Member Info for NewKOTB

Interesting that Ithaca have $1,650M Reserves Based Lending (RBL) maturing June 2024 of which ~$500m outstanding, that I guess could be re-negotiated and with leverage ratio at 1.4x Ithaca could easily pull off a mega-deal ..... regardless of what is announced in public, inc Mr Crawford said it won’t involve a “big cash outflow”, suppose it all depends if you class the cash from CoH or RBL or IPO !

Either way it looks likely another NS asset is soon to be swallowed up.... and not by us !

aimo

SDX have to constantly drill, 11 drills in latest round .... Should they >40p, if they ever do, I'm out ...SDX have morphed into too much of a life-style company with PDMR and LTIP imo.

Don't want to be caught-out again so watching SQZ closely atm.

Clean exit for cash, ideally being in excess of >200p/s in next month or so will do fine for SQZ.

aimo.

legache,

Seems odd. Lots of posting from one or two people who don't hold SQZ.

Still not back in yet .... how SDX going btw !

Just saying.

atb

Upomega,

Allalogie is a sleeper account, woken for the first time in 13 years for a reason .... imo that reason is to condition holders that SQZ is worth a lot less than we all know it is ... SQZ are now firmly in the crosshairs.

atb & aimo

"So what will be the situation at the end of December. ?....

Allalogie, situation will be, you are long gone.

If you really want to know my thoughts you just need to read my posting history.

NB : Fair value ~280p

aimo

LOL Allalogie ...

You have been a member for 13 years, yet this is your very first post ..... say no more !!!

I forget my login after a week's holiday, never mind having 13 years ... a sleeper account for sure.

Looking forward to your gems of wisdom.

ps No way will 170p be in any form acceptable for a t/o figure ....

atb

HBLU,

As for knowing what NED's do, officially and unofficially, I'm fully aware thank you !

So, is Kate there for a free lunch, free dinner or both maybe, I hope not... !

Given Kate's skill set, I don't think she is just a nodding NED, more likely 'assisting' with business development and given her commercial experience in M&A's activity, in effect acting as a 'cheap advisory specialist consultant'.

Maybe as our NED, Kate, in her role on the audit committee could always ask why we don't have a CFO on our board anymore and have failed to do so for 6 years since Chris left !

Chillax all, it's a BH weekend, enjoy the sun.

atb & imo

flexmw,

Well said my friend ..... esp reference to share holder alignment.

I mentioned before what has Kiosk Kate's achievement been since joining ( for whom I had high hopes for btw ) and questioning why Kate joined our board .... free lunch maybe ! Well, with latest LTIP it appears more and more that SQZ is slowing turning into a lifestyle 'free lunch' and 'retirement' company with diminishing consideration for the owners .... us as shareholders. Hoards of cash that is now, imo starting to have a drag on the SP as SQZ are incapable of making it work for us .... so it must be distributed and no way on earth be used for a share buyback scheme. As for AA, love him or hate him, you can not deny he has skin in the game with KIST. I would run naked around the garden ( which would not be fair on the local wildlife either) should we have an RNS confirming key board members have purchased shares out of their own pocket .... and I'm not talking a 'goodwill gesture' amount either. As for the holding of ACW, I believe it to be the vast majority of the Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings of 8,194,580 shares (did have numbers once) ... of course this does not include the yet to be awarded and numerous LTIP and associated schemes going back years.

ACW et al, us natives are getting restless, we need significant SP progress or our cash, don't let us down now !

aimo &| dyor

The AGM is to be held on Thursday, 24 June 2021 at 1:00p.m. at the offices of Peel Hunt LLP, 100 Liverpool Street, London, EC2M 2AT.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/notice-of-annual-general-meeting-w3cudm6nnwhdvph.html

"Royal dutch ordered to cut emissions by 45% by 2030..."

Don't know the details, but I guess this will accelerate their hydrocarbon up-stream division sell-off ( quick 'n' easy method to reach target) .... so more fields up for sale which will give greater options for buyers, thus making farm-in's potentially more challenging, whilst RDS move more in renewable, akin to BP. aimo

Muckle,

Bit of a catch all statement by myself ..... you are correct but my point still stands.

atb

upomega,

Wouldn't race to buy tomorrow ... who knows, maybe their hand is about to be shown, although not before PI's are hung out to dry, could be a few more weeks of BoT madness ahead of us first.

aimo.

"This is Rockrose sp prior to the takeover levels of oddness...." Yep, indeed so.

Strange how no other NS player had ~5% taken off their Mcap today .....

Well, if you were a BoT, drop the SP on a handful of quickfire minor trades in closing 90 seconds before the bell.

Horrendous close on UT, dropped us out of rising channel it's been flirting with for past few sessions. Looking like the squeeze is on ..... to Shake, Rattle and Roll Over weak holders and margin calls imo.... Top-up at the ready, once more !

atb & dyor

raxfactor,

Don't worry, even with 'rebel' holders, there is no way on earth will +30% premium (~150p) get past the vote, let alone the backing of our BoD.... It's 'Easy Street' atm for them with plenty of LTIP to 'earn' ! ... lol

Once Jan 2022 is upon us, our SP 'should' of or be well into the throws of re-rating ... I'm guessing we 'should' settle around 170-200p/s early H1 2022 .... therefore, opening gambit for discussion with our BoD atm for t/o should commence in excess >200p/s imo.

Quick and very simplistic view on our present value, with our current est ~58mmboe reserves @ £12/$17 barrel, plus cash ~£100m, would give us a valuation of ~£800m or 298p/s

There is of course added hidden value in that we are operator with very limited decom liabilities and assets are centralised with further add-in potential of Eigg and Licence P2506 for easy tieback to Bruce too that could extend COP well beyond 2030.

So for me, an offer would need to be ~220p/s way below my estimate of 298p/s fair value, but given the growing macro headwinds I would have though many holders would take such an offer atm.

Alternatively, should or BoD choose to do nothing other than build our cash ... then that cash needs to be distributed. As I have mentioned before, with a min of 25p/s PA (£67m) Special Dividend. Would loathe a share buyback as there is usually no gain in terms of SP appreciation and signals to the market that we have failed to add value esp when there are highly visible NS M&A happening almost monthly atm.

aimo & dyor

clinch,

"Whilst the numbers look really good for Jan 22 I’m holding for a t/o....." Likewise... :-)

So, what are we now looking at given we are 7 months away from 100% BKR and +ve news on both Columbus and R3 will be expected come end of June.

Fair value has significantly move up a notch ... imo, we should now be looking towards 275-290p/s.

One would hope June news on Columbus and R3 will be the catalyst for a re-rate, even if its 'minor' whilst waiting for H1 interim's come September ( which will be interesting imo) and moving ever closer to that magical pot of gold in Jan 2022.

Deals take time, even after an agreement, so once again, I'm sticking to my view that all is waiting on R3 flow testing.

Let the games begin ! ( even though, imo they have been for a long, long time now)

PS At ~280p/s, I would be happy for a natural re-rate but getting there under our own steam my prove a fruitless task, hence my option for a clean t/o.

aimo.

Using POO $67/barrel , Gas 60p/therm, hedging of 25% gas for Q1 2022 in 20/80 split with $1.41/£ on very conservative production over 335 days, UNIT revenue $39boe post Opex ($12.60/barrel) :

At 35kboepd US$1,365,188
335 days 35k US$457,337,846

So, estimated revenue for 2022 extrapolated over the year would see revenue (less opex) of circa £323m vs current Mcap of £312m. Clearly massive wriggle room in these figures, but it does show that SQZ is worth far more than 117p/s it's sat atm

In 2019 we managed £109m profit before tax ... when we only had 50% of BKR, no R3 or Columbus !

When you add in NO Debt, tax losses of ~£42m, very limited decomms, reserves of 61mmboe, CoH ~£100m it all adds to the extremely strong investment case... yet our SP fails to gain any sort of traction for almost 3 years, why ?.... Answers on a postcard please.

aimo

Also, looking like gap at 5.078 about to close .... lol

With new gap at 6.338p ...lol once more.