Member Info for NewKOTB

Only need to see what a +ve RNS on progression of farm-out can do, where little to no value built into SP.

CHAR & JOG both in similar position, stranded known significant proven reserves, ready market, minimal risk for extraction, plenty of upside, partnering process on-going for some time but with little to no news. Added to which the fiscal environment some would say is even better for CHAR with 10 year tax free holiday.

Just need THAT partner so we can pass GO and collect £200....

aimo & dyor

The weirdest transaction of the day ....so far !

Date Time Price Currency Volume TradeValue Tradetype Tradeflag VenueOfPublication MIC
03.04.23 08:28:21 233.80 GBX 1 3.27 Off-Book P ECEU SINT

Bit of a gap up this morning ... :-(

aimo & dyor

FWIW, Serica had better not be looking at acquiring / farming-in to JOG (GBA licences), not that it wouldn't be a great deal in the long run, just not now we have Mercrica calling the shots. Much prefer instantly accretive deals and at very least, right now ones away from NS for sure.

High CapEx with debt to get to first oil then serious FCF thereafter .... however, 'thereafter' will probably be once SQZ is 100% owned by Mercuria.... all part of their plan, could well be !!

Given our "Long stop date for Completion" of TW deal being last working day of April, (28 April 2023) and JOG's exclusivity period until 30th April 2023 .... is that pure coincidence, hummm !!

PS, If JOG is to be 'partnered' by SQZ then why did we need Mercuria onboard, no reason why a deal couldn't have been struck with JOG last year. What will Mercuria specifically bring to the deal ?

Flexmw, as you mentioned, not many "significant UK North Sea operators" to pick from.

aimo & dyor

"Labour have announced they will insulate 19 million homes as part of a "national mission" to reduce energy bills and make the UK more energy independent.." ..... lol, by taxing out of existence all domestic supply from NS.

It's really getting ridiculous that Labour can tell lie after lie and get away with it as uninformed Joe 'n' Joanne Public suck it up as the truth ! .... talk about Putin brain-washing Russian population !

Guess Hunt has backed himself into a corner now and any amendment to improve revenue for NS players will be met with a barrage of Labour criticism. Hunt will have to 'prove' need for energy security, that profits are no longer windfall and energy security is paramount with jobs being lost, it's cheaper to use domestic supply than import higher priced supply with subsequent damaging carbon footprint.

Really struggling to see decent SP appreciation without EPL being eased or a mega deal, improved dividend is all we can hope for atm, even that is questionable imo.

aimo & dyor

For the record :

Shareholder No. of ordinary shares Percentage of voting rights
Mercuria (via UBS)* 96,618,142 25.35
Mr D and Mrs D Hardy** 29,319,511 7.69
BlackRock*** 16,918,993 4.44
Hargreaves Landsdown Asset Management 14,096,848 3.70
abrdn 12,993,832 3.41
JPMorgan Asset Management 12,968,402 3.40
AXA Framlington**** 12,658,719 3.32
Directors 7,655,354 2.01
* 2.9 million Consideration Shares will not be issued until the expiry of certain warranty periods at which time Mercuria will hold approximately 25.2% holding in the Company.
** Private client holdings
*** 0.46% of the voting rights held by via a CFD position
**** Holding includes AXA Framlington Investment Managers and other AXA entities.

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 28 February 2023 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 23 March 2023, the Company had 381,152,452 ordinary shares in issue of which 27.36% is not held in public hands.

Actually not sure given last know holding and this RNS what JPM resulting holding is ... could just be notification of adjustment plus correction of holding % as result of the additional shares issued.

Afaik, on 10th Feb they held ~13,578,657 4.92%, on SQZ site shows currently as 12,968,402 3.40%, RNS states falling from 5.139633% to sub notification threshold but no actual 'Total number of voting rights held in issuer' !!!

Up-shot being they could of added too even though fallen below new threshold notification level !

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

aimo & dyor

BB,

No one is sure what the Hardy's voted ..... with 42m voting AGAINST, the Hardys with their ~30m could of voted against too.

Should we get an RNS announcing Hardy's reduction then SH should take note.

aimo & dyor

Also reducing ..... show massive confidence in deal .... LOL, Not !!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/holdings-in-company-33mkula485vsuih.html

It's confirmed, Mercuria now hold 25.35% of Serica !!!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/holdings-in-company-dma0z9ky8e72w6t.html

How Mercuria must be loving this deal .......

aimo & dyor

"to offer" .... !!!

That reads to me as if it's still under negotiation as to the specified “normal” to be used or more strings attached to the 'offer' ?

UK Gov have 'offered' & UK O&G have rejected their 'offer' !

aimo & dyor

Be interesting to see what companies the likes of Ed, et al (Labour) & family are invested in within their personal SIPP / PEP / ISA / Stocks etc and how they view being paid dividends from these dirty, thieving, back-stabbing, profiteering O&G companies .... guess they will not make that public. Probably will be busy loading up at these low prices then once in power ( looking likely atm ) or the time is right .... oh, as if by magic Labour claim, WFT is no longer needed, energy security is crucial, stocks soar !!!

aimo & dyor

See Malcy made a long and detailed comment on our deal completing (not) :

"Nothing further to add to this, the deal is completed and the new company will be a challenging beast in the industry. "

Added to the equally long and detailed coverage back in Feb ;

"Completion should also rest easy any market concerns about the deal and I would expect a well deserved rally in SQZ shares."

https://www.malcysblog.com/?s=serica

Unusually restrained from making any real comment on this deal ever since first announced in December, gagging ordered maybe, or don't want to be made to look foolish !! (lol)

aimo & dyor

LOL, so no mention of the fact inflation is higher in UK than France, Germany, US even Italy and interest rates highest since 2009 that's the primary cause or how Labour will reduce both to ease Cost Of Living .... nah, just select the easiest target for the popular votes as Labour have no answer on either inflation or interest rates.

See, Ed'less is now pedaling "foreign-owned" !!!! lol

aimo & dyor

Yep, news appearing everywhere on gov amending WFT .

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-government-expected-to-offer-energy-companies-windfall-tax-relief-ft-9g1iz3dj1qk77v9.html

I'm sure there has been an army of mathematicians presenting figures for both side, lets hope that reason prevails and we get a decent, pro energy security price floor.

NBP Average :
Q1 2022 - 233p/therm
Q1 2023 - 134p/therm

BRENT Average :
Q1 2022 - $102
Q1 2023 - $82

aimo & dyor

Woww, 3 years between posts and suddenly you are the fount of all knowledge, or somekindofnut !

Numerous posters over many months have offered their opinion on in's & out's of this deal and not least the shenanigans of last summer, me more than most. Duff deal or not, it's up to Mitch to prove us doubters wrong and fast... 'water under the bridge' and all that.

aimo & dyor

PS You have an unfortunate Username, thought mine was bad !

Norma,

TW (Mercuria's) modus operandi was to take-on debt and pay high yields, SQZ modus operandi was to have zero debt and pay conservative yields, let's see which way the wind blows on this one. As for balloon, any increase in debt will not be well received by the market particularity given the cash generated, all hinges on the details / terms on how SQZ's next acquisitions are financed. You can be almost 100% certain it will not be with SQZ shares in any shape or form that will compromise Mercuria's hold on SQZ so that leaves cash / debt / PSA.

I have previously posted my thoughts on the 'style' I would expect / hope to see SQZ move forward with in terms of acquisitions .

Over to Mitch & Co now to prove which side one's bread is buttered.

aimo & dyor

For balance SQZ have stated, "execute further acquisitions and make sustained cash returns to shareholders.."

All eyes on dividend policy and actual returns / yield, but for me their next move into acquisitions has to signal a real game changer that will restore my confidence here offering substantial growth opportunity for our SP.

aimo & dyor

Norma,

Afternoon,

"they’re always guilty before the chance to prove their innocence...." maybe so, however ....

They could have stated Offtake Agreement was concluded on more favourable terms than the one it replaces, didn't need company sensitive information, just direction would have done. Instead they cover their rears by shifting onus (excuse) to others, "The directors consider, having consulted with the Company's Nominated Adviser, Peel Hunt, that the terms of the revised Offtake and Marketing Agreement are fair and reasonable insofar as the Company's shareholders are concerned..."

For me, this has already started to play out as expected, Mitch & Co are just puppets to the puppet Master, Mercuria. Just my view, fwiw. atb

aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"At the current rate debt will be clear at the end of year.."

Not a chance imo, if anything set to balloon.

OLD SQZ debt adverse, NEW SQZ (Mercuria) ....let's see shall we !

aimo & dyor

Offtake and Marketing Agreement .... stitch-up Number 1 !!!

aimo & dyor