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Yeah not sure about "less due diligence" when spending $100-200m Simms!
In any case I expect the tweet is just to let people know that there are new parties entering the process as negotiations are continuing with those that have already conducted site visits. My guess is we'll get a binding offer from one of these parties within the next few months, then that will put a fire under the other interested parties and we'll get a few counter offers.
Remember MC is confident that the sales process will be concluded this year and he is involved at every level.
It is highly likely the assets will be sold, the only questions are for what price and how much gets returned to share holders.
From my communications with MC the sales process appears to be progressing well. From the sounds of things, MC is running the sales process as much as Hannam. Perhaps we will get news in the near future of further site visits leading up to a binding offer. I can only imagine that 3+ site visits proceeding to a binding offer would do wonders to bid up binding offers, but that's just my opinion. In any event, I believe MC is still confident that the sales process will be concluded this year, but as always I encourage every investor that has reasonable questions to email him as he always responds promptly.
This has been a long road for everyone involved, and now we have a glimpse of the finish line perhaps everyone involved just wants this to finally reach a satisfactory conclusion. If/WHEN we do see an RNS stating that a binding offer has been received, I can only imagine the relief we will all feel!!
Johngle, we know that Hannam are indeed running the sales process to a schedule but that schedule is confidential. They will not let the process go on indefinitely. I would guess that we will know one way or the other by Q4 (within three months), but we'll see I guess.
The $628M NPV and IRR 74% at $2,000/oz figure include the two feeder pits and 1.2M oz under the La India pit in the mine plan. This scenario is not covered by the BFS so to a less degree of certainty, but the point is made that there is clearly a lot of proven value here. Even taking the BFS scenario, for $106M capex and 12-18 months build time, you produce 82,000 oz for the first six years with AISC of $1,039. That's $75M a year profit at $1,950, capex recouped after 18 months of production leaving $337M profit for the remaining 4.5 years. Then you add the remaining LOM and that's assuming you do nothing with the underground or feeder pits. As I said, there is a lot of value here and I cannot believe an acceptable binding offer wouldn't be reached that accounts for the huge upside potential.
I'm not so sure Jim would take this private though, I think Condor was his speculation play that the financial system would go to hell and gold would soar. Clearly that was a wrong call (I also thought the same, hence my time here) so even if it does happen in the future I don't think he has the appetite to become a gold producer and this mine must be built now, so he will sell it and continue the gold play somewhere else.
As ever, we will see.
There are clearly many PIs that have lost faith with the management, unfairly so I would argue. You may disagree with Marks decisions over the years, but the FACTS are that Mark and team have proven up a resource with $400m+ NAV without excessively diluting existing share holders and through a 12 year bear market in gold (equities) and very difficult market conditions. Yes, it would have been lovely if investor capital was flowing into gold explorers like they were tech/crypto/AI stocks but that wasn't the case and we all have to take responsibility for investing in the WRONG SECTOR over this period. There is no way I'm going to accept PIs blaming the management team of Condor for their own mistake, we all bloody well own it.
Right now Condor has received five non-binding offers. Three site visits have been conducted with the visiting teams recommending in progressing to a purchase of the assets. Just one offer needs to be converted to a binding offer and we can conclude our time here and put the rest down to experience.
Personally I do not believe that Mark or Jim will try to screw investors out of the proceeds of the sale but let's not jump unfounded accusations out of frustration. We will cross that bridge if and when we come to it.
Yep, and he also states that Jim will not let the asset go cheap. So if he's "very confident" that the asset will get sold this year, and it's not going cheap, then I think it's safe to say that the non-binding offers are in the ball park of Jim's target price.
Indeed DDD, cant blame them for trying to make a market - it cannot be an easy job with this share!
LTHs understand the actual value here. MC has said repeatedly that he does expect a deal to be concluded this year, six months have gone, six months left (a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things). Things are happening in the background, we just need that first binding offer to drop.
Exactly Simms, things are happening and Condor (or the assets) will be sold. It will just come down to price and final legal DD. My advice to other investors is to ignore the share price in the interim (or use it as an opportunity to average down).
That is completely untrue "BenBen88", regulated companies must release news publicly (via RNS) that will have a material impact on the share price, but there is much beyond this that anyone can learn that affects an investment decision by speaking directly to the management team of a company.
You have provided zero value here since you started posting, jog on.
Johngle I asked him if he could confirm how many companies have conducted site visits, or plan to that he is aware of, and whether he was still confident that the sales process would be wrapped up this year. I was very encouraged by his prompt answer, but I do not have his permission to share his comments so I won't re-post here.
If you're curious you can always email him at mchild@condorgold.com.
I agree EL. Funny because I communicated with MC yesterday and as far as I'm concerned the sales process is going extremely well, though perhaps a tad slower than I would have liked. But hey, it is what it is, we can't very well order potential buyers to "hurry up and make an extremely generous binding offer because nervous PIs are getting impatient" now can we?!
I honestly don't understand why people would rather post conjecture on here than talk to the man himself...
I think you guys should re-watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMEX1ApmbbQ
Mark said he hoped that there would be a binding offer before the summer months, he didn't commit to it. These things take time, in fact the interviewer asked Mark would a deal be done this year so clearly he didn't think it would get wrapped up quickly (incidentally Mark responded with a strong yes). Just because a binding offer hasn't arrived yet does not in any way mean one won't appear, and it does not mean things aren't happening behind the scenes. Mark said in the interview that one of the interested parties has engaged an investment bank and lawyers, and what's that old saying... "you don't put on a rubber unless you want to $£%^!!". So rest assured this is happening, it just takes time to get things aligned.
Mark also said in the interview that he effectively gave the minister of mines reassurance that the sales process would guarantee a mine would be built, emphasising that the government strategy is to double the national gold production over the next 5 years. That does not sound to me like there is any path to walk away from this process without a deal to build the mine, and given what happened at the end of last year I really don't think the ministry would be happy with Condor taking on the build themselves. I believe that "reassurance" Mark referred to, was to sell the assets to a producer that could build the mine and start producing quickly.
I also believe that the company will be sold at the end of this sales process as Jim wants an exit (Mark has mentioned this offhand in a few interviews), and selling the company now is his best (and really his only) chance at getting his money back (with a decent chance of making a nice wedge on top). The wind is currently in Condor's favour (high gold price, m&a on the increase, etc) so it is now or never. I cannot believe Jim wants to keep his money tied up here for another 5 years and being on the hook for the mine build overrunning.
Yes the waiting is excruciating, but if it's this bad for us how bad do you think it is for Mark? He wants it done and dusted I'm sure, but he's got one chance to do this right and I'm sure he's going to do everything in his power to get the best price.
So keep calm and carry on, hold the line, and don't panic. And have a nice sunny weekend!
The move from 15-34p back in April/May saw much higher daily volume than we are currently seeing, yet the price is moving further on lower volume. Perhaps all those willing to sell their open offer shares at sub-30p have now done so and the MMs are being forced to up the bid.
Was this the interview that some deramper said MC didn't sound confident?! He sounded pretty confident to me!
Note at 21:50 he says "our preference, and we think the right thing for all the shareholders, is to get an exit as long as the price is correct". This confirms to me that basically Jim wants an exit and therefore the project will sell if a reasonable binding offer is made. I think it is highly unlikely that the project won't sell, given the current gold price and increasing m&a in the sector. Jim and Mark are savvy individuals and they know how to deal, they won't let it go too cheaply but also they are not unrealistic in their expectations.
A deal will be made, the price is dependent on current market conditions which look very positive.
Tbh watching the GILT yields/SONIA swap rates explode is far more interesting that condor right now! If Condor is sold then that would line up nicely with the ongoing house price crash!!