The Hardy's Deal Maker or Deal Breaker17 Jul 2022 13:06
On release of approach RNS, D220 asked, "I wonder what the Hardy's are thinking....?"
For me, Hardy's are kingpins here I'm afraid. Their percentage of voting shares could easily make or break the deal or at the very least make AA work for it.
The Hardys with our board control ~13.2% of share capital, which imo would make AA's T/O ambitions rather uncomfortable. If I'm correct, AA would need to secure ~39.6% of eligible equity to counter the Hardy's and our boards votes.
I would have thought AA advisors have already approached Hardy's to 'sound them out' and gained a 'favourable' response, otherwise AA, imo would not have gone this far. Next step would be for AA to gain irrevocable undertaking from the Hardy's, whether that would entail improving the offer or not, who knows. If AA manages to do so, would for certain ensure AA T/O happens, especially as BlackRock (~5%) & GS (~4%) recently came aboard who would no doubt vote through any deal for a fast buck.
Like a number of PI's, the Hardy's have been holders for many years, as such with last few years dividends and this, I would guess their shares owe them very little, if anything. The Hardy's are more than likely 'close' to ACW, will this influence their voting, or will our boards 'short comings' trump the former.
The recent NBP has not only turbo-boosted our SP but unfortunately also means that unless, as a shareholder you came aboard after Feb 2022 the cash offer part of the deal (246p/s) alone would ensure profit, plus you then get 'free' shares in Kistos as a bonus. I would have thought many institutional investors acquired prior to Feb and AA would be banking on that too. So that, in itself would put SQZ in a very tricky situation.
AA could, imo, easily up the offer, Mr Hardy, as a businessman knows the real worth of their shares so, I say to them, don't sell yourself short and other holders too, I'm talking your everyday PI, now is not the time to stop at the final hurdle.
Message to Mr & Mrs Hardy, please ... VOTE NO or gain a significant better offer as AA would of already worked the numbers with and without your backing, so make AA work for it !
aimo & dyor
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