/e is 10? This is just to COUNTER-CHECK.

Hence, why I say to look at the figures given and then to re-value from there and take in TAX, DEPRECIATION, AMORTIZATION AND POSSIBLE INSURANCE given what happened?

It is of import that the figures done MUST REFLECT FINAL AUDITED ACCOUNTS of KDNC STARTING FROM YEAR 3.5 YEARS and the variance of good valuation-figures should be out by some 5% VARIANCE.

IF , one were to take $146 million net EBIDTA to KDNC , that is £104 MILLION PER YEAR.
At P/E 10 say KDNC could be trading at £1.04 BILLION vs £24m odd today.
Even P/E 5, say which is almost impossible, the mkt cap could be £521 MILLION.

Hence, why I say that the figures have to be CHECKED properly and whether they will REFLECT the ACTUAL AUDITED FIGURES STARTING 3.5 YEARS TIME AND WHETHER IRON ORE PRICES WILL HOLD AT THIS CURRENT PRICE OF $175 approx, the highest.

Zamin went under as iron ore prices fell to $40 and touched $35 at one stage. Zamin was a specialist in metals trading. Nemaska, Bald Hill etc all have gone under DUE TO LITHIUM PRICES.

I have not looked at the current projections. One will have to look deeper as I said and SUMS NEED TO BE CYCLE TESTED etc.

Trust this explains matters.

News, 27 Feb 2021.
DYOR.
I only commented as the figures are so high that it would potentially take KDNC to the AIM 100 list at those sort of mkt caps? They need further DUE DILIGENCE possibly from accountants who do this for a living in major mining co*s.

I have just been to Twitter. There is excitement as to how much KDNC will make from AMAPA iron ore project at 20%, 27% & 49%.

Back of the envelope sums suggest $X [3 figures] millions which will start EARLIEST 3 1/2 years time [18mths to ship and 18-24 mths to recommission] using today*s iron ore price of $176.
Figures used are EBITDA NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT this may not be handed to KDNC WITHOUT TAX BITDA etc. Nor, is there consideration as to how the NEXT 7% is to financed and how the co*s finances are to be managed UNTIL Amapa comes onstream.

Also, will the iron ore at the time be FORWARD SOLD or going to spot?

As said, one cant blame co*s if people do cals on the back of envelopes without it reflecting ACTUAL ACCOUNTING METHODS.

And if NEW FOLKS BUY on these wonderful figures, then there could be a new cycle of unhappy holders. Example, Alpala-for years folks talk of bidding wars from majors for the asset but bidding wars have gone out a long time ago. The industry had commissioned new reports and the advice was for majors to do JV*s with junior explorers and this is what has been happening. Lots of examples.

Hence, why a need for deeper evaluation and more discipline in conservative accounting?

Money is involved ie folks savings and one should look more deeply and get a grip on the ground on the industry and its trends rather than read an article and go off on a tangent?

That*s all folks.

News, Sat 27 Feb 2021.

News, 27 Feb 2021.
I am also taking some time off as all forums are either too optimistic vs actual or too pessimistic concentrating on personalities etc which means that actual projects are not looked at in 3 scenarios, best, mid and worst case. If worst case is NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, then the co goes under eg Nemaska - the large Canadian lithium project and others which Mr Mozaria mentioned that went to the wall.

Thankfully, KDNC is still here from its LEGACY assets and hopefully going foward the new iron ore project will be of help?

I can now take my leave.

In the coming period ahead, one can fill in the dots and blanks as info comes in.

Sat, 27 Feb 2021.

Part 2:

Business is NOT A ONE WAY BET. Sonora Lithium project has turned out to be one of the biggest per the ranking [see posts earlier].

That was all FINANCED by REM plc [old name for KDNC] ie drilling in the early days.

REM plc*s TAKEOVER was rejected at £1 for Bacanora [Sonora]. That appears to be what everyone invested in - on the main forum, folks cited the AGM notes.

What happened, no one knows as to how REM plc financed SONORA at a time when Canadian co*s could not get finance but in the end, it ended with an outright rejection and the co decided to seek a UK listing instead?

So, REM-KDNC was saved by its BCN [20% stake] and EMH [20% stake] initiated by the Founder of REM plc.

Or else, KDNC would NOT BE HERE. A blogger thought KDNC could NOT SELL the EMH stock given the size but was unaware of the lithium cycle uptick and also that EMH is a low cost producer as Mr Mozaria pointed out yesterday.

REM was formed to take advantage of the LITHIUM-EV market. This market is just starting and HOW FAR IT WILL GO, no one knows to the VERY END as FORECASTS can only go forward so many years as norm.

So, in the meantime, whilst AMAPA comes to fruition, STOCKPILES WILL BE SOLD IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS once the deal is finalised. THEN ANOTHER 18-24 MONTHS FOR RE-COMMISSIONING and 14 year mine life provided the iron ore prices are sufficient?

Meantime, the co would have to manage the EMH stake etc.

The Founder is no longer here and folks have not acknowledged his contribution or else there could be NO KDNC today without the 20% & 20% stakes in BCN and EMH.

Let*s hope the cycles continue for the next few years per forecasts BUT forecasts ALWAYS CHANGE as there are hiccups either way.

What HEDGE will there will be THIS TIME? From what I read, folks appear to think that AMAPA could be the road to RICHES - often this is the norm ie thinking on most forums.

Hence, I am watching the situation with the type of analysis the market is FULLY AWARE OF even if shareholders are not in agreement. In the past, the MM*s gave KDNC market-to-market for its investments which some were not aware of. Now, the only mark to market is the EMH stake.

I am sure Kiran Mozaria and Mr Suckling will do their best for this co and their work is testament to the fact that KDNC is still here despite naysayers.

The market is WELL AWARE of value models. Mr Mozaria said that the sp should reflect and I think that is as the project progresses etc?

DYOR. I CANNOT PREDICT the future ie PRICES as it is MINUTE TO MINUTE sort of thing or wk by wk, mth to mth and policies ie green etc. Neither can ANY CO.

News, 27 Feb 2021 [Sat]

Just in case, there is some confusion. From yesterday*s Kiran Mozaria interview with Directors Talk, he mentioned COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE and how it is DIFFERENT from the one in 2008.
It is DIFFERENT because this supercycle is to do with ELECTRIFICATION of electric cards etc.

Iron ore has always been on a different CYCLE and it has to do with INFRASTRUCTURE. Therefore, it is hoped per Mr Mozaria that Europe is going the infrastructure way?

It has been commented on that "we" [shareholders] DONT want KDNC to start on LITCHFIELD, next to Core Lithium [FINNISS project, Northern Territories, Australia] as "we" want them to concentrate on IRON ORE ie AMAPA.

ALL PROJECTS CANNOT BE STARTED ON INSTANTLY due to needing to do exploration, studies and finally FUNDING. For lithium, many of the known co*s are ramping up production. WHY? In doing so, they are catching the good prices for spod [Mr Mozaria touched on spod prices when he mentioned Finniss]. So, again, those LATE TO THE LITHIUM PARTY AND HAVE HIGH CAPEX [capital cost] may again find themselves in the cold should the demand NOT RISE exponentially given there may be a time lag. One cant CONVERT every car immediately to electric if one does not have the grid to cope with charging - also problem whether it is a standard charge etc.

Sonora has been mentioned by Mr Mozaria ie the JV starts FROM YEAR 8. Yangibana - Mr Mozaria did not touch much on this project as there may be further steps to go given the JV is again for the second stage.

So, FROM A LITHIUM investment co, KDNC may become an IRON ORE CO given the Amapa project.

Saving grace is the stockpile which hopefully will catch the higher prices at $163 and enough to FINANCE the re-commissioning work although KDNC has to pay $6m to pay for the scoping study to earn 27% [from 20%].

Just as KDNC was SAVED BY ITS LEGACY ASSETS BROUGHT IN BY THE FOUNDER OF REM plc, what is going to HEDGE THE NEW KDNC?

Those in the lithium space ie big boys all know about the last time and hence why they are going in to take advantage of the rising spod prices [lithium]. Morgan Stanley yesterday talked of battery shortages so again, a LAG TIME here.

The Founder in leaving REM brought in Mr Suckling who is a metals trader. From his contacts in that world, he knows Sino, commodity traders in Spore. They would hear about ZAMIN and the Amapa project which had been grounded.

What is the Founder doing? Recently, he helped in the latest financing of a finance and bitcoin app that is in the news [he @to the CEO so that if not correct, then correct]. He also managed to get in a $6bn co to look at his tailings, he also helped in getting the licence next to Jundee and in another case a licence next to Havieron.

Kiran has done a good job in execution as that is not the specialism of the Founder etc. So, identification of projects needs contacts especially in Australia. So, that is balance and therefore, helpful going forward.

Meantime., all

From Kiran Mozaria*s interview today, some timelines:

BACANORA JV:
30% JV much later, YEAR 8 ONWARDS. Given that BCN*s JV partner paid out some US$50m+ for 50% share of Sonora in 2 tranches, then 100%= $100m to gross it up per norm. So, if the JV section of Sonora is the same, then KDNC could get $15m [30% of $50m of 50%]. Dallasdaz said that the old presentation gave a figure of $30m. This would be correct if a partner bought 100% of the project at this type of price.

EMH:
I think KDNC was saved by the EMH holding as the lithium mkt turned up and the $3m holding became $13-14m.

AMAPA IRON ORE
Indications of a final settlement could be on the horizon as Mr Mozaria mentioned final settlement. From what I understand, the iron tailing shipment will come to over $200m per the Founder*s tweet below. Only $10m profit is allowed to be retained.

So, KDNC will get some $2m [20% of $10m] which is helpful to defry the monies to pay for the expenses to get Amapa going.

AFTER SHIPPING FOR 18 MONTHS relating to the Amapa tailings ore, KDNC has to do a SCOPING STUDY and pay $6m. Then comes the RE-COMMISSIONING of Amapa which will take 18-24 MONTHS.

Again, KDNC was SAVED BY THE IRON ORE PRICE OF $163/t instead of the forecast $60m. So, $200m minus $10m = $190m which should be able to cover the recommissioning of Amapa initially thought to cost some $110m+.

Then, every year KDNC get $21m [or $28m] from recall of Alan Green*s recent interview on Amapa. Amapa has a MINE LIFE OF 14 YEARS. The project value is some $600m.
If KDNC HAS A 27% SHARE OF AMAPA AFTER THE SCOPING STUDY, IT COULD EQUATE TO $162M [27% X $600M].

However, if one works out the project life, then KDNC could get $21m x 14ys= $294m ONLY IF THE IRON ORE PRICE HOLDS UP at the projected price. One has to RE-WORK if the iron ore price is X or Y ACCORDINGLY.

YANGIBNA
30% JV in Part 2. Again, a legacy project in rare earth which is one of the commodities in demand?.

LITHIUM AUSTRALIA
This could be the cream given its metrics of LOW CAPEX, near infrastructure to Asia and IRR of 80% and payback 1.5 years. Lithium could be in demand if the projection holds for EV*s etc.
However, one notes that to get 100% share from 49%, it is loaded to the end side.
For this reason, I think that if the style of investing holds, then KDNC may also not take up its stake in Amapa to 49% as it would be too exposed to JUST 1 PROJECT IN IRON ORE as REM did not take up its share of the last 19% which was too expensive.

So, just notes for the future. From what Mr Mozaria said he is cognisant of all these dynamics of the market place.

News, Fri, 26 Feb 2021.
This ends the convo on KDNC and its projects. As said, if the lithium price did not fall off the cliff, then KDNC would be in a much better position and better still, if the takeover had succeeded which is what was envisaged?

One of the most impressive interviews I have heard.
Why? To invest in commodities, one has to know the exact DEMAND & SUPPLY SIDE in great detail.

I was aware that demand for iron ore comes from China and prices have been good. However, the Chinese used the iron ore to build 40-storey apartments. I did wonder about demand in the future? Our Founder also tweeted an article from an Australia source about the price of iron ore and the projection/prices and timing.

Mr Mozaria, CEO of Cadence Minerals today answered this question in detail and he confirmed that the Chinese stimulus of $1tn had been used for infrastructure and that in the future, it will be more manufacturing that will use iron ore-steel.

He gave the date for which iron ore price should be good & the deficit. He also said that Europe may issue stimulus to spend on infrastructure and that Europe could be the 2nd largest lithium centre after China.

In particular, he pointed out that the 2008 commodity supercycle and this one IS NOT THE SAME. Certain commodities are needed eg lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and rare earth.

In 2018, there was a lithium OVERSUPPLY and those with HIGH COSTS WENT UNDER especially hard rock. Bacanora and EMH have LOW CAPITAL requirements and now they also have partners and funding. He pointed out that KDNC*S HOLDING OF EMH HAD GONE FROM $3M TO $13-14M {I POINTED THIS OUT IN MY EARLIER POST ABOUT ABLE TO HOLD THE INVESTMENTS].
If I copied correctly, then the deficit for lithium will be 2023 & 2025.

LITHIUM AUSTRALIA -KDNC
24%
Mr Mozaria talked of the increase in spodumene prices.
KDNC*S LICENCE IS "RIGHT NEXT TO CORE [NEXT HARD ROCK PRODUCER], PROXIMATE AND SIMILAR GEOLOGY. Interesting."

Core Lithium*s FINNIS LITHIUM PROJECT HAS AN IRR OF 80%, UNHEARD OF IN TERMS OF GENERAL %. Payback is about 1.5 years. As I pointed out, it is the LOWEST COST PRODUCER AND HIGHEST GRADE IN AUSTRALIA.

From the interview, I feel that Mr Mozaria in giving the timeline for Amapa iron ore is cognisant of the hedging in lithium for which there appears to be demand.

All industry news and one in which shareholders cannot say in the future they did not know. As our Founder said a day ago, "you snooze, you lose." Very poignant as he was talking about another project in nickel. What Mr Mozaria said can CHANGE as NEW INDUSTRY NEWS COMES IN and hence why the need to continue to monitor both macro and mico. Mr Mozaria filled my knowledge gap in iron ore which would have taken me some time to locate the demand-supply model etc.

News, Fri, 26 Feb 2021
The interview has been posted on Twitter, Cadence Minerals site at https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals

AMAPA IRON ORE
He went thru the dates again and mentioned about FINAL SETTLEMENT.

Mkt just closed at 4.30pm.
Just secs before the close XTR was 6.7p to sell and 7p to buy [Advertised, NOT live]/
Dummy live price: 6.9p to sell and 6.91p to buy [extremely narrow margin].
Thur, 25 Feb 2021 @4:32pm. [Post RNS: Director buy ie Colin Bird, Executive Chairman]

demark
No. But on Twitter, Pete the Panda [European investor] said that the Sharetalk interview suggested that assays are next week? Kindly check on Twitter under #xtr.
I heard Mr Colin Bird mention assays are not far off now but I did NOT catch any further comment?

Thur, 25 Feb 2021.