Member Info for NewKOTB

"They’re using Swiss banks whilst our members use foodbanks. Not anymore..."

Remember what happened to the miners .. just saying

These protest strikes, across all sectors, will not do anyone any good in the long run, never had never will imo.

Rellim,

Paying out 100p in dividend may only possibly halt AA progress, but would wouldn't keep other wolves from our door ... ( See my earlier post on this matter ).

As for taking it private, I take it you mean by the BoD, you must be having a laugh !!! However, SQZ could easily end up being held privately, sure are enough PE outfits around with mountains of cash to hand, esp if we pay out ~£272m in dividends beforehand. The plus-side for Mgt / Board is they will keep their jobs (probably) as you will still need a skilled board, esp ops side, downside, no more lucrative LTIP's / awards etc.

Looking like a busy weekend for ACW et al.

aimo & dyor

Drop due to worry of competition driving prices down something BT will struggle to match given what's happening union wise atm imo.

Election Return Date, do we know when this is yet ?

Upomega,

I will ignore your last comment for obvious reasons !!!

atb

jasond,

Any holding 1% or greater need to disclose their position as an approach to the company has been made, as per rule 8.3(a) of the Takeover Code, hence all the RNS's....( Form 8.3)

As for, "I don’t understand why we’re not seeing the share price fly... "

Either Mr Market thinks the bid will fail, or we have shenanigans going on ... for me the latter.

aimo & dyor

Yesterdays fall was down to almost entirely a single seller ... 'Abrams Bison Investments', sales of which made up ~80% of the total sales accounted for yesterday. Appears to be similar this morning .... no need to guess why !!

aimo & dyor

Sorry, think net claw-back on production is ~91.25% cost .... so I make that 54 hours production, or put another way from now until Saturday morning around 11:30am N Eigg will be paid for.

N Eigg has been quoted from Serica to cost est £45m, so lets add on £10m given current for safety, total est £55m. So 12% of that, ~£6.6m would be our net cost after levy claw-back.

Today's DA NBP / Brent on avg production SQZ revenue are receiving ~£2.4m per day net ( post hedging / opex / admin / capex / divi ) ..... So a tiny 3 days production OR 72 hours to cover our net costs for drilling N Eigg..... hardly anything in real terms to be concerned about, but as you all know Mr Market will always find a way to torment PI's.

aimo & dyor

Closed on day low ... down 5.4% (18.5p) ... :-(

KIST closed at 462p (1p off offer price), SQZ closed on 323p.

Several assumptions can be made, but more on that from me tomorrow.

aimo & dyor

Yes, KIST has hardly deviated from in and around it's share offer price 463p, yet today SQZ have been taken to the cleaners, fast wash (eco of course), spin ... then hung out to dry. SP just above the day's high of previous close before the approach RNS atm.

Now BlackRock have upped their holding too ... now 5.34%, as I mentioned earlier, I think I can guess where their vote will be going.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/form-83-serica-energy-plc-nwpdbcmhg80lflr.html

aimo & dyor

Past 10 minutes downward pressure on our SP -4% .... Institution will be ahead of the game so PI will just have to follow in their wake. Games will be played with our SP regardless of final destination of deal.

One thing we have yet to discuss, what will happen to our SP if AA withdraws.... maybe one for another day !

AIMO & DYOR

Sasa,

"The obvious solution to Serica's excess cash problem currently, I'd say, is to distribute a good chunk of it to their shareholders while there's still time...."

So there we have it, our boards dilemma .... our board need to sacrifice their future LTIP's / awards in order to keep their jobs and noses in the trough. Giving, sorry, returning 100p cash to SH will result in our SP being pushed back to sub 200p in the first instance at least. Those LTIP's from 2021 may then be in danger and for certain the £millions£ linked to their 2022 LTIP's will probably not be vested for a long time, if at all. All those awards waiting in the wings have just lost 30% of their value too. Then again, there are always 2023 LTIP should SQZ survive that can be used to 'compensate'.

So, lets say we do return 100p/s ... what then. All that will mean is AA has been locked out but other cash rich suitors will still fancy there chances imo. Valued at <£500m after return of cash would mean you could get us even cheaper. Still no debt, cash on hand circa ~£150m, producing ~29kboepd from 5 producing field, reserves of ~58mmboe, for me that would give us a fair t/o valuation of ~£960m vs MCap of ~£500m ..... We would still be a target, just not by AA.

aimo & dyor

sasa,

Morning, all that you mention as being +ve about SQZ is exactly why AA wants us. The 'lovely problem' will not go away should AA decide to withdraw, others will have seen the spotlight on us and taken note, if not already done so.

N Eigg success will only make us more attractive ( particularly given WFT tax allowance ) that will take time to prove up and become revenue earning so will hardly be reflected in our valuation. We need an instant accretive deal using our cash that than brings cash in from day one, with material increase in reserves in order to stand a good chance of getting AA out of out hair. How many deals recently have we walked from that would of ensured we are not in the position we are today. Pity we can't pull Andrew out of our hat right now !

Funny old world, when hoards of cash and zero debt is a bad thing .... but that's the O&G game atm.

aimo & dyor

At the moment AA holds 17.25% of KISTOS with another 3.33% held by other board members. For SQZ to have been successful in taking over Kistos on that pathetic attempt to re-buff AA initial approach ACW would have needed a miracle. Likewise anyone interested in Kistos would need the boards backing for a deal to go through. This is where real skin in the game counts, by being able to stop an approach in its tracks, not by accruing LTIP's but by putting real cash into what you believe in.

Assuming the deal happens, then AA share would go down to ~5.5% of the new company. But rather than having a 17.5% (£70m) share of a £400m company, AA will have 5.5% of soon to become a £billion£ one, one AA will sell-on for imo , a significantly improved market value to that of the merger valuation. AA would not be bothering with SQZ if he didn't think he could improve his personal wealth .... some may love him for this other may hate him, but he is his own man with drive, ambition and crazy brain for doing deals.

aimo & dyor

Well .... from zero to ?????

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/form-8-opd-serica-energy-plc-4rygpqjzt5ik1ns.html

upomega,

There is no fence, that was removed along time ago. The name of the game now is for ACW to get the best deal he can or find a way out of this mess. For me the only way he can do that is materially improve our value, by that I mean announce a deal of our own and hope current SH see this as a financially better choice.

ACW et al will be watching those form 8.3 flood in and with each one wonder which way they will go, that will decide AA next move to formally make an offer or 'let it go'. At the moment AA is just testing the water to avoid being 'frozen' out of making any bid. For me, AA would not have gone this far if he thought odds were against him. Chances are AA will go full on hostile if SQZ and KIST are unable to reach an agreement.

White Knight is imo still a viable hope, but atm, 'hope' is all we shareholders have, not a good place to be.

AIMO & DYOR

Oilman,

"IIs & AA city friends will make this deal happen..."

That is my thought too, not at all by choice may I add .... AA has been two or three steps ahead of our pipe 'n' slipper sleeping BoD. You only have to see how the two SP's recently moved in opposite directions to know the power and influence of the cohorts AA keeps. To see how BlackRock and GS came onboard in and around opening exchanges. How AA initial approach got rebuffed with an ill thought-out attempt to acquire Kistos, seriously !! AA has only just begun, next step is now underway, to smoke out holders who his team of 'advisors' will then contact and 'sound out' with the object of getting, ideally, irrevocable undertaking.

ACW et al have their work cut out for sure and need to fight hard to avoid the 'merger'. SQZ have created their own mess, not as if they had not been warned. Real shame, but we are where we are. There are no Queensberry Rules when it comes to deal making as far as AA is concerned ... gloves are off from the beginning.

aimo & dyor

"Malcy is keeping schtum until he has spoken to both companies...."

Or maybe he has done and told too .... :-(

Not that they could say anything more than has been RNS's already.