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And for good measure, how about this to add to Weird Wednesday ... the ~363p cash I guesstimated is on par with BP recent transfer of shares at 365p. Just thought of that whilst in bed so had to get up and post it ....

NB Are delusional episodes one of Covid Symptoms, all medical help appreciated.

aimo & dyor

Maverick,

"Does AA have a buyer for the merged company?"

I would have said his thought processes are exactly that, Viaro being the most obvious imo, always thinking ahead of the game.

AA will not be looking to become next Bernard Looney that's for sure, but more of a George Clooney.

aimo & dyor

chinch,

One thing for sure is AA has up-turned the Status Quo so much so a new riff will be needed. SQZ can not keep playing the same old, same old anymore and expect to get away with it.

aimo & dyor

OMG, 40 days on, 18th Sept, my chart shows 574p ..... this is starting to feel like Weird Wednesday .... don't believe in coincidences, but really, could this actually play-out !!! As you mentioned chinch, "Not long to go now and let’s hope for the best.."

Correction:

'...no latter than 55 days following Scheme document publication...'

aimo & dyor

Of course if our Bod agree Scheme of Arrangement, then it could all be over in 40 days, with money in our accounts no latter than 50 days following Scheme document publication !!

Once again, I shall treat that comment with the dignity it deserves.

chinch,

Agree, "Very tricky situation ..... "

How will AA pitch the deal should a 3rd offer be presented. Well media will no doubt point to RRE and KIST SP performances and push the point, assuming equity offer remains same, then having 0.4 share conversion would allow SQZ holders to hop onboard AA's Love Boat & ride the wave of AA's (assumed) continued success .....

Cash offer would be ~10% above 100 day VWMA(100), a period that has seen us at historic high levels.

Strangely, just checked my chart, first date the offer can be closed ( 60 days ) would take us to 2nd week of October, estimated SP would be ~595p, not too far from 575p ..... Stranger than strange also around the time we are expecting NE results too. However, 40 days (~18th Sept) is when the window for last date SQZ to announce material new info that may impact the offer, eg North Eigg results, which according to SQZ RNS would be too early to know for sure, "Results of the North Eigg well are expected in mid-October". Another reason behind AA timing of his approach.

NB For the young ones out there, Love Boat, earlier version of Love Island.

aimo & dyor

Oh, Hardy's just added another 20,000 at almost days high ... interesting.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/form-83-serica-energy-plc-97bpocxhr4tx767.html

Sasa,

Either way I do think we are in for an interesting weekend, if not, then most certainly by CoB, 5pm on 9th August.

My Covid senses are telling me all is not well for keeping SQZ independent.

Our SP has been pegged back with constant drip drip of selling by Marshall Wace, BNP Paribas and Acadian Asset Management over the past three weeks or so... partners in crime with AA, who knows. Never has our SP even got close to either offer price ..... is this all part of the 'framing' of the third and final offer by AA.

D220 / Chinch, don't think you would be alone either, however, that does not change my view in that Hardy's are kingpins here. atb

aimo & dyor

AA may well make a move on Friday, giving his spin doctors time to get news out for the w/e. Unless of course any new proposal has the backing of our board and recommends offer to shareholders, of which, off the record, Hardy's would have pre-accepted too in principle.

Have to say, even at 575p/s we would still be given away too cheaply imo.

aimo & dyor

sasa,

For net capital outlay of ~£400m cash, AA would be acquiring ~29kboepd, ~58mmboe ( possibly to double on NE ) Operator status of 4/5 of our fields. In reality AA's cash would be buying our reserves for ~£6.80 boe ..... less than half going rate.... so, like you, I do think ACW needs a counter plan or two ready 'n' waiting.

aimo & dyor

sasa,

The only route open to AA in making this deal happen is to up the cash element, considerably. Given his city contacts, cash generative ability of combined entity, AA could potentially issue senior secured bonds (possibly his preferred route, as per Tulip) to cover the additional capital outlay or simply take on other debt. AA is a trader by nature so will have already calculated all options open to him, knowing how to 'work the crowds expectations' to get that deal.

Current offer does not really require AA raising any additional capital, as he will use ours !!! ... There is no way AA would have gone into this process without having access to cash should he need it. That's my concern, but would still need votes to back him.

In real terms AA would probably need to raise his current cash part of the offer by ~150p/s, from 213p, to, lets say ~363p ( Oh, just where our SP is sat atm as it happens) . That would only required AA to issue bonds / acquire debt of ~£400m, chicken feed given FCF combined group will be throwing off over the next 12 months.

Would 363p cash + 0.4 (212p) share of Kistos be enough to get the votes, 575p/s, might just be !!

So, I'm not counting my KFC's ( Kistos Fried Chickens ) quite yet as we may not have seen last of AA.

aimo & dyor

'write', lol ..... getting late, off to Covid Dreamland for me soon....

Awww, how I would like to give you all a massive group Cuddle right now ..... although maybe not wise given my current state of wellness.

AA would need to pull a sizable rabbit out of the hat given Hardy's appear to have chosen sides, though you should never totally right AA off imo

atb

aimo & dyor

For all the enormous FREE LTIP & PSA's ( currently 3.2m shares), ACW does have 2,710,544 shares waiting in the wings, dating back to 2015 for ACW to open his wallet .... Fully vested at between 12p to 24p.... total sum of £720k required, 'street' value now £9,649,536, give or take a few pence.

Are the Hardy's happy with using THEIR cash to support the SP when ACW is sat on an additional~2.2% of the company, making total of ~13.2m shares (~4.9%). ACW at the first none-closed period should buy these 2.7m shares, without hesitation imo. Then again, why should he bother, as ACW will ensure a clause would automatically fully vest all these shares upon takeover.

BTW, for each and every dividend paid, ACW also gets free shares on a compound basis to add to his already 2,710,544 .... so there's another reason to expect an 'unexpectedly large' dividend at some point.

Full current shares 'street value' for ACW ~£47,000,000.

aimo & dyor

Correction :

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~52% ( COB 02/08/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the share capital to back him, tall order as it stands imo.

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~53% ( COB 02/08/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the votes to back him, tall order as it stands imo.

Amounts to right are latest that replace earlier disclosures.

Abrams Bison Investments 3.1 3 2.9
abrdn plc 2.81 3.19 3.43 3.61
Acadian Asset Management 1.96 1.89 1.84 1.8 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.57 1.52 1.45
Allianz Global Investors 1.19 1.11 1.09
BlackRock 5.18 5.2 5.17 5.18 5.01
BNP Paribas 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.42
Board Of Directors 2.669
Cairn Capital Limited 1.64 1.69 1.73
David and Monique Newlands 1.2 1.195 1.19
David Hardy 10.42 10.45 10.47 10.49 10.52
Dowgate Wealth Limited 0.13 0.12
FMR 0.25 0.28
Hargreave Hale Ltd 2.7627
Ian Alexander Liddle 0.03
Janus Henderson 3.6 3.57 3.56 3.55 3.59 3.55
Jefferies International 0.13
JPMorgan Asset Management 4.55 4.56
Legal And General  0.13
Man Group PLC 2.8515
Marshall Wace LLP 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.54
Polar Capital LLP 2.85
Royal London Asset Management Ltd 1.242 1.22
Stonehage Fleming Investment 1.49 1.47 1.45

Flexmw, yep clearly the Hardys are on a mission, with their very own version of DRIP in stating their position with these 'trickle' (~£180k) buys .... Anyone that wants SQZ will need to make the Hardy's ecstatic, or just don't bother. Really don't think these buys are a defense against AA though, more likely to ward-off others unless they really, really do want to make a realistic offer. Hardy's, our very own White Knight !! Thank goodness ....

aimo & dyor

Thanks Sasa,

In isolation atm .... great, no cooking, cleaning or domestic duties for me !!! Not allowed out of the office, having sustenance passed through the window atm .... although, how I'm suppose to fully recover without having high levels of fluids (beer) is beyond me !!

FF, yes I did get a response, but to say "NE was a nailed on cert.." would be 'over-eigging' it imo !!

Sorry, as you can probably appreciate, it would be up to the poster in question to stipulate publicly, not moi-meme, atb !

aimo & dyor

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~53% ( COB 29/7/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~12.19%, AA would need ~37% to back him, tall order as it stands imo.

Amounts to right are latest that replace earlier disclosures.

Abrams Bison Investments 3.1 3 2.9
abrdn plc 2.81 3.19 3.43 3.61
Acadian Asset Management 1.96 1.89 1.84 1.8 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.57 1.52 1.45
Allianz Global Investors 1.19 1.11 1.09
BlackRock 5.18 5.2 5.17 5.18 5.01
BNP Paribas 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.45
Board Of Directors 2.669
Cairn Capital Limited 1.64 1.69 1.73
David and Monique Newlands 1.2 1.195 1.19
David Hardy 10.42 10.45 10.47 10.49
Dowgate Wealth Limited 0.13 0.12
FMR 0.25 0.28
Hargreave Hale Ltd 2.7627
Ian Alexander Liddle 0.03
Janus Henderson 3.6 3.57 3.56 3.55 3.59 3.55
Jefferies International 0.13
JPMorgan Asset Management 4.55 4.56
Legal And General  0.13
Man Group PLC 2.8515
Marshall Wace LLP 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.56
Polar Capital LLP 2.85
Royal London Asset Management Ltd 1.242
Royal London Asset Management Ltd 1.22
Stonehage Fleming Investment 1.49 1.47

I would have thought it would be quite easy for a PE backed acquirer to out gun AA, esp in terms of cash offer, if not FULL cash offer.

It appears Mr Market thinks AA is all but down 'n' out for the count, SP 490p atm (-32pts / -6.25%) ..... sure it will not be long until someone else tries their luck, this time with a REAL offer !
Problem for an acquirer is N Eigg results will be upon us before we know it .... do they want to grab a bargain right now or run the gauntlet of NE producing positive results.

aimo & dyor