Member Info for NewKOTB

More thoughts on hidden agenda.. Part 1 !!

Two new Mercuria NED's to join after completion ( with option for third ), one that interest me is Robert Lawson who officially joined Mercuira Dec 2022 as Executive Vice President and board member. So does beg the question, what advantage will Lawson bring to Mercuria on and above what they have now ? And why after just joining Mercuria was he immediately assigned as part of the deal to our board as non-executive director. Clearly Lawson was taken on specifically for the role at Serica ... WHY !!

I'm sure ACW has a 'friendship' with Robert Lawson too, built off their common BP ties, you only have the read ACW personal statement within deal announcement RNS where he refers to Robert as Rob !!

How will Lawson via Mercuira / BP add value to SQZ ? Remember BP's Looney have stated their green agenda, in order to execute this they would need to 'off-load' significant current O&G fast and in an controlled manner in order to meet their net zero targets. Ie Simple deal replication over multiple assets over multiple deals .... BKR repeated time and time again.

Lawson as head of BP M&A since Jul 2012 he would have been involved in both Erskine and esp BKR deal. His Linked-in page is interesting and he joined Mercuria in 2022 probably around June giving 6 months notice (circa 20/6/22). Now remind me when did we Serica shareholders get 'strongly' advised not to take any action... 12/7/22 regarding Kistos deal.... hummm !! We also know from locked box that this deal has been on the cards since 1/1/22.

I've already stated that Serica will become a Trojan Horse for Mercuira ( that for me is without question), in turn I believe Serica ( aka Mercuria) will take advantage of BP's net zero ambitions, given Mercuria's, as stated by Mitch, its "fire power" aided by Lawson !

More on this later with part 2 ...

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/robert-lawson-8451579
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/sustainability/getting-to-net-zero/five-aims-to-get-bp-to-net-zero

upomega,

"How i see this fwiw is that twelve months from now we will once again be debt free sitting on around five hundred milion cash with a market cap of between seven hundred and a billion...."

So basically you are saying the company will standstill for 12 months. Mcap of £700m-£1bn on new share capital would be between ~182p to 260p. Our CoH atm I estimate to be EoY + £16m = £476M as for debt free in 12 months .... if only !!

Yep, what a great deal you have managed for us SH's Mitch !!

aimo & dyor

First test of VWMA(20) since fall !

"They are now on notice poor performance and or broken promises around value and they will be out..! "

Only when their paymasters want it to be so ...... with 28.9% voting rights, Mitch could be gone in a flash, regardless !

Mercuria will be merciless, soon to be know as 'Mercuria The Merciless' .... Andy Bell being their number one target.

aimo & dyor

"Anyone know where all the director dealings RNS's are.."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/?filter=directors-dealings

That said, just checked back and David Latin did purchase post TW deal announcement, guess the 30/60 day financial results rule will now apply if not shortly!

"closed period" .... for deal and then for YE results too ..... so plenty of excuses for them NOT to put their hand in their pockets.

You are correct though, no greater show of commitment to the cause than buying shares with your own hard earned wonga ......Just like you, I and all others that have acquired shares, unless you just gormandize from the trough of bonus awards, DRIP's & LTIP's etc that is ! Maybe the whole board should follow the recent example of NED, David Latin.

NB: Don't think Mitch has ever purchased on the open market since 2014, although I may be wrong !!!

aimo & dyor

"If 6 p per share is only 16m then 36p a share is less than 100m.."

Sorry guys, not in a ~months time .... :-(

Guess Infor thinking is at 6p/s is the same or thereabouts as ~9p/s in old share capital as a gross value.

Question is, what would represent 'progressive dividend' as stated by Mitch in the presentation, gross dividend paid out (£) or price per share (p) .... !!!

Me, given promise of substantial revenue and an accretive deal plus the fact that Mercuria would want as much cash as possible, I would go for dividend well in excess of >17p/s for the year for sure.

aimo & dyor

"then within 12 months of 100% attributable revenue, Mitch gives away 40% of it to Mercuira. WTF !!!.."

Humm, come to think of it now, it appears as if Mercuira (as per locked box dates) had this deal sewn up at the exact moment Serica was about to receive 100% (1/1/22) of said revenue from BKR .... hummm !!!!

Fishy doesn't even cover it afaic.

aimo & dyor

Yep,

BKR was a RTO, think it was suspended for a week or so .... then opened and I remember thinking, wowww is that all the market thinks of this deal .... !!! We had to wait 5 years to start to see the real fruits of the deal .... then within 12 months of 100% attributable revenue, Mitch gives away 40% of it to Mercuira. WTF !!!

aimo & dyor

Whenever that may be ... we are told completion will be March !!

So, now my thoughts are turning to how Mr Market will react to the dilution of 40%, an additional 111m shares with control handed over to Mercuria and ~£61m cash in exchange for TW assets .... Will it instantly respond positively to having the deal complete or will the market, think, hang-on a minute .... whats going on here !!

How long for the promised 'accretive' part of the deal to show through ? We will of course have our own record-breaking YE results out soon afterwards as a boost and a trading update (inc CoH) on newly merged company.

Big question for me is : How long before another deal because this one alone won't cut it ?

Could be almost immediate or maybe several months away, mid-summer ... How bigger deal will this be, apéritif and simple taster menu on which to build upon as precursor to table d'hôte of major deals or Big Bang, eat as much as you like from the off !

All views welcome

AIMO & DYOR

Looks like BB want to pin it at ~10pt gain, same as yesterday

DTP,

"drive them out of the UK..."

Well, they are well on the way to doing that. Shell only have ~5% of their production in UK waters ... that will soon be ZERO by the look of it, with BP / Cnooc / Exxon etc following closely behind. Big players are not interested in marginal fields, with UK tax rate all NS fields have now become marginal !!!

I know I said BP assets will most likely be targeted by Mercuira ( opss ) sorry Serica, Shell maybe too, with opening its NS data-room last month, offers are expected to be in April.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/shell_selling_stakes_in_uk_north_sea_oil_fields-27-nov-2022-171172-article/

aimo & dyor

More Ammunition for Labour, BBC et al ....

"Shell sets new record as annual profits more than double to $40bn .." of course all £68.1bn profit will be glossed over as being World wide ..... these headwinds are more of a Category 6 hurricane ... !!!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-profits-soar-53-record-073056496.html

BB,

"It's well hidden at the moment..."

Agree, no matter how it's dressed up or what part of the deal you look at, there are questions to be asked, with very little in the way of positivity in return. Mr Market thinks the same too ! God, this had better be the precursor to major re-rate Mitch.

aimo & dyor

"Wonder whether that was a DT share buyback at 16:35 for 1,434,962 shares?...." NO

Google UT (uncrossed trades).

atb

BB,

Thanks, what will be will be !!

Another little niggle which I have never seen before in any deal is the payment that has been agreed to be then subjected to an additional interest charges over prolonged period ....

SPA Page 16, Part 1 / 1.1 : A cash payment on Completion of approximately £58.7 million ....

WHICH IS THEN :

"Subject to adjustments including to apply interest to the cash consideration from the locked box date to Completion and to deduct any leakage....... estimated to be £61 million, once interest of 4 per cent per annum is applied to the headline cash consideration of £58,650,000 from the locked-box date to the expected date of Completion"

Which I estimate to be ~12 months of interest, so T&C's take advantage of the locked box for ~12 month term. This locked box is mightily opaque.... !!

aimo & dyor

If so, DT should sue for brand damage ...

See they are having another go .....

Http://qcmfundlanding.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/QCM-follow-up-response-to-DT.pdf

All questions are based on historic events pre IPO so don't think DT will even bother to reply, there is however one question that may be cause for alarm imo. Appears to me as if there was a rouge trader which if so DT just need to explain they had no mutually beneficial connect with them.

aimo & dyor