Member Info for news

L2analyst
Whilst we are here ie shareholders on this forum, could you elucidate whatever you want to about what you said yesterday ie you bought XTR on CFD. One presumes that one can only do so at IG? If so, has the recent margin event affecting stocks in general? Also, with CFD, there is a spread. Any info as one can always learn more. Thanks. If you are not keen to share in general, its ok.

When one types up the above article onto to Twitter, thanks to Lucky250 and attribution given, the article comes up.

I have now SEEN what the preamble said: "WE*VE PASSED IS IT BIG OR ISNT IT BIG - ITS BIG."
Quote from Mining Journal preamble on the outside of Mining-Journals link. See it on Twitter #xtr.

-----
My view:
NO ONE has been able to read the full article which came out some 5 hrs ago today.
No one seems to have a subscription unfortunately. However, this means that from the able external preamble seen from Mining Journal that phrase ie big can only have come from COLIN BIRD, EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, XTR either from the last interview or Mining Journal has contacted Mr Bird to ask for further details or to confirm what he said to ShareTalk on this Tues as is norm in such cases?

MARKET IS NOT YET PREPARED FOR MORE MEDIA COVERAGE THAT COULD [imperative could] follow from this Mining Journal article which is well respected. I was rather surprised at last night*s comments. From what I understand, Mr Jeremy Read, Director of XTR was formerly Head of Exploration, BHP Australia-Africa. This is not a small post given BHP is the LARGEST MAJOR by mkt cap. Also, Corbetts Menzies is well known as a mining consultancy now that Doug Menzies, copper expert at Lachlan Fold, NSW, Australia is also on board to do the modelling etc with Mr Read. I did wonder how folks could ..... Oh well, that*s life?

To see historic A holes, go to the Australian mining dept and get out all the drill results if so desired. If one*s investment in XTR is big enough eg Sprotts, one can even go to inspect the cores and do a site visit -Middlekoop from the Discovery Fund does so.

One can even speak to management etc, so if the investment is of sufficient size, by all means ...

Forgot to type COPPER SPOT + IE GREEN IE UP.

"COPPER Futs
$ 4 . 1 4 2 -1.89%"
Daily FX
https://www.dailyfx.com/copper-prices
-----
Copper spot
$9, 266 +
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price

Racecourse Scoping Study:
Copper 0.2% cu CUT-OFF=ECONOMIC if copper is US$7,500
Copper 0.15% cu cut-off=economic if copper is US$10,000

Thur, 4 Mar 2021 @11:05

If history repeats like at Havieron, then other Australian newspaper may take the Mining Journal story on XTR further.

For Havieron, the story was published in THE AUSTRALIAN, per DL, it their biggest newspaper in Australia.

If so, HOPING ANYWAY, then many Australians could get to know. It may also be taken up by the Australian Financial Review?

Let*s hope so as that would be marvellous.

4 Mar 2021 [Thur]

SOME OF US THANKED MR COLIN BIRD, EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, XTR RACECOURSE-BUSHRANGERS YESTERDAY - today XTR is in lights in so far as thos who take the Mining Journal from the mining industry.

Thank you Lucky250. Rec.

"THE OZ DISCOVERY THAT*S GOT THE LONDON MARKET EXCITED."- MINING JOURNAL, Thur 4 Mar 2021.

ITS ABOUT US, XTR!!!

"Shares on London listed Xtract Resources have risen by nearly 350% since mid-January on excitement around its Bushranger project in New South Wales*s Lachlan Fold."
"The co, started drilling in mid-Dec and after a short break for Xmas, XTR announced on Jan 12 that "SIGNIFICANT MINERALISATION" had been intersected in the first hole from..."
------------
My view:
Big media INDUSTRY exposure. Most co*s in the industry could be taking Mining Journal.
The rest is via subs -anyone here got the rest of the story. Thanks. Pleased that I tweeted Mining Journal and others and they have taken up with the story after checks as norm.

News, Thur, 4 Mar 2021.

Wakey, Wakey.
Market has just MARKED up to sell and to buy.
Here we go again.

For once in a long time, I have observed that the market is finding it difficult.
How so? From Alpala, Havieron etc, the market would be or could be now in volatilty as traders exited and re-enter or enter?

This is not happening at the MOMENT as the market is finding it difficult to obtain loads of shares as everyone is holding on for news etc.?? I dont use L2 so that is just an observation without data.

One waits to see what the market will do next?

Just a bit of history inputting here, nothing more as one waits for HOLE 5 of Racecourse due next week per Mr Bird*s interview [latest]? Kindly check.

News, Thur, 4 Mar 2021.

As for this model or plan map folks want, I note that it is ALREADY AVAILABLE via past RNS. There were 3 links given - one had it in like a satellite model and coloured in GREEN as to where ALL THE RACECOURSE HOLES WERE.

Even with the model, one cannot 100% say Racecourse has definately X or Y until MRE - that is the game here ie to be able to spot as accurately as possible. Mr Bird said in his latest interview: PAST BIG, HOW BIG. Experts dont need an MRE - Havieron -Sprott could produce a SENSITIVITY MODEL which came out largely spot on via 3 scenarios.

DYOR. Thur, 4 Mar 2021.

P.S.

I have been to the London South East forum of this iron ore listed co with a mkt cap of £2.03 Billion to check THE P/E.

The P/E is 6.59 with a yield of 2.354% via a dividend.

P/E of 6.59 is very low compared to some co*s with P/E 10 say.

Given the HIGH PRICE OF IRON ORE of some $174 per tonne for 62% Fe iron ore and higher for 65%, this co*s data shows very much higher financial figures but even then, the MARKET is giving a much lower CONSERVATIVE P/E.

Why? I can only think that the market is cautious when it comes to iron ore and that the price have to been SOMEWHAT ironed out rather than take high figures or else the P/E could be 9 at least.

I havent checked other listed iron ore co*s as there are few pure iron ore co*s outside the majors.

There is a pure iron ore listed co in London. I wont mention the name as one is not supposed to mention the actual name of another co.

Here*s the data:
Share price £3.52
Mkt Cap £2.03 BILLION
2020 NET SALES: $1.604 Billion [2021-$1,813]
EBITDA $735million [2020] and $814 million [2021]
Pretax profit [EBT] $669million in 2020 and $814million in 2021.
N E T INCOME $540 MILLION IN 2020 AND $820 MILLION IN 2021.

Net margin: 34.2% and 45.2%. [Source: Market screener]
----------
So, the above shows that this co owns their own mine and to get to a mkt cap of £2.03 BILLION CURRENTLY, 3 Mar 2021, the co has to have the above earnings and net income etc.

One can use the above figures to see how much a £1.4 billion mkt cap has to earn just as an example by taking a proportion of simple school maths ie If a £2.03 Billion mkt cap has a net income of $540million in 2020 or $820 million in 2021, how much will a co with a mkt cap of £1.4 billion mkt cap have to have in net income to GET AN IDEA ONLY as to how much a co must earn.

I looked it up some time ago as to the tonnage and this co is doing far more.

So, that is the example.

IF ONE CAN SEE THE NET INCOME AS % OF THE ABOVE IE INTO 3 FIGURE HIGH MILLIONS, THEN YEAH, OK.

So, I now rest my case and peace out.

Certainly, I know how much bread cost LoL to provide an anology and the cost. Hence, I have looked up one producer listed on the London Stock Exchange.

However, kindly check and DO DUE DILIGENCE.

Wed, 3 Mar 2021.

This ends the convo.

contd
equals US$200 or £142 million!!!

Zamin paid US$240/50 million for 100% of Amapa when the valuation was either US$600m or US$400m I am not sure? I have not been able to ascertain the value at the time Zamin bought Amapa and the valuation then.

So, if KDNC were to sell their 20% share, it may or may NOT fetch US$200m or £142m [FX 1.4]. Why? There appears to be a discount to the valuation when Zamin bought Amapa and that is due to the port accident.

So, for some reason, the value of Amapa today, 3 Mar 2021 is US$600m and not the higher figure of early years prior to the port accident.

Anyhow, that is immaterial now as its history but suffice to say, it does show that the situation at Amapa is one in which it is right of KDNC to take a new valuation and to model it conservatively as per the official KDNC RNS.

Once the shipping of the iron ore starts and the money is BANKED, then comes the SCOPING STUDY and recommissioning which will take another 18-24mths after 18mths of shipping the stockpile.

So, only AT THE END OF 3.5 YEARS MORE can one then see the way ahead and FIRST REVENUES once the AMAPA MINE HAS BEEN ACTUALLY RECOMMISSIONED.

All this is therefore conjecture as KDNC is NOT AT THIS STAGE YET. Meanwhile, the market will not re-rate until there is shipping and then a re-commissioned mine. Kiran Mozaria did say that the share price ....think he meant an upward movement from what I could make out. So, YES, that is potentially possible.

Mr Mozaria once had to go to the MM*s to try to get them to value the JV*s from what I gather? I only heard this from the KDNC forum at the time. However, the market only valued KDNC on MARK-TO-MARKET ie the ACTUAL EMH AND BCN SHARE PRICE per the % KDNC owned. So, even at this stage, the market is giving MORE than mark-to-market for EMH % holding and 1% of Macarthur Minerals.

So, given this high £10 and beyond figure I heard on the main forum expounded by one eminent poster and further from Twitter, I thought its best to ASK HOW?

IN SHORT, I HAVE NOT TAKEN OUT MY MONEY TO PUT IN KDNC like some folks did in the days of REM and to which they lost 90% of it all because such HIGH SP FORECASTS have been expounded.

This should be openly discussed, more so, as FORMER REM*ers want to get back their capital and maybe a bit for the time they held REM, that*s fine. However, if they want to hold for the £10 expounded by an eminent poster [old-timer], then that is fine AS LONG AS THEY ARE AWARE IT IS PRACTICALLY OUT OF THIS WORLD - KDNC WOULD HAVE TO HAVE AN INCOME TO GET A £1.4 BILLION MKT CAP ie in the 3 figure MILLIONS.

So, that is the long and short of this story.

I have not appreciated the comment today on this forum that I do not know what EBIDTA is - that was pretty out of character. I am not the type to say this and that about myself but certainly that was pretty not nice to say the least.

So, I would like to express my say on the last part as above.

Ford12833
I must say I enjoyed your post as it summaries the past, current and the short term future.
Yes, today, KDNC is 19p and to £10 is a long way.

At 19p, the KDNC mkt cap is £28.37 million and at £10, it is close to £1.493 billion.
Given this is for Amapa iron ore project say, KDNC does NOT OWN 100% of the project. The JV with Sino means the JV owns some 99%. KDNC will or could own 20%, 27% and 49%. One does not know under what circumstances ie $$$ is needed to get to 49%.

So, from official RNS and Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC in the most recent interview, he did not give out new revised figures so those stand from the KDNC RNS which I have quoted from. In fact, Mr Mozaria mentioned Amapa $600m - I take this to be the latest valuation as Mr Alan Green stated that a new valuation had been done.

I very rarely comment on figures and if I feel that they are too high I keep quiet.

However, in this case of KDNC, there is the history of REM plc wherein, at the height of the share price at 2.25p, Mkt Cap of £95m folks bought in after it fell to 0.9p. I checked the posting history of one poster who said he bought to see what price it was in the days of REM plc.

The Founder said at this party which I did not attend that REM could go to 5p - I cannot verify as I was not there but I am just giving this example. Well, one can see that EMH or BCN which owns Sonora has now a MKT CAP of £140m +, give and take BEFORE DFS [EMH] and BCN, BEFORE PRODUCTION. So, yeah, £95m x 2= £190m [2.25+2.25p = 5p] is within that sort of range given London listed lithium co*s are not mkt capped as high as Australia and sometimes Canada. So, for folks that bought at 0.9p, the MKT CAP need not be so demanding as the one or two who bought at 2.25p.

OK, as I said, once the TAKEOVER FELL THROUGH, REM could NOT own Sonora 100% but only had 30% of the 2nd stage in the JV. Morally speaking, if REM financed all the initial drilling, I think its fair if REM got some return?

Fast forward, the Founder appointed a metal trader on the board to take his place as Chairman. This new Chairman brought in Amapa. In a recent tweet, the Founder of REM did express that KDNC could get back to the old mkt cap. That is good if it happens as everyone can then recover their capital.

So, I am pleased about that - that is good of the Founder and current board of KDNC.

So, getting rich was NOT promised at all from what I have seen on Twitter or from the RNS?

Just imagine, when I read on the main KDNC forum that KDNC could go to at LEAST £10, I nearly fell OFF MY CHAIR. This effectively means that if one bought KDNC today at 19p, one would pay about £190 plus commission and take in a bit more for the spread. SO, 1000 SHARES AT 19P PLUS COMMISSION MAKES IT SAY £200, THE RETURN ON A SHARE PRICE OF £10 FOR KDNC WILL COME TO £10,000!!!! Anyone would have fainted at that given KDNC DOES NOT OWN 100% OF AMAPA.

Say 20% of Amapa at US$600M value [K.Mozaria*s figur

So, from Yahoo, the result is that the 95% guarantee by HMG relating to mortgages will save jobs in DIY, estate agencies etc.

Meanwhile, today, Wed 3 Feb 2021, the share price of Lloyds has risen and closed at some 40.26p from a dummy quote.

Nice that it broke 40p and my own estimation was a bit out at 40.5p - just didnt make the final 0.24p LoL.

However, from here, I dont know at the moment.

News, Wed 3 Mar 2021.

Guys,
I have just got my wifi filled.

EyeGuy
Observer842

Let*s all call it a day. It is tiring for everyone. Suffice to say, if the real figures for Amapa come in at X or Y per one*s expectations, then, fine.

Lets CANCEL all the CALCULATIONS AS FROM THIS DATE, Wed 3 Mar 2021.

KDNC has given the OFFICIAL MODEL and we go with that for Joe Public investing. If they think that the iron ore prices are going to be sky high like today at $174 per tonne, that*s up to them into the whole of the mine life which in total will be something like 17.5 years from now.

Fair enough?

All peace now.

News, Wed 3 Mar 2021.

Teip
The 1st 3 holes of Racecourse have been RNS*ed.
The 4th hole has been finished with the latest RNS & 2 interviews.
Now, it is onto the 3rd hole and when that is finished, there will be an RNS as usual per what Mr Colin Bird said in his 2 interviews yesterday.

The 3rd hole per Mr Bird from his interviews is to test the WIDTH as the STRIKE has always been known at 1,000m. The depth is 1,000m per Mr Bird in his interview yesterday. Mr Bird also gave the width at 1,000m. This is a rough dimension as some will vary a bit here and there if one looks at any co*s final model.

----
You have asked for an updated model? Usually, even for Greatland [John Cornford mentioned XTR and where Greatlanders have gone in his article], there was NO updated MODEL in so far as after 9 holes at Havieron, the co issues a TONNAGE figure. However, it would appear that Newcrest could run more professional evaluation/s as well as the industry as Gervaise Heddle said they rang him.

Hence, in the very early days, even BEFORE HOLE 1 COULD FINISH at Racecourse, some ran their own cals and by far, the results thus far from the 4 Holes at Racecourse doesnt appear to meet with models with NO results.

This is where we are at. So, as Mr Bird said, they are going to prepare the UPDATED MODEL with INPUT FROM GRADES and that has to wait for ASSAYS.

The type of modelling or map to give ACTUAL TONNAGE is not possible until the grades via assays are released.

So, for now, it is up to each one to evaluate their own models. Usually, the professional geologists and economic geos from funds have a lot of models to compare with especially from the Lachlan Fold and therefore even then, it is for private calculation.

Hence, once the later results are known, then accordingly the market will play catch up.

For seasoned investors like the fund that has invested, they may also do some of their own models or get someone that is a specialist to run it.

In the meantime, as Mr John Cronford of Masterinvestors appears to be saying is that the data will come in.

Hope that helps to give an idea of what every exploration play appears to be about as in Havieron and Alpala and Porvenir and so forth.

DYOR.

News 3 Mar 2021. [Wed]

Eyeguy
That*s better. You now say that iron ore price for 62% fe is for the stockpiles.
62% fe is around US$174 or so. Stockpile was supposed to be shipped out in the next 12 mths but the latest maybe 18 months from recall but check.

THAT IS OK - just for the stockpiles. No problem with that. ON THE SAME SHEET THEN.
However, I caveat that with IF the iron ore price holds as always.
----------
observer842
OK, eyeguy has now come to being conservative ie the price of 62% iron ore at $174 or so per tonne rather than take everything at 65% fe at $200 per tonne.

So, peace out. All is well.

Hope for the best now ie the iron ore is shipped out when the agreement is finalised and no need for KDNC to go back to Court to enforce or rather if folks dont allow shipping, it could be contempt of court ie when a court makes a judgement and it is not followed by the other side, it is that. Appeal to the Supreme Court and Minister has been denied or that is what I read which is in Spanish ? Check anyway as translations into English may NOT BE CORRECT. ALWAYS, WAIT FOR THE RNS - THAT IS OFFICIAL.

Thanks all.

News, 3.3.21

observer82

It is not wrong to use a hypothesis WITHOUT doing DETAILED CALCULATIONS of 2x rather than 3x.

No one at this stage knows if the cost is fixed.

Check with KIRAN MOZARIA AND IF HE AGREES, THEN COME BACK TO ME WITH THE EMAIL.

Over and out.

Yes, EBITDA is Earnings BEFORE TAX, dep and amortization.

Revenue is sales.

Revenue minus cost etc = Gross Profit in the old days known as.

So, I never said revenue is EBITDA.

How does a hypothesis become an issue that needs correcting?

Double is better than TRIPLE for conservative figures. I believe that fe 62% and fe 65% is a matter of more refining or that is my perception.

So, just taking a straight line 2x rather than splits and making it 3x, how can that be wrong?

Obs, lets just leave it.

Eyeguy wants to insist and I was trying to put a bit of sense into his figures because iron ore is NOT GOING TO BE US$200 PER TON GOING INTO THE NEXT 18 MONTHS OR NEXT 3.5 YEARS OR 14 YEARS INTO THE WHOLE LIFE OF MINE.

Its just simply WRONG to do so and that was all I was telling EYE-GUY.

HYPOTHESIS it is called to illustrate ie for me to illustrate to Eyeguy that it will not be according to conventional analysis to extrapolate US$61/t from KDNC MODELLING INTO US$200 per tonne iron ore price currently [I only see US$174 or so per tonne] into the NEXT 3.5 YEARS AND INTO 14 YEARS IS JUST SIMPLY WRONG and will cause a LOT OF PROBLEMS if people sink their savings on those types of figures.

A recession hits and there will be a hit to iron ore prices as it is sensitive to the economy.

How can ANYONE SAY THERE WONT BE A RECESSION IN THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS ie Amapa life span + stockpile period, scoping study and re-commissioning.

OK, that*s all. I have made my point.

I am sure you know what happens if we go to and fro.

I AM KEEPING MY LONDON SOUTH EAST MEMBERSHIP so I will not go to and fro.

IF AND WHEN KDNC ISSUES AN RNS TO SAY THAT THEY CAN GUARANTEE IRON ORE PRICES INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS IE LIFE OF AMAPA, THEN I WILL TAKE NOTE, otherwise, I go with what KDNC has put out in the RNS, official regulatory news.

I KNOW FOR A FACT, KDNC CANNOT ISSUE THAT TYPE OF RNS AS THE ADVISOR WILL NOT ALLOW IT IE IT IS FORWARD GUIDANCE.

THEREFORE, EYE-GUY*S $200/t into the foreseeable future is WRONG? This is NOT OFFICIAL that iron ore prices that are at the height is EXTRAPOLATED INTO THE FUTURE??

So, ok, that*s all.

I PLAY FOR SAFETY and BEING CONSERVATIVE - THAT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO AS IT IS FROM KDNC RNS AND CEO OF KDNC.

I am not going to be convinced of wild figures INTO THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS. Fair enough?

If the KDNC SAYS SO, THEN EVERYONE IE SHAREHOLDERS WILL TAKE NOTE - NO CO HAS EVER DONE THAT AND HENCE WHY THERE IS NO KDNC RNS TO SAY SO.

@observer842

Yes, I have now seen your answer on Mon 14:38 - I said I wasnt going to reply anymore on this forum as there is no point with Eyeguy*s figure of $200/t seaborne iron ore price.

I see you agree with my iron ore price at the moment of US$174/t and NOT $200/t per eyeguy.

As for the BREAKDOWN to show me that it is 3x rather than 2x, well, of course I have NOT taken the stockpile etc at their different figures. After all, it is hypothesis, and UNDER-CUT OF FIGURES that I showed of 2x is better than 3x.

My private thoughts are: Zamin was a metal specialist and his fortune got affected, lets put it mildly so after this lesson, I am fully awake to iron ore prices lets say.

OK, my wifi is running out so I have to get topped up.

Sorry, for no replies.

NO POINT GOING TO AND FRO.

PUT THOSE FIGURES OF TELEPHONE NUMBERS TO KDNC - Eyeguy etc and IF THEY FORMALLY AGREE THEY WILL PUT IT IN AN RNS. THEN I WILL TAKE NOTE. Otherwise, all these back of envelope figures is no GOOD, to EXTRAPOLATE HIGH IRON ORE PRICES FOR THE NEXT 17.5 YEARS.

News, Wed 3 Mar 2021.