Member Info for NewKOTB

As with life, there are dependencies.

aimo & dyor

DBNO,

Does anyone really care !!!

I think >2.65% (of those notifiable >0.5%) is very significant for shorts given total daily average shares traded imo.

They are well in the money atm and would be viewing our results very closely and Hunt's budget too.

aimo & dyor

Before TW came along, I always thought Viaro could be a front-runner for SQZ .... !!

"Viaro at ‘very advanced stage’ of deal for ‘large’ North Sea production assets :
Viaro Energy’s buying spree shows no sign of letting up, with the company in the final phases of a deal for more North Sea fields .... at ‘very advanced stage’ of deal for ‘large’ North Sea production assets .."

Or maybe they still are.... !

aimo & dyor

flexmw,

"What’s your thoughts on the possible share price reaction on deal completion & the additional 111m shares being allocated?..."

Million ££ question, quite literally !

If our present SP (~260p) reflects the new deal (40% dilution + Debt + Cash Payment) atm in return for TW as is, then I would guess a tiny drop and subsequent recovery.
Mercuria via TW founders will be driving this forward now with Mitch as the nodding donkey and our op's guy. News-flow I'm sure will be more pro-active now and deal's will be done at lighting pace ( compared to old Serica ) could be a bumpy ride, so long as we don't drop back into the down channel we should be OK !! Although markets have their own way of working against PI's. Yes, I did add a few but holding back adding more atm to see mkt reaction to news.
At 260p would value us at ~£1bn post completion .... question is, is that fair valuation for NS producer with 40-50kboepd and estimated ~£400m (40% MCap) CoH. Either way, not long to find out .... atb

aimo & dyor

Next week we enter the month of March, stated as 'Expected date of Completion' month !

Sooner the better so we can then see how the SP (market) reacts to deal and we can all move forward.

Given recent uplift in TW production with Gannet GE-04 (~10,000 boepd) our TW locked box should hold significantly less net debt. With Brent Q1 average $82 barrel, conservative ~22kboepd over 60-90 days should see gross revenue of £90-£135 million ! How much of that will remain as net revenue, it's anyone's guess.

ps How ironic would it be for SQZ (aka Mercuria) to takeover Kistos and replace Mitch with AA !!

aimo & dyor

Now >50% off Aug 2022 (662p) high and RSI so low (20.2) I can hardly believe it.

SP Moves in large steps on very, very low volume, let the buying begin !

aimo & dyor

"I don’t know how some investors have been here for 5+years..", lol, if only that short !

Time is a concept that has no meaning for CHAR investors.

atb

LL,

Yes, indeed so ....

NBP is just twice that of the historic average and Brent is some 25% off last 2022 Q1's atm. More NS players are publicly coming out against the WFT, with Ping being the latest and the likes of HBR have been vocal for some time now. Also, Apache just cancelled drilling contracts, so even off-setting of drilling cost is still not enough for some. Added to which, I guess we will not see many 'hacks' or headline news reporting on O&G profits warnings and poor results with revenue crashing in coming months as quarterly / half yearly results for YoY start surfacing. Remember WFT only came into effect end of May 2022, so Q1 2022 and most of Q2 would have been WFT free. Gov knee-jerk response to the energy crisis has ensured the UK is now one of the most unstable economies for O&G investments, just think about that for a moment !

Brent ;
Q1 2022 : $102
Q1 2023 to-date : $82

NBP
Q1 2022 : 232p/therm
Q1 2023 to-date : 145p/therm

Something has to change, although I fear little will.

As for SQZ, one good to come out of the TW deal, SQZ will show substantial growth YoY 2023 vs 2022

aimo & dyor

ShortTracker only report on shorts >0.5%, so they could of just added another 0.02% to now appear on their tracker website.

What we need now is 'actual' production figures, not stupid, none standard metrics based on 'Net Production per '000 Shares' as per circular !

Tailwind touched 24,500 boe/d during December '22 so with +~10k boe/d that is some increase in net production ... but without real clarification of net production once GE-04 settles down it's still open to interpretation.

If TW are currently producing near 35.5kboepd and "Combined proforma net production forecast of 40,000 to 47,000 boe/d in 2023" ( as per circular) that means SQZ are producing what exactly atm, 4.5k - 11.5kboepd ? Op's update the other week has SQZ producing 23,727 net for Jan 2023 (FY 26,182boepd).

"combined net production rate of over 43,300 boe/d in January.... " add in 10kboepd, makes ~53kboepd atm

"Combined proforma net production forecast of 40,000 to 47,000 boe/d in 2023, 41,000 to 48,000 boe/d in 2024 and 42,000 to 49,000 boe/d in 2025..." , one would assume these figures need updating !

So clarification of combined net production is needed, although I guess that will appear at the same time as completion RNS but in the meantime >50kboepd will do for me.

PS Probably get news on N Eigg findings post drill within completion RNS too .

AIMO & DYOR

John Lennon was still making music ..... !

Fortunately this RNS is music to my ears, we have had very little to sing about of late.

aimo & dyor

You don't start a process to recover 129,400 carats if it was DUST ffs !!!

"... the deal sees Serica’s production profile grow to around 40,000 to 45,000 barrels of oil per day of production to Serica – EXCLUDING (my bold) volumes from new wells like Gannet – putting the London-listed firm among the top ten North Sea producers ..

Tailwind owns a 64.6% interest in Triton, which is operated by Dana Petroleum.

Flegg added: "Including the Tailwind Acquisition assets, we have an exciting investment programme of value-adding activities throughout 2023 and 2024 which has started with the Gannet GE-04 well being brought onto production...."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1006655/serica-energy-production-to-be-boosted-at-gannet-well-goes-online-1006655.html

Why the WFT is here to stay ..... pay for public sector budget deficit, not for Cost Of Living (energy bills) per se :

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/public-spending-pay-and-pensions (Key findings)

Added further +0.58% .... ;-)

KIST over the past few sessions have been under the cosh .... if Mercuria wants KIST ( or anyone else for that matter) they will play the SP down until they get the price they want ..... still 2-6 weeks before Mercuria have 'control', until then we wait !!!

On the plus-side, Mercuria will have the power, not just financial, to get the best deals they can for Serica / themselves.

PS. Don't think AA will Ben Dover as easily as our BoD and offer himself for the taking.

aimo & dyor

RSI never been so low since IPO ..... The PI who is selling, particularly in 5k & 10k lots needs to stop, on our volume it's killing the SP, let the SP recover then sell more, unless they got in at ~120p of course ! Charts not looking good at all due to this seller !!!

aimo & dyor

Just seen a Crowdstrike advert on mainstream TV ITV …. Would be nice to see DT too .

Will be a significant swing in notifiable interests and 'control' of Serica come completion ....

Of all the currently notifiable, only the Hardys and Blackrock will survive above 3% !

How it will look post completion :

Mercuria 25.2%
Hardys 6.4%
Blackrock 3.9%
Tailwind Founders 3.7%

Current : https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

aimo & dyor