Member Info for NewKOTB

Helped us breakout of the tiresome downtrend we have been stuck in since beginning of March.

Looking for a good day tomorrow to cement our breakout.

aimo & dyor

surprised,

Not a case of wanting too sell I'm afraid. ACW now needs to defend our company, not an easy task when up against AA and his industry cohorts. Only way we will be able to get closer to 'true' value would be for another to enter the arena, fingers crossed.

ACW et al probably had several nice relaxing holiday's planned for this summer .... not anymore.

atb

aimo & dyor

See JPM have upped their holding ..... also quite a few institutional holders declaring interest above 2%, bit of a worry as I can easily see them siding with AA.

aimo & dyor

After having slept on it, it wouldn't take much to get key SH onside and for AA to make it happen. I know the pro and cons and first instinct by PI's this is way below what we are worth .... !! Fundamentally that is correct. However the key to this deal are the KIST shares on offer. I have said that the current offer of 0.2932 new Kistos shares will not cut it afaic, needs to move closer towards ~0.40 new Kistos shares. That would result in ~60% of the new company having Ex-SQZ holders. So here's where the crux of the matter is ... greater percentage of share offer the better value for SQZ holders at time of transaction.

Most will know that AA is always several moves ahead, this is where I see real value being added. AA will deploy our assets and work current ones to the max, probably add another deal or two. If NE comes in then SQZ holders will see value unlocked and benefit too. Thereafter, AA will sell the newly combined company within 18-24 months for a significant premium to 462p. Who knows what, but that's my hope. If no sale then ending of WFT with windfall tax would ensure and extra boost to CoH and profits.
The plus is a cash payment of 246p/s, probably a significant number of holders, prior to Feb 2022 would be in profit on that alone, but now along with the cash you have a meaningful shares in KISTOS, that will probably be sold to a PE or PE backed outfit, eg Viaro for a multi £billion£ deal.

One thing for sure , with his own skin in the game, same as RRE, he will return cash to shareholders as and when rather than let it build and build.

ACW et al, you need to up your game as AA is coming for you.

aimo & dyor

Watching KIST SP this morning, AA plan could quickly fall-apart .... his approach was based on KIST SP of being 463p .... atm, this morning it's looking in doubt if that will hold. If not then AA would need to offer greater equity in KIST over and above the original 0.2932 new Kistos shares to match the 382p ..... not a bad thing imo. Where both SP's settle on close today will be interesting.

aimo & dyor

AA and the market knew this would be more than likely rejected as logically without further dialogue AA position and offer remained unchanged from the non-binding offer made by Kistos that was rejected on 24 May. So what are AA plans now, flush out (form 8.3) like minded supporters to back his bid, probably, so as to gain irrevocable undertaking, once again, same MO as previous takeovers.

aimo & dyor

sasa,

You stated our response would be 'after due consideration', SQZ actually RNS's "careful consideration", how could you be so wrong !!! (lol).

I await AA's next move with interest, remember, a failed attempt stops him from trying again for, I think 12 months, or maybe 6, would need to check, either way I don't think he will walk this easily after such a public attempt..... reputation and all that !!

aimo & dyor

Full on Hostile is the way forward for AA it now appears ....

Battle lines drawn ...

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2022-07-11/debates/494EDB6D-EEC5-45D2-97F1-009F2398D942/Energy(OilAndGas)ProfitsLevyBill

Some really and I mean really Ill-informed, naive speakers that spout factually incorrect information on which to base their argument ... these are supposed to intelligent people, really if that is the best the UK has to offer, god help us all.

Key being "full signed-off CPR ..", just saying !

atb

sasa,

((14x58)+440)/272=460p/s

NB Estimated 58mmboe reserves remaining, however with recent well interventions that could easily pop back up to ~61mmboe come YE which would then come out at 475p/s.

aimo & dyor

One approach that may gain traction is for SQZ to sell the assets (company), at a discounted rate (382p/s) leaving / creating a cash shell company that would take a cut of the revenue, akin to the BKR deal. From which cash accrued could be distributed to shareholders as and when. Just a thought, not sure how that would work on a tax / practical level, but an option nevertheless.

aimo & dyor

schlemiel,

"I don't believe Chariot will be the company taking Anchois to production.."

Which is maybe why our CPR is stuck in the 'shortly' tray. If someone's after Anchois they will not want the strategic, in-depth details of the CPR released into public domain, esp if a PE backed outfit came a calling.

aimo & dyor

Just ran some quick figures again.

Given we are producing ~29kboepd net atm from 5 active fields with circa ~£440m or ~45% of our MCap in cash, zero debt and 2P reserves of ~58mmboe, KIST offer of 382p/s would value our reserves at ~£10boe, way too low imo. Recently AA completed a deal for just over £14boe. For similar approach, KIST would need to raise their offer closer to 460p/s, that's given NE is still a high risk drill is where I see our value at this given moment.

aimo & dyor

Watch them roll-in .... finally we will see who has what and maybe where BP's 5%, AXA's 12% and GRG's 19% went too.

ACW, get around the table and squeeze AA nuts until they crack .... get the offer we deserve or walk.

However, if walk is the option, serious shake-up is required in the approach to the business, otherwise AA will not be the last trying their arm.

aimo & dyor

sasa,

Not sure about it lasting a few days .... AA is the long game player, his chessboard will be arranged and the Elephant trap set. Our board should of come straight-out this morning and rejected in full their approach, we haven't so this tells me ACW thinks there is room for negotiation. Or ACW knows all about white Knights at the ready
For combined offer that gives more KIST equity would probably be the way forward as I can not see AA wanting to up the cash side as clearly he has his limit, hence why AA is offering us our own cash back as part of the deal. Equity of KIST would need to move from the current offer 0.2932 new Kistos shares to something more like ~0.4 as a minimum for serious negotiation to being imo.
TR-1's will be telling too ... keep an eye on those as he may well get irrevocable undertaking to back his bid.

ACW et al are in a tricky situation of their own making, it's now up to them to sort it !!

aimo & dyor

No, just Yanks at it again .... full on mkt manipulation, they done it with the metals market ( caught with their pants down), no reason to think otherwise with the oil market either.

aimo

David and Monique Newlands .. Now there's a blast from the past !!!

1.2% holding

See the Yanks are freaking (manipulating) the oil market out again today as per usual.

Brent & WTI down ~7%, will not help when trying to negotiate a deal.

Rellim,

"If ACW and Mitch really want to scupper the Kist offer, they could announce a special dividend and return hundreds of millions to the shareholders..."

I guess, thanks to KIST's approach pre AGM that was part of our boards thinking at AGM with hint at returning more cash to shareholders.... without which possibly such a switch to distributing cash may not of occurred. So could still be on, however that would only stop KIST which may not be a bad thing !!

aimo & dyor