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Not sure if we are in the right business or not, Brent ~$73/barrel, NatGas Fut >70p/therm... backwards we go !

If SQZ made glue it probably wouldn't stick, not to dissimilar to our R3 rise on Thursday, SP now whacked down on close, down on Friday too.

Even at a derisory 4kboepd net for R3, that would generate over 335 days for 2022 at $39 unit revenue, post Opex, ~$52m, majority of which, straight to bottom line or for H2 2021 ~$26m. Yet, once again, our SP is moving in the wrong direction, with very active BoT trading, particularly during PM once more.

Tiresome, very much so !

Oh well .... still have space in an ISA, although not that much. :-(

If we are not in talks atm or about to be approached, I would be absolutely astounded.

aimo & dyor

Using POO $67/barrel(~$72 atm) , Gas 60p/therm(69p atm), hedging of 25% gas for Q1 2022 in 20/80 split with $1.42/£ on very conservative production over 335 days, UNIT revenue $39boe post Opex $12.60/barrel(expected to fall sub $10/barrel) :

At est 40.5kboepd (net) US$1,590,691
335 days 40.5kboepd (net) US$532,881,472

So, estimated revenue for 2022 (less opex) of circa £375m vs current Mcap of £361m. Clearly massive wriggle room in these figures, but it does show that SQZ is worth far more than 134p/s it's sat atm

In 2019 we managed £109m profit before tax ... when we only had 50% of BKR, no R3 or Columbus !

When you add in NO Debt, tax losses of ~£42m, very limited decomms, reserves of 61mmboe, CoH ~£110m atm it all adds to the extremely strong investment case...

aimo

Only 3 so far ....

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:27:16 132.00 32,537 £42,948.84 O
17:16:30 133.50 100,000 £133,500.00 O
17:06:50 132.00 48,200 £63,624.00 O

Volume not massive by all accounts .... expected more tbh, so lets see what after hours reports.

Nice intra-day auction at just gone 4pm today too .. ;-)

Also fully expect TR-1 over coming days....

Great day, long awaited but rise was halted by technical resistance from June 2020 and Jan 2021 highs.

Need to push on and then break 'n' hold 142p at 4th attempt.

aimo & dyor

NONE ....

aimo & dyor

flex,

"If the gap does come back to be closed, that must be a great buying opportunity!.."

Indeed so, with quadruple witching next Friday, pre ExDiv, that maybe the last opportunity for sub 119p, however, they may not risk closing the gap, we shall see.

I will be looking to add ~25% to my holding if that is the case.

So glad on day 242/70 we have finally got the news we have all been waiting for ...just need DSV completion and R3 online, then say goodbye !

PS ACW et al, now the real work over the next few weeks to reward shareholders begins.

aimo & dyor

I would expect work on upgrading our Rhum reserves (~35mmboe) to be high priority and well underway given data recently obtained from R3...... all adds to the 'value' SQZ is able to demonstrate and hopefully extract for the final piece of the jigsaw ... ;-)

"with the potential to bring additional reserves into the commercial lifespan of the field.." ...... "The latest independent report of reserves, compiled by RISC Advisory, estimated 2P Rhum reserves of 35.1 million boe net to Serica as at 1 January 2021 (2020: 28.7 million boe)..."

PS. Will the gap be given time to close ? .... Not sure it will tbh .

aimo & dyor

"their stake is largely unimportant.."

Really ..... not when it's used in a vote.... ;-)

Our SP was absolutely decimated last year, we are now seeing the reason/s why, 12 months on !

Hold, buy and accumulate imo

PS Re-posted as LSE site is being a pain as usual atm

"their stake is largely unimportant.."

Really ..... not when it's used in a vote.... ;-)

Our SP was absolutely decimated last year, we are now seeing the reason/s why, 12 months on !

Hold, buy and accumulate imo

Once DSV work has been completed, we should be looking at a substantial increase in daily production ..... lets see if the market understands this ..... atm, with only a ~6% rise, I guess not.

PS managed to grab a handful on opening, hope others did too.

Lets see over the coming session/s if our BoT is able to close the opening gap.... for another and probably final massive top-up for me.

aimo & dyor

I know the saying is 'show on the road', but in SQZ's case, our SP has been a poor show for a long long time now, so much so it has become the norm ..... The SP's cat'n'mouse game could be coming to an end and a new game starting, fully expect limited fireworks with our SP. As Maverick mentioned yesterday, I too think we may well struggle to gain much traction above that resistance as our resident BoT will still be ever present .... What R3 has demonstrated, above all doubt (if there was ever any) is the truly amazing value SQZ has on offer for anyone who wants us .... so, let the games begin.... watching for those 10k trades today too.

PS Adding more if given half a chance.

Right, off to make tea and toast now ready for 8am.

aimo & dyor

Thank the Lord ..... whoopee, hallelujah etc etc ...

Right, let's get this game on the road. !!

atb

Thank the Lord ..... whoopee, hallelujah etc etc ...

Right, let's get this game on the road. !!

atb

BlackRock have recently taken, from nowhere, ~5% & ~4% positions in two companies I hold that look ripe for big gains ...

As I say, BlackRock are mean operators.... maybe not tomorrow, but for sure in the near future I would guess.

aim & dyor

BlackRock are mean operators .... they have put their nose in the trough and others will want to join them for sure.

Add and accumulate imo.

BlackRock, Inc. ...... hummm....!!!

Upomega,

Agree, we should look at farming out ~20% North Eigg, retain our position as operator and tie-back to Bruce would also benefit SQZ. No so much as for cash injection, more to ease any concerns about drilling .... something I have never been over confident about with SQZ tbh.

The question is, at what point do we look at farming out (pre or post exploration well), or is it more 'valuable' as a whole at this point in time, if you know what I mean !

That said, SQZ could easily go it alone, but given how conservative our BoD are, I would guess a farm-out would be on their minds too.

atb

aimo & dyor.

That size of trade doesn't go unnoticed, that's for sure .... and I don't mean by PI's.

By now the City will know who and more importantly, why this trade took place.

The fact the SP has continued to rise throughout the day is very encouraging.

aimo & dyor

I mentioned earlier that Mitch quoted our "“considerable unutilised debt capacity”..... which we know is also a highly strategic and major attraction for an acquirer too, something that shouldn't be overlooked. Leveraging our reserves against RBL you could easily raise several hundred million, probably in excess of £0.5bn when combined with 2021 revenue / production, particularly as their is NO DEBT either. As a very rough yardstick, Ithaca raised $1650m RBL against 2P's of a little over x3 SQZ's.

Maybe a question to raise at our AGM as to why we have not made use of our “considerable unutilised debt capacity”, let alone our CoH.

aimo & dyor

Interesting that Ithaca have $1,650M Reserves Based Lending (RBL) maturing June 2024 of which ~$500m outstanding, that I guess could be re-negotiated and with leverage ratio at 1.4x Ithaca could easily pull off a mega-deal ..... regardless of what is announced in public, inc Mr Crawford said it won’t involve a “big cash outflow”, suppose it all depends if you class the cash from CoH or RBL or IPO !

Either way it looks likely another NS asset is soon to be swallowed up.... and not by us !

aimo