Member Info for nero120

Indeed DDD, cant blame them for trying to make a market - it cannot be an easy job with this share!

LTHs understand the actual value here. MC has said repeatedly that he does expect a deal to be concluded this year, six months have gone, six months left (a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things). Things are happening in the background, we just need that first binding offer to drop.

Exactly Simms, things are happening and Condor (or the assets) will be sold. It will just come down to price and final legal DD. My advice to other investors is to ignore the share price in the interim (or use it as an opportunity to average down).

Seingred is that your way of saying "I've never once contacted the CEO of this company despite having been posting here for many years"?! ;)

That is completely untrue "BenBen88", regulated companies must release news publicly (via RNS) that will have a material impact on the share price, but there is much beyond this that anyone can learn that affects an investment decision by speaking directly to the management team of a company.

You have provided zero value here since you started posting, jog on.

Johngle I asked him if he could confirm how many companies have conducted site visits, or plan to that he is aware of, and whether he was still confident that the sales process would be wrapped up this year. I was very encouraged by his prompt answer, but I do not have his permission to share his comments so I won't re-post here.

If you're curious you can always email him at mchild@condorgold.com.

I agree EL. Funny because I communicated with MC yesterday and as far as I'm concerned the sales process is going extremely well, though perhaps a tad slower than I would have liked. But hey, it is what it is, we can't very well order potential buyers to "hurry up and make an extremely generous binding offer because nervous PIs are getting impatient" now can we?!

I honestly don't understand why people would rather post conjecture on here than talk to the man himself...

I think you guys should re-watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMEX1ApmbbQ

Mark said he hoped that there would be a binding offer before the summer months, he didn't commit to it. These things take time, in fact the interviewer asked Mark would a deal be done this year so clearly he didn't think it would get wrapped up quickly (incidentally Mark responded with a strong yes). Just because a binding offer hasn't arrived yet does not in any way mean one won't appear, and it does not mean things aren't happening behind the scenes. Mark said in the interview that one of the interested parties has engaged an investment bank and lawyers, and what's that old saying... "you don't put on a rubber unless you want to $£%^!!". So rest assured this is happening, it just takes time to get things aligned.

Mark also said in the interview that he effectively gave the minister of mines reassurance that the sales process would guarantee a mine would be built, emphasising that the government strategy is to double the national gold production over the next 5 years. That does not sound to me like there is any path to walk away from this process without a deal to build the mine, and given what happened at the end of last year I really don't think the ministry would be happy with Condor taking on the build themselves. I believe that "reassurance" Mark referred to, was to sell the assets to a producer that could build the mine and start producing quickly.

I also believe that the company will be sold at the end of this sales process as Jim wants an exit (Mark has mentioned this offhand in a few interviews), and selling the company now is his best (and really his only) chance at getting his money back (with a decent chance of making a nice wedge on top). The wind is currently in Condor's favour (high gold price, m&a on the increase, etc) so it is now or never. I cannot believe Jim wants to keep his money tied up here for another 5 years and being on the hook for the mine build overrunning.

Yes the waiting is excruciating, but if it's this bad for us how bad do you think it is for Mark? He wants it done and dusted I'm sure, but he's got one chance to do this right and I'm sure he's going to do everything in his power to get the best price.

So keep calm and carry on, hold the line, and don't panic. And have a nice sunny weekend!

The move from 15-34p back in April/May saw much higher daily volume than we are currently seeing, yet the price is moving further on lower volume. Perhaps all those willing to sell their open offer shares at sub-30p have now done so and the MMs are being forced to up the bid.

Tempted to agree Simms. I expect it's just some buying in anticipation of a binding offer, nothing definite yet. We continue to wait...

Was this the interview that some deramper said MC didn't sound confident?! He sounded pretty confident to me!

Note at 21:50 he says "our preference, and we think the right thing for all the shareholders, is to get an exit as long as the price is correct". This confirms to me that basically Jim wants an exit and therefore the project will sell if a reasonable binding offer is made. I think it is highly unlikely that the project won't sell, given the current gold price and increasing m&a in the sector. Jim and Mark are savvy individuals and they know how to deal, they won't let it go too cheaply but also they are not unrealistic in their expectations.

A deal will be made, the price is dependent on current market conditions which look very positive.

Tbh watching the GILT yields/SONIA swap rates explode is far more interesting that condor right now! If Condor is sold then that would line up nicely with the ongoing house price crash!!

Personally I don't think potential bidders will pay much attention to the share price. There is no real market price discovery at work since the share is so illiquid and the MMs are in full control of where the price goes, so there is little connection with the share price to the company and it's assets IMO. If a bidder does not believe that then go ahead and try and buy shares in large volume on the open market and watch what happens to the share price. It's basically akin to bidding for a private company, the "valuation" holds little value - each bidder will do their own due diligence and come up with their own valuation based on the company and it's assets.

Typical frustrations whilst we wait for news, and the accompanying extreme bullishness/bearishness that comes with it. Remember, JM wants an exit so Condor will be bought, the only question is price. ISA you were frustrated that you couldn't sell a few, just think how JM (and other large holders) must feel! If they want to see their cash again anytime soon then they need to sell to a bidder. With numerous interested parties the market will find the right price, it just takes some time. Patience.

5.5% would be £1.26 by those numbers, which equates to a market cap of around US$300m.

Weak hands folding, nothing changed here.

Frenchie I did that, it doesn't really work with AIM.

Pleased to see some bids returning today. Would be great if we can finish the week in the green (above 33.8p) to keep our winning streak going for another week at least (that would make it the 5th green week in a row, and six green weeks in the last seven).

Just goes to show Condor is still flying well under the radar, which means that either it always will and the share price will never reflect full value, or that if/when the herd arrives the share price could absolutely rocket.

Volume is much lower today than previously so until a RNS drops and brings in new bids we will settle at these levels I expect.

They tried to sell the company back around 2015 but it just demonstrated how bad the market for juniors was back then, especially with the gold price in the toilet. Excellent drill results was doing little to increase the share price, and I think (I'm guessing) JM back then didn't really want to single-handedly fund a risky gold exploration company but he was locked in and unless he wanted to lose his existing investment there was little to be done but commit fully and plough ahead.

They then changed strategy to derisking and building a mine (rather than drilling and expanding the resource) as that (so they thought) was the only way to unlock shareholder value given market conditions.

My question is whether they would have gone ahead with the financing if the sanctions had not dropped last year, or having realised the M&A market had actually improved they would have instead put the company up for sale. Given the history I suspect the latter.

ICB I agree with that 100%. Explorers are not miners, but the market has been a ****-show for exploration companies over the past decade sadly. Under better conditions, Condor would have done extremely well in much less time, as it has been well run given all the surrounding challenges IMO.