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Definitely an order being filled, look at all the 25k (and 2x12.5k seconds apart) trades today, these trades started appearing last Monday at the recent bottom of 22.3p, then continued last week and into this week and we currently sit at 28.40p.
Once the first binding offer comes in then I think the volume will really pick up and drive the share price quickly up to at least match the offer, though it could go higher in anticipation of subsequent higher offers. I think the first binding offer will be much higher than LTIs here suspect, as a binding offer will need to be realistic such that the board will accept it, I'm talking at least $200M (~90p).
The geo-political movements currently happening are causing other countries to diversify away from dollars, driving the gold price higher, and inflation is pushing up producers costs and making some larger, lower grade projects uneconomical. It is looking like the proverbial stars have aligned and I think that will be reflected in the amounts offered. Also Mark has been looking very pleased in recent interviews and I very much doubt he would be happy with anything less than £1.50 a share...
I follow you Punter, the original RNS which announced the sell talks about selling "the assets", and does indeed list each of the resources. Clearly the other resources can be expanded with some additional drilling so I have no doubt Mark will seek to get a fair price for them that takes this into account. I do not believe any of that is included in the NPV estimations currently. We could all be pleasantly surprised!
Punter La India is only one of many concessions that Condor owns (100% of might I add) that have a defined resource, also Mestiza, America, Central Breccia, Cacao, San Lucas and Cristalito Tatescame. Plus all the other concessions that do not have defined resources but for which airborne geophysics and possibly some of which have had soil sampling done.
Only LA India itself was included in the FS, but the previous PFS also included the Mestiza and America open pits. So you see the potential here, why would anyone buy just La India by itself? That would not make sense to me.
Also what good is La India without the rest of the land package? 2m oz (inferred) doesn't provide for any exploration upside and all the indications are la India is sitting on a high grade gold district. I can't believe that a large gold producer would look at saving $50-100m by leaving the rest of condor's assets on the table. Full company takeover is the most likely outcome in my mind.
Punter even if the warrants are exercised at sale, the cash raised as a result will stay on the balance sheet so it's not a straight "asset value / shares in issue" calculation. I think any additional dilution due to warrants will likely work out as a wash in terms of affect on share price.
Hi Frenchie, yes I have the order book but tbh it's pretty useless since the way AIM trades is via the SEAQ system and so the orders on the order book are just blocks from the various market makers and do not correlate to the trades that get booked (compared to the main LSE market that uses the SETS system and does show you the actual orders).
This is a useful explanation: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/understanding-the-market/sets-and-seaq/
I think it's a tad harsh to call Seingred a deramper, after many years of posting here he clearly has a more sceptical view on Condor which is fine, and indeed this view has borne out over the years if one looks at the share price alone. IMO the problem with this view is that it discounts the value of the assets as per the rest of the market. You make money by buying undervalued assets and selling them for a higher price, which is I think the reason many of us got into Condor in the first place, and have stayed in it for so long! It is indisputable that the market has and still does undervalue this company, and the management having tried over the years to get the market to re-rate the share price ultimately have realised this and are now determined to see that value realised in the sale of the assets. Whether that strategy succeeds we will see.
Personally, I gave up hope of the market re-rating us many years ago so was happy for management to proceed to production which would either see that re-rate happen or at least receive divis. Now though I am happy with the current strategy as there are some signs that we could actually see a decent reward by selling the assets now. No-one knows how this will play out, so place your bets gentlemen.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4589497-first-majestic-silver-jerritt-canyon-mining-suspended
"Taking into account the acquisition price of $470M, accumulated mine operating losses of $130, and capital spending of $270M the total cost to First Majestic Silver so far amounts to $870M"
Good god, and people moan about MC!! How the hell is Keith Neumeyer still in a job?! Actually I know why, it's because FM is a meme stock thanks to KN's public profile and "silver to the moon" interviews. Hence why the stock has bounced 20% from the low set last Tuesday.
Some interesting info regarding Jerritt Canyon in that analysis though:
"Jerritt Canyon is not a simple operation in terms of mining as well as processing. The remaining resources require rather costly underground mining techniques, a large portion of the resources are located below the water table and dewatering is an issue. However, perhaps most importantly, the sulfide ore at Jerritt Canyon is complex and requires a roaster to process. This operation includes one of only three operating roasters in Nevada, the other two are owned by i-80 Gold (IAUX) and Nevada Gold Mines, the JV between Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM)."
All goes to highlight how valuable Condor's assets are, given 91%+ recovery rates using the standard Carbon-in-Pulp cyanidation process. No roaster needed here! I reiterate that FM should have bought Condor back in March 2021 for $100M - they could have built the mine before inflation drove costs up and been producing 100koz easily by now.
DDD remember the upside case doesn't include the value of the entire land package/exploration upside. But I'd be *very* happy with £1.50 a share!! That would certainly more than compensate me for my time invested here! But there's many a slip bewixt cup and lip, let's not count our chickens just yet...
Punter yes that comment was historic I think, basically declaring the end of the US/Western financial empire. Gold will certainly be a cornerstone of their new economic system. I'm unsure how western stock markets will fare in the transition (e.g. will investors in gold companies be able to redeem that value of will stock markets close, capital gains tax cancel out gains, etc), but I think anyone in the west is insane not to have some exposure to gold.
Seingred conserving cash will do nothing for them, they are a mining company with tiny margins on their current silver mines and after the Jerritt Canyon debaucle, little prospects to improve their margins. So, they can either pray for silver prices to go through the roof or they need to acquire some assets that will ensure the future of their business now. Shareholders will not tolerate them sitting on their hands, conserving cash, whilst they are bleeding their current reserves. They will absolutely be looking at assets that they can acquire cheaply that will provide them with a reasonable path to grow production and reserves. Condor is a no-brainer for them, they are a shareholder so they are already familiar with our assets, know the management and have done due diligence on the company. Whether or not they end up buying our asset it makes perfect sense for them to take part in the process. I suspect they are one of the companies that have signed an NDA.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582989-first-majestic-silvers-financial-health-deteriorating-rapidly
"First Majestic acquired the Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine from Sprott Mining Inc. on April 30, 2021, at a price tag of $470 million (in shares of First Majestic), and it has proven to be a costly, highly dilutive acquisition with few benefits.
For full-year 2022, Jerritt Canyon produced gold at an AISC of $2,865oz, which is simply not profitable or sustainable with gold at $1,800/oz. While costs came down slightly in Q4 2022, this is well above the company’s 2023 guidance, which called for costs to fall between $1,733 - $1,842/oz."
They should have bought condor for $100m and built the mine for another hundy mil, they'd be producing 100k+ oz per year at under $1000 per oz AISC.
Seingred you're talking about a mining company! First majestic make barely any margin on their silver production (~$2 per ounce!). They desperately need some decent high grade, low cost resources that can generate positive cash flow asap, or they could be in real trouble. Personally I think they'll be taking a very close look at our assets right about now...