Member Info for NewKOTB

"Disliking the deal is wholly separate from whether you still think there is upside..." .... ;-)

Just checked after today's RNS and SQZ have updated other holders too.

Mr D and Mrs D Hardy* 29,319,511 10.74 (unchanged)
BlackRock** 17,082,136 6.62 (added from 6.26)
JPMorgan Asset Management 13,578,657 4.92 (reduced from 4.97)
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers 13,169,887 4.36 (reduced from 4.82)
abrdn 12,986,673 4.76 (unchanged)
AXA Framlington*** 12,706,327 4.64 (reduced from 4.66)
Interactive Investor 10,518,541 3.84 (reduced from 3.85)
Janus Henderson Investors 9,707,677 3.62 (added from 3.56)
Directors 7,639,854 2.80 (unchanged)

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 31 December 2022 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 18 January 2023, the Company had 272,962,213 ordinary shares in issue of which 13.54% is not held in public hands.

2 Added, 4 reduced, 3 unchanged, interesting, not massive movements, however BlackRock continue to add after adding 0.81% in previous notification.

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

aimo & dyor

Mommur, yes good news !!

So, at last +ve signs of funds getting behind the deal, just want GS to pop back above 3% too. Maybe a few others to join in we could at least cushion dilution blow as I've no idea atm how the market will react, so the higher the better before completion .... Think a lot will buy in after completions RNS, atm too many unknowns particularly with regards to locked box and resultant net debt carried over. Although Brent is on a mission of late be nice to see Year high >$90 before completion.

PS For my sin's I've started to add again this week.

aimo & dyor

Well through persistent down channel resistance for first time since August, just need to survive back-test and stay above on Monday .... we opened at 278p on day of TW RNS, closed ~256p. So lets test 278p in next 2 weeks.

aimo & dyor

Need to break through today's resistance and hold above ... otherwise, still stuck in down channel from August .. good chance to breakout given the amount of attempts we have had and only a matter of weeks away from completing our 'unbelievable' deal .... :-(

Break and hold should see us progress, to hopefully at least 278p !!!

aimo & dyor

DT legal team would have been all over QCM from the first minute the 'report' landed .....

Interesting ...1.5m @ 310p .... hummm

Conflict of interest maybe for forthcoming deal .... either way the market absorbed these rather easily !

Question is, who took them ?

Given our reserves, ~52mmboe at ~£16boe ( less than we paid for TW btw) CoH ~£500m and add in estimated Tax Losses from 2022 activity of ~£100m, that would give Serica a current valuation of ~£1.43bn or 525p/s ..... With current SP 245p/s will we have any interest between now and end of March ?

aimo & dyor

Surprised,

"many analysts suggest 350p+ on completion of the deal in a few weeks..." lol, not seen any analyst that have said 350p on completion, with 40% dilution, you are having a giraffe, 350p would see most exit on opening bell, I know I would !!

zebbo,

"If the SP continues to fall, the deal could be in jeopardy..." that is more likely atm

aimo & dyor

“an encouraging update” .... say it all I'm afraid !!!... "encouraging" not for current SH's atm it's not !!!

lol, after update, Serica was my only NS play that finished down .... Mr Market just loves the TW deal !

At least we will be able to recover 109.25% of cost on Bruce upgrade .... :-)

Install for free and we get 9.25% Bobby Bonus too ..... but hush, don't tell Labour.

aimo & dyor

Average Quarter Price NBP per therm & Brent:
1Q 2021 - 49p - $61
2Q 2021 - 65p - $69
3Q 2021 - 119p - $73
4Q 2021 - 226p - $80
1Q 2022 - 232p - $102
2Q 2022 - 130p - $114
3Q 2022 - 281p - $101
4Q 2022 - 167p - $89
1Q 2023 – 152p -$83 (to-date figures)

If Mercuria offer us hedging there or thereabout of the past 2 year average would be fine imo :

Average : NBP 158p/therm and Brent $86

If you think we are in a tight corner spare a thought for The Hardy's are in a real tight spot. Without this TW deal handing over control to Mercuria there was an almost certainty that more approaches would have occurred , t/o would of released value for all. Now we know that a t/o will almost certainly never happen ( other than by Mercuria) so how will the Hardys exit !! Love to know exactly how they voted on this deal.

aimo & dyor

BB,

Times like this is when I could actually do with TWO MINDS !

To buy pre or post deal completion RNS due 'sometime' in March or not at all !

With the additional 111m shares being admitted, logic would suggest a drop in SP, however SHOULD the completion RNS be accompanied with op's update of combined entity ( fully expected tbh ) that should cushion any blow .... or when you add in the 'mysterious' backroom dealings that none of us are privy too, it's not unreasonable for there to be a substantial RNS to go some way to doffing one's cap to Serica. Otherwise, our BoD have indeed screwwwwed us over !

In the meantime, SP continues to drift down as cash continues to build ~£500m (~75% of MCap) :-(

aimo & dyor

Thought I would look at today's EV and compare it to day one of completion of BKR deal in Nov 2017, wish I hadn't now !!!

Don't forget that Mitch also rejoined SQZ and appointed CEO after his failure at Circle Oil on the same day as BKR announcement .

30/11/2017
On day one of BKR completion, closed at 67p (Mcap ~182m) with ~£15m CoH, zero debt EV = £167m.

4/2/2023
Today, closed at 245p (Mcap ~£669m) with ~£500m CoH with zero debt, EV = £169m

So our companies total value has increased by a massive £2m in +5 years..... way to go Mitch !!

aimo & dyor

QSM reducing their shorts yet? Just wondered, yep by -0.20%

FoT,

"How would you see BP selling their 5% stake when they did as regards your plan?...."

BP, as part of the Erskine transaction were given ~5% equity in consideration for the deal. A holding that never changed for 7 years, then out of the blue, 27/4/22 BP complete an accelerated book build to off-load all their holding ! At the time I along with other were taken by surprise and I commented on possible reasons behind such an exit, one being conflict of interest.

So fast forward ~8 months, mist begins to clear and we have the TW announcement, Dec 2022, so in answer to your implied question FoT, I do think both are connected, YES. I would have though BP's compliance team would have been all over BP's interest in Serica esp if a formal deal / SA was being worked on with Serica / Mercuria from as early as pre 1/1/22. Timing is as you suggest FoT, interesting, BP off-loaded Serica shares in order to meet compliance as that would have for sure been open to questioning given conflict of interests. BP received ~£49m for their shares, not only did they see a great return but also wipes the slate clean with Serica.

On that note, back to the locked box date being 1/1/22 ie the first day directly AFTER the official end of our BKR agreement with BP, coincidence or by design (to clear compliance) ..... 100% by design too imo.

Starting to think I've been too harsh with ACW et al recently and my advanced apologises if what I have expressed comes to be!

On another note, we have yet to see any movement by other institutional holders or the Hardy's for that matter. So is the deal really that awful !

None of what I have posted this afternoon is of any long term benefit to SH should Mercuira have hidden agenda of their own !!

aimo & dyor

Part 3 :

Given the abundance of low lying fruit on offer from BP net-zero ambitions, you could being to understand how this deal was firmly skewed towards Tailwind, esp the 28.9% voting rights. You wouldn't want any fly-by-night outfit or even a more respected NOC / IOC come knocking with the real chance of taking all the spoils. Blocking vote was therefore crucial, hence why there was no deal with Serica unless this was so.

aimo & dyor

Part 2 :

Now, I wonder, is a formal 'Strategic Agreement' between Serica (aka Meruria) and BP on the cards and possibly made public with RNS shortly after completion or they may decide to keep it sensitive !! An agreement that would allow Trojan Horse Serica to have 'first' option on NS fields ( inc Worldwide) that BP want to off-load in order to meet their very ambitious net zero targets. Using our innovative tried and tested BKR model, BP would 'officially' remove these assets from their portfolio, hence swiftly advancing their net zero goal, whilst still retaining sliding scale revenue of said fields for 4 - 5 years hence. Clearly, real benefits as shown by our own BKR styled deal will not be really evident until well past 18 month lock-up... oh hummm ! Advantage being for those not familiar with BKR, minimal upfront costs (£12.8 million) so able to more powder dry for longer for more deals ie no real need to take on 'formal' debt.

BP Quote : "We are targeting a 20% reduction in our aim 1 operational emissions by 2025 and will aim for a 50% reduction by 2030 against our 2019 baseline. The 2030 aim was updated from 30-35% to 50% in February 2022..."

More on how Lawson fit as deal facilitator : "In recent years, Lawson had a key role in shaping Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney's strategy to shift BP's focus away from oil and gas..". Now he's left BP, doesn't take much imagination to join the dots !

If there are such deals to be made, then given the timelines involved (commencing 1/1/22 as per locked box) then I'm sure deals have already been agreed, possibly just waiting for sign-off of Tailwind deal before announcement. Serica have all the moving parts within our current organisation to assimilate such deals, whereas Tailwind don't ... hence why the 'takeover'. Mercuria have the financial fire-power and people in the right places to execute these deals, for them, only to be bedded into a well oiled O&G company..... Serica !

So have SQZ (ACW et al) lost their minds, been offered certain 'benefits' or a much grander plan than detailed in the pathetic 23 pages circular is underway or combination of !! For me, there has to be a GRAND PLAN, just has to be proven !

Question is how this will translate into SP appreciation against backdrop of current and future headwinds. Well, if indeed deals are styled on BKR PSA (production sharing agreement) over 4 or 5 years as per BKR, very well imo

Fly in the ointment could be takeover of BP, which several analyst are saying is possible given value on offer with BP atm ..... Food for thought, Serica to takeover BP !!!! (lol) hahaha ....

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/business-news/business-financial-news/bps-longstanding-dealmaking-boss-lawson-leaves-for-mercuria

aimo & dyor