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Sector headwinds are continually growing stronger .... SQZ need to sell now, otherwise the sector discount will only get greater and more difficult to navigate an exit .... R3 flowing and sell .... >200p for opening gambit imo

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that no new fossil fuel boilers should be sold from 2025 if the world is to achieve net-zero emissions by the middle of this century.
It's one of 400 steps on the road to net-zero proposed by the agency in a special report.
The sale of new petrol and diesel cars around the world would end by 2035.
The IEA says that from now, there is no place for new coal, oil or gas exploration or supplies."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149059

If no sale, then milk the fields dry and return all cash to SH via regular special dividends.... and I'm talking dividends of >25p/s pa.

aimo

First time I've read about BP wanting to unload their Vorlich project too.

"BP also wants to sell the Andrew field and the Vorlich project, but Tailwind's interest reportedly is limited to Shearwater...."

"The Vorlich oil field development project is located within the Greater Stella Area (GSA) in Central North Sea, UK. Discovered in 2014, the field spans across the BP-operated Block 30/1c (Upper) and the Ithaca Energy-operated Block 30/1f in Central North Sea. The £200m ($252m) project is part of BP’s program to develop satellite fields through existing hubs. It is expected to produce 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil-equivalent at peak."

Tailwind are backed by PE and should also be considered as potentially hostile, something I have expressed before esp as they have 25% of Columbus too.

aimo

I also understand that in the case of a t/o an application is made by the acquiror to make an acquisition on these and other rights held under the LTIP Share Option subject to satisfying the exercise of options price... so that would be ~236p, as mentioned, not too difficult a target..... ;-)

aimo

Change in holding ..... NB figures in brackets previous holding.

AXA Framlington Investment Managers 32,572,241 12.15% (11.99%)
GRG UK Oil LLC 29,154,183 10.89% (10.88%)
Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,192,660 10.52% (10.60%)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 19,047,234 7.10% (7.08%)
BP Exploration Operating Company 13,500,000 5.04% (unchanged)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 10,926,213 4.08% (4.04%)
BlackRock 10,630,087 3.97% (3.93%)
Polar Capital 10,462,369 3.90% (unchanged)
Janus Henderson Investors 10,111,767 3.77% (3.82%)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 8,194,580 3.06% (unchanged)

As at 13 May 2021, the Company had 268,089,331 ordinary shares in issue of which 36.60% is not held in public hands.

"The vesting criteria are based on absolute share price performance over a three-year period and specific performance targets related to carbon emissions from operations over the same period. For the awards to vest in full, a 100% increase in average share price must be maintained for at least a six-month period together with a significant decrease in carbon emissions per barrel of oil equivalent produced...."

Only double our SP in 3 years ... should be an easy target.... x3, circa 360p, would have been more of a challenge imo.

SDX are a constant disappointment, as I know only too well. Morocco has so much untapped potential, hence I also hold position in CHAR, you should take a look at them if not done so already. .... as for " keeping my powder dry.." think you should re-consider imo, however if R3 proves too challenging, which btw I don't believe it will, then you may have a small window of opportunity. Still hold to my view that unless SQZ re-rates then we will be taken over, with R3 flowing it's nailed on imo.

PS. Unable to find source of the noise in the loft .... taken precautions just in case, as you do ..... ;-)

aimo & dyor

I'm fully expecting a tsunami of RNS's in the not too distant future .... ;-)

See Legache continuing with the subtle de-ramps, yet has failed to answer my earlier and quite material question as to where "there are better homes for my capital...", clearly there are none, hence still posting -ve comments here, wanting in at lower SP.

As FOMO, of course, as there's a real chance of not getting in sub 200p

Any temporary weakness will be bought into, as R3 is in effect and has never been, be-all and end-all for Rhum, or indeed SQZ.

Even without R3, SQZ will be looking to end 2021 with >32kboepd, >£135m CoH, no DEBT and significant tax losses with minimal decom liabilities. Either way, with or without R3, SQZ ( should it be around in Jan 2022), will be an absolute beast of a cash machine and our ~120p will be only a distant memory.

Off into the loft now ... as had strange noises late last-night emanating from there ..... !!!

aimo & dyor

Legache,

"so there are better homes for my capital......" Never fails to amaze me how none investors continually post -ve comments on a stock they don't hold.... That aside :

As for "The management are not dealmakers..." sorry, but BKR is the reason we are now an highly cash +ve and very profitable company with no debt and receivable from said deal set to increase +67% in little over 7 months for ZERO CapEx. So you are correct in "there aren't many better cash machines on AIM.."

ACW ground-breaking BKR deal with multiple companies shows SQZ are up to the task .... as for "huge over expectation amongst PIs of a buyout...", I think you should wait and see on that score.

The annual FPS has been known about for 12 months or more now, so I disagree any weakness being related to FPS .... only unexpected issues and shutdowns are what the markets don't like.

Also "this will end up being a very good divi payer...", think you will find it already is at ~3%pa

PS. Please let us know where you deploy your capital and the reasons why its better than SQZ, love to know.

aimo & dyor

You are still yet to buy back in I see legache..... lol

Our SP will continue to be tightly range bound until an offer comes in.

What happened to playing marbles and conkers
There's a new game they play now, and its called Go Bonkers !!

aimo & dyor.

Well, just around 12 months ago Brent hit $19/barrel and Nat Gas 8p/therm ..... today we have Brent toying with $70/barrel and Nat Gas >66p/therm .... that's approx 250% and 725% up on last year ... where as 12 months ago SQZ sat at ~107p today ~120p, that's a massive move of little over +10% vs commodities increase.... !

The only +ve I can draw from that is, even at the terrible lows of Brent/NBP 2020, SQZ were still able to make a profit ..... roll on H1 interim's .. other than that, SQZ share performance has been woeful to say the least.

aimo & dyor

Once again, no surprise really .... lol

atb

" what's happening on 17th May?.."

You can hug and get 'taken out' out for meal .... indoors, no more sitting in the freezing cold on the pavement whilst e-scooters go whizzing by your table. .. lol

muckle,

"you would think if a t/o was going to happen companies would've done their homework on serica and moved in when SP was in the 80p range..."

You would have thought .... although :

Firstly, BKR needed to be bedded in, staff 2P over and production efficiencies achieved etc etc.
Then the added complication of the licence for Rhum, WAS on a 12 month renewal ( subject to terms), SQZ have subsequently be able to extend this process considerably.
Also BP have to give the go ahead for the BKR sale if SQZ wanted to sell-on, so possible stumbling block.
Then you have the progressive PSA improvement from 40% to 100% over the 4 years. All about cashflow and ROI for potential acquirer, only need to wait another 7 months for full 100%.
Given our SP has remained static for almost 3 years due imo, to our not so friendly BoT, you could argue that SQZ given the uncertainties being removed, improved PSA, R3, Columbus and Eigg licences, is as good a value, if not better, than it was when sat at 80p/s .... still debt free and mountain of cash.

Herein lies the dilemma ..... Now, as we get closer to Jan 2022 the willingness to sell falls away sharply, conversely, so does the attractiveness of SQZ to an acquirer. You have to reach the sweet-spot for both buyer and seller, has to be something in it for both parties ( this is where Kiosk Kate needs to earn her crust) ... for me that sweet-spot, right now is R3 flowing and the opening gambit >200p/s.

As for others doing their homework on SQZ, I would say for sure they have.

Our SP has to re-rate, PERIOD or we will get 'taken out', come May 17th nothing holding them back (lol)!

aimo

muckle,

Columbus will be 3.5kboepd net to SQZ, 2020 average production 23.8kboepd was much lower than 2019, 30kboepd due to 45 day loss (caisson repairs) and field maintenance work. So I would like to think with a fair wind, (had enough of NS storms for a lifetime) that 2021 average production to-date would be closer to 28-29kboepd (ex R3 / Columbus)
Add in R3/Columbus and SQZ could end the year with ~40kboepd. That would for certain shows how mentally low our SP is atm.
As for "too late for a T.0..." it's never too late ! ;-)

aimo

I would say there are substantial amount of PI investors, HNWI and institutions with big money just waiting for +ve RNS before committing cash .... then there will be an almighty struggle to acquire shares without needing NT. That is assuming we don't get suspended on outright T/O in the first instance.

AIMO

"i thought we were near completion with Rhum3....." lol

Day 210/70 .....

Don't forget we have 3 week annual shutdown in a few weeks, deferred from 2020 to Forties pipeline, as such, I can not see Serica beginning R3 production, only to shut the well down again days later .... though I may be totally wrong.

https://www.ineos.com/businesses/ineos-fps/maintenance-remit/

aimo

legache,

"There has to be upside for the buyer....." , exactly, point I too have made several times and after Jan 2022, there is none !!

So now or never afaic for an approach.... as such > 200p/s is a good starting point..... Any sniff R3 flow rates any good and SQZ are history.

aimo & dyor

Don't forget, BT was driven down to stupidly low levels last year for a reason .... and reason !!!!

... Christmas is a Coming.

aimo

GB19,

"Where is it going though? Volumes are tiny...."

Exactly, I have made this point several times and is as true with this latest GRG RNS as previous ..... daily volumes do not match disposals for GRG .... So we have nothing more than an off-book share shift .... who to is the question and why ?

As for T/O, right now, minimum I would be looking for is fair value ~217p, with R3 flowing and stable we should be looking towards ~254p, add-in Columbus and 100% BKR, then you could easily make a case of ~300p .... but atm, being pinned to 120p it would be difficult for anyone to resist >200p as for 150p, don't think that would even be given a second of ACW et al time... unless they are drinking buddies down the 'Royally & Shafted'

aimo & dyor