RE: RE: 3rd Offer…6 Aug 2022 13:04
Mommur,
Morning, "Happy to see the Hardys adding in the 350p range, which is interesting as one could assume its implicit support..." , yes I also noted they began their own DRIP soon as dividend payments were made. So where does that leave AA if our BoD and PI's have the backing of the Hardy's, well :
Option 1:
AA has serious talks with ACW et al and come to an agreement that both are happy with , thus back t/o with Scheme of Arrangement, which I would guess, the Hardys would too. As many here have stated, that would need to be well into the '5's mainly cash not paper, low '6's would be more fitting.
Option 2 :
No Scheme of Arrangement agreed so AA goes hostile and gamble on enough votes to back him.
Option 3:
For AA to PUSU (‘put-up or shut-up’), by not later than 5pm on 9 August 2022, either announce a firm intention to make an improved offer for Serica or walk away for min 6 months.
What's interesting with AA approach is it appears no real pre-talks took place prior to announcement and our board were caught with their pants down. Often, if a company makes an approach, is then turned down pointblank, bidder loses interest, it is not disclosed to the market, likewise if an offer is make and the BoD feel it doesn't value the company correctly. However if a recommended offer is announced 'out of the blue' then, in reality, the deal has already been struck, backed by the board weeks beforehand and probably been worked on for months previously too.
This leads me to think either AA had already been turned down by SQZ or AA knew that SQZ have already have been approached and also turned down, so for AA to gain traction and smoke-out 8.3 holders,( possibly with view to seek irrevocable undertakings ) he had to go public and risk it all on the next 28 days. AA is for sure a risk taker, but very much a calculated one at that, Monday / Tuesday will see what level of risk he is prepared to take-on, my guess, his 3rd and final offer will smash previous ones out of the water, after all, he needs Hardy's on-side to ensure victory or take a $billion$ gamble with a 'borderline' offer !!!
PS I'm still in isolation ..... :-(
aimo & dyor
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