Member Info for NewKOTB

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~59% ( COB 05/08/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the share capital to back him.

Amounts to right are latest that replace earlier disclosures.

Abrams Bison Investments 3.1 3 2.9
abrdn plc 2.81 3.19 3.43 3.61 3.76
Acadian Asset Management 1.96 1.89 1.84 1.8 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.57 1.52 1.45 1.37 1.36
Allianz Global Investors 1.19 1.11 1.09
AXA Investment Managers S.A 4.92
BlackRock 5.18 5.2 5.17 5.18 5.01 5.03 5
BNP Paribas 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.42 1.4 1.39 1.35
Board Of Directors 2.669
Cairn Capital Limited 1.64 1.69 1.73
David and Monique Newlands 1.2 1.195 1.19
David Hardy 10.42 10.45 10.47 10.49 10.52
Dowgate Wealth Limited 0.13 0.12
FMR 0.25 0.28
Hargreave Hale Ltd 2.7627
Ian Alexander Liddle 0.03
Janus Henderson 3.6 3.57 3.56 3.55 3.59 3.55
Jefferies International 0.13 0.07
JPMorgan Asset Management 4.55 4.56 4.59
Legal And General  0.13
Man Group PLC 2.8515 2.8509 2.852
Marshall Wace LLP 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.49
National Petroleum Corp of Namibia 1.1
Polar Capital LLP 2.85
Royal London Asset Management 1.242 1.22
Stonehage Fleming Investment 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.44

So no late RNS detailing AA 3rd offer, just have to wait another few days then to see if / what / who surfaces.

BB,

I'm not commenting on the content per se ( although I would question various aspects ), just that its one persons view posted on substack and has not been produced by one of the pro agencies, some may say that is better, I'm just saying that it needs to be viewed in context. It's no better than you or I posting, or Tweeting for that matter afaic.

aimo & dyor

If I recall, Brevarthan Research is a one-man-band, as such, contents should be viewed through open eyes.

PS Note sure if its just my browser but SP shown (+4pts) in header is way off the mark, currently up >10pts, even given reporting delay.

aimo & dyor

Strong SP performance this afternoon since US opened ..... maybe 'chatter' over the pond is different to here, or simply building of expectation for ~5pm.

Dick, agree, not sure you read my post (02 Aug 2022 19:48) regarding LTIP's etc that links in nicely with 'remuneration'.

aimo & dyor

Not long to wait for announcement of another dividend ( maiden interim ), already stated by SQZ at anticipated ~6p/s, could even be significantly more given recent weeks, who knows ...... that's if we survive long enough to collect it !!!

Alternatively, AA could just dish-out wads of cash on SQZ behalf.

aimo & dyor

QC,

Yep, been a long, long time since we cut any deal of note outside of BP's influence .... think we need to go as far back as 2005/06 Kambuna Field , Indonesia .... even that, I'm not sure if we picked-up the licence or acquired via acquisition .... too far back for me to remember.

aimo & dyor

Correction:

hedging has reduced by 50kboepd >>>> hedging has reduced by 50k therms/day

That ~£400m of cash and equivalents was as of 31 May 2022, given avg production ~29kboepd and NBP for Q3 market price average currently 229p/therm, hedging has reduced by 50kboepd (hence security required), I would say that we do indeed have ~£400m CASH on hand atm with an additional ~>£100m lodged as security. So estimated ~>£500m cash and equivalents imo.

AA knows our cash hoard is currently growing at ~£2m per day ( post opex/hedging/admin/Capex/SBC & dividends) and I estimate come completion of deal, ( if there is one) AA would be looking to get his hands on at least ~£580m, of our cash and equivalents.

aimo & dyor

NS,

Agree, as we all know there are numerous reasons for PF Mgrs to adjust their position but given SQZ are in an active offer period by a known deal-maker, I do find it strange that several of the 8.3's are constantly 'modifying' their positions on an almost DAILY basis ... by modify, I do mean reduce. Would PF Mgrs do that daily for tiny % amounts, some as low as 0.01%, I would think not, so there is I would suggest another reason behind their 'modifying' than just those you have mentioned ! atb

PS Lot to be said about 'happiness'.

aimo & dyor

NS,

Please see yesterdays response to Surprised post .... and my take on who may or may not back AA.

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~58% ( COB 04/08/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the share capital to back him ... given we now have ~58% capital declared ( with AXA's late declaration yesterday ), things are starting to swing back in favour of AA should things turn hostile and T/O put to the vote .... :-(

Amounts to right are latest that replace earlier disclosures.

Abrams Bison Investments 3.1 3 2.9
abrdn plc 2.81 3.19 3.43 3.61
Acadian Asset Management 1.96 1.89 1.84 1.8 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.57 1.52 1.45 1.37
Allianz Global Investors 1.19 1.11 1.09
AXA Investment Managers S.A 4.92
BlackRock 5.18 5.2 5.17 5.18 5.01 5.03
BNP Paribas 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.42 1.4 1.39
Board Of Directors 2.669
Cairn Capital Limited 1.64 1.69 1.73
David and Monique Newlands 1.2 1.195 1.19
David Hardy 10.42 10.45 10.47 10.49 10.52
Dowgate Wealth Limited 0.13 0.12
FMR 0.25 0.28
Hargreave Hale Ltd 2.7627
Ian Alexander Liddle 0.03
Janus Henderson 3.6 3.57 3.56 3.55 3.59 3.55
Jefferies International 0.13 0.07
JPMorgan Asset Management 4.55 4.56
Legal And General  0.13
Man Group PLC 2.8515 2.8509 2.852
Marshall Wace LLP 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.51
Polar Capital LLP 2.85
Royal London Asset Management Ltd 1.242 1.22
Stonehage Fleming Investment 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.44

Ab2332,

Yes, I noticed their RNS … big questions for me how they managed to shift ~4m shares… my guess off book transfer, if so someone was happy to take them at close to their ATH… interesting!!

sasa,

Kistos SP has taken a hit in recent days, keeping assumption of upping cash element to ~363p and retaining 0.4 KIST share, we are now sat at guesstimated 3rd offer of ~553p/s on closing 475p Kistos SP. Don't think AA can afford the let his SP slip much more, lets see how kind the market is for him tomorrow.
As you mentioned, anything beginning with a 5, ".. it would be very difficult for Serica's BoD to argue that its last offer still 'materially undervalues the Co.' at that sp level..." too which I concur.

We are, thanks to AA efforts to-date, now front 'n' center of Harrods 'Bank Holiday Bargain Buys' window display. So AA knows next few days will decide if he is the new owner as it will not be long before (if not already) we see another shopper or two looking us up & down.

Could we also actually have a bidding war, given value on offer here, very possibly.

aimo & dyor

dcarn,

Please see my recent posts on that matter. atb

surprised,

"with respect you may be right, however, that is a massive assumption...."

I would have thought those currently selling at ~360p would be more than happy to sell at ~575p/s, 60% premium, assuming cash element upped by 150p.
Could 363p cash + 0.4 (212p as per latest offer) share of Kistos be enough to get their votes, I would say yes and some more too.

aimo & dyor

Looking at the 8.3 forms, working on the assumption that all those that have reduced since the offer would be willing to sell, ie back AA ..... plus likes of AXA & JPM would sell their mother for sixpence, that would give AA ~31% of the voting capital.

Wouldn't take many more moving over to dark-side in favour of AA.

Oh, KIST sp just took a little tumble ... now down 17pts (-3.5%)

aimo & dyor

At the same time we have our SP being pegged back with constant drip, drip of selling by Marshall Wace, BNP Paribas and Acadian Asset Management too ....

Our board should no longer think their votes along with Hardy's will be enough to fend-off AA, things are getting trickier and trickier as deadline approaches. AXA 4.92% would most certainly side with AA.

AA upping his cash element by +150p from 213p, to, lets say ~363p would see him gain the required number of votes with ease and take control of Serica imo.

Current offer does not really require AA raising any additional capital, as he will use ours, I estimate SQZ will have ~£580m cash & equivalents come deal completion !!! ... There is no way AA would have gone into this process without having access to substantial cash should he need it, that's my concern. So for AA to raise cash element by 150p, he would only need ~£400m... some how I don't think his city chums would have an issue with that given rewards on offer.

Net capital cash outlay of only ~£400m to acquire SQZ .... you may think that is total fiction, I would say it's probably fact.

ACW et al hope you have not arranged anything social over the weekend, almost for certain you will be burning the midnight oils .

aimo & dyor

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the share capital to back him ... given we now have ~58% capital declared ( with AXA's late declaration ), things are starting to swing back in favour of AA should things turn hostile and T/O put to the vote .... :-(

aimo & dyor

lol, shortly after I pointed out that AXA appear to be missing from the 8.3 declaration .... which btw, legal deadline passed earlier this week, AXA now say they hold 4.92%.

Maybe my prompt was enough for SQZ to make enquirers or just for AXA to fess-up !!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/form-83-axa-investment-managers-serica-energy-plc-o02r2vejjaan6xe.html

aimo & dyor

To-date, these are % notification 8.3 RNS's - total declared so far : ~52% ( COB 03/08/22)

With our Board and Hardy's controlling ~13.2%, AA would need ~40% of the share capital to back him, tall order as it stands, but a significantly improved offer could change dynamics in a flash imo.

Amounts to right are latest that replace earlier disclosures.

Abrams Bison Investments 3.1 3 2.9
abrdn plc 2.81 3.19 3.43 3.61
Acadian Asset Management 1.96 1.89 1.84 1.8 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.57 1.52 1.45
Allianz Global Investors 1.19 1.11 1.09
BlackRock 5.18 5.2 5.17 5.18 5.01
BNP Paribas 1.51 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.42 1.4
Board Of Directors 2.669
Cairn Capital Limited 1.64 1.69 1.73
David and Monique Newlands 1.2 1.195 1.19
David Hardy 10.42 10.45 10.47 10.49 10.52
Dowgate Wealth Limited 0.13 0.12
FMR 0.25 0.28
Hargreave Hale Ltd 2.7627
Ian Alexander Liddle 0.03
Janus Henderson 3.6 3.57 3.56 3.55 3.59 3.55
Jefferies International 0.13 0.07
JPMorgan Asset Management 4.55 4.56
Legal And General  0.13
Man Group PLC 2.8515 2.8509
Marshall Wace LLP 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52
Polar Capital LLP 2.85
Royal London Asset Management Ltd 1.242 1.22
Stonehage Fleming Investment 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.44

One thing I have just realised, only a few months ago both AXA and Cancord issued notification of reduced holding to under 5% .... neither now show as holding >1%, so who took their ~10%, and BP 5% too for that matter ?