Member Info for NewKOTB

"Something else is afoot here...." not with the droop it's not !

Although I do agree that this sustained attack and 40% destruction of SP in two months is far from normal and probably used cover of WFT and fear it created to carry out the attack.

aimo

"The SP droop is disconnected from the price of oil & gas...."

As my gran would, 'un-natural behaviour', esp with the droop !!

Two Months Ago ... closed at 509p, now sub 300p, 40% destruction of SP based on fear and mainly WFT.

Ditch the WFT NOW !!!

Oil markets continue to prove they're not for the faint of heart.

Physical markets are no looser than April with still no sustainable pathway to address supply challenges on either crude or products. Gonna need a LOT of (sticky) demand losses to validate this leg down.

WTI now at same price it was BEFORE Putins war kicked off .... unbelievable !!!

Nothing fundamental had changed with supply / demand for Oil / gas ... yet the big players are moving the market however they like ... pure market manipulation.

Market flat and stable yesterday until yanks woke up ... then crash, down WTI / Brent down +11%, same today, yanks online after stable morning ... bammmm down oil goes >3% atm

NS O&G industry is in a complete mess atm ..... no one wants to invest, no one will think WFT is a one off, etc etc ... trust has been lost afaic .... Dump the WFT ASAP and get some normality back again .... You just have to see how Brent had its 3rd biggest one day fall for 34 years yesterday, you can not make big calls with commods all over the place. .... confidence needs to return to sector NOW !!

Nadhim Zahawi as ex GKP chief strategy officer should know, what's what in the oil game.

aimo

Much better to remove levy and replace with actual WFT of say, one-off tax eg +15% on profits.

The main flaw with WFT is, as gas / oil falls to get closer to the point at which the levy will be removed (unknown critical details atm) prior to sunset, the less cash like of HRB / SQZ / I3E / IOG et al will have to invest ..... with falling commods and lower revenue it will not be long before ALL NS Investment will cease, regardless of 91% rebate as no CEO worth their salt will risk spending £millions£ on a FID with 20-30% CoS drilling esp when the rules change overnight. Cash will always be king !
Levy needs to be removed, period !!

aimo

Lot more skewed to SQZ as my holding in RRE was mainly ploughed back into SQZ .... so had to start a fresh with KIST once AA IPO'ed.

At the moment SQZ are receiving ~£16m per week (£2.3m p/d) on today's NBP 262p Brent $103 post opex / capex / divi / admin on avg production although given latest presentation appears we are closer to top end guidance of 30,000 boe/d net atm.

Cash and deposits stood at £246m on 31 May 2022 with a further £150m lodged as security, combined total £396m. This figure would not have included May's receivables est ~£41m. Recent expenses would probably all but nullify June's income but lets say, still received for June, ~£10m. On going receipts I expect to cover cost of drill / well interventions for next few months. So est cash currently sat at £447m, or ~60% of our current MCap of £767m with ZERO debt.

aimo & dyor

In two letters ... 'AA'

All about deal making that is accretive, something AA is proficient at, plus their income is TTF which close at > €165 per MWh, the highest closing level since early March, that's equals to ~$50 per million Btu, or ~$280 per boe .... where NBP is currently ONLY $181boe.

aimo & dyor

Our SP is struggling to get off the floor after the third largest daily drop in Brent for 34 years. Guess it must be all that black heavy gungy oil we produce .... that makes up 140% of our production mix .....

So we now have an Iraqi Chancellor .... https://www.zahawi.com/ at least he should know the industry a little better given his experience with GKP (Gulf Keystone Petroleum)

Hope last weeks meeting between Rishi and O&G industry was not a waste of time and our 'issues' still get addresses in the amended levy bill, or better still Zahawi calls another one.

Current Bill :
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/draft-legislation-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy-bill

aimo & dyor

DA absolutely flying again today, with DA average from 162p Monday, 205p yesterday to 262p today, Aug future 240p/therm down on yesterday.

Yet due to fall yesterday in Brent / WTI of >10% we are down today also (-2.5p), whilst everyone else are up !! Think there is more truth and honesty with the UK Gov than the markets atm.... that's saying something !!

aimo

Oh, great ..... so what about the WFT amendments now !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62048657?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62c47123b893776ef33432a3%26Rishi%20Sunak%20also%20resigns%262022-07-05T17%3A13%3A49.353Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:915d9039-e807-4b27-97fb-119d1d271e38&pinned_post_asset_id=62c47123b893776ef33432a3&pinned_post_type=share

Treating us like an oil producer ... Brent / WTI down ~10% today

Absolutely flying today, with DA average from 162p yesterday to 205p today, Aug future 311p (+10%).

Rig on location and being readied.... just a small matter of now, waiting ....

Just checked, yep, off 11th for 10 days maintenance ....

"Flows of Russian gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and through Ukraine were steady on Monday.."

"Nord Stream will undergo regular annual maintenance from July 11 to July 21, taking flows down to zero and sparking concern over how promptly they will resume afterward..."

Thought NS1 will be off-line next week, 11th for 10 days maintenance ... not today !!

Latest Reported ETA:
2022-07-05 01:30 LT (UTC +1)

So, on-location come market opening tomorrow morning.