Member Info for nero120

I disagree, I think JM wants an exit now and that means the company will be sold. I do not believe they will go back to attempting to raise capital to build the mine, given that now is a great time to sell (gold price at $2k, majors cash rich and looking to acquire to replenish depleting resources) and the idea of another 5+ years of hard, risky work does not really appeal to them after putting so much blood and energy into Condor over the years.

However, that doesn't mean they will let it go on the cheap. Mark has said repeatedly that the key to unlocking higher valuations is competitive bidding, and that he believes they now have those conditions given the number of non-binding offers and site visits. We will see. As I said, we are now waiting for the first binding offer as that will get the bidding process going, then we will see if a counter binding offer appears shortly after. If it does, then we can certainly expect the higher valuations to be unlocked.

Current mcap is £62M. Condor's highest mcap was £70M in May 2021, and (recent) lowest was £25M in late Dec 2021. So at least in mcap terms we've pretty much recovered, in fact we're much higher than pre-2021 averages. In June 2019 we got down to £12.5M!! So all things considered, we're not doing too badly at all.

However the market is (typically with us) not pricing in any upside here whatsoever, so I guess we are going to churn around these levels until news drops. If that news is a binding offer at a much higher valuation then trading levels can be expected to reset higher.

The big question remains, at what valuation will the first binding offer place us at; will it match the market's current valuation (~£60M) or if higher by how much?

Indeed Simms, if you could just move in and out of shares picking up compounding divi yields then everyone would do it!

I would avoid consumer-based equities and hold industrials with pricing power, as I believe inflation is here for the long term and western economies are in dire straits and have no hope of turning themselves around for the foreseeable future. BHP looks attractive if you believe we are entering a commodity bull market. Entering a decent buying range as commodity prices have pulled back some, 9% divi yield.

I may continue to hold some major goldies but their underperformance when not in a storming bear market it just dire, and the timing of it is just too difficult to call. I've learned my lesson after 12 years here!

Hmm not particularly interesting yet ISA, slow and steady progress. The MMs are still trying to fill that order as we're still seeing lots of batch trades, e.g.:

24-Apr-23 12:48:54 35.40 25,000 Buy* 34.50 35.50 8,850 O
24-Apr-23 12:48:41 35.40 25,000 Buy* 34.50 35.50 8,850 O
24-Apr-23 12:47:47 35.40 20,000 Buy* 34.50 35.50 7,080 O

So they're only letting us rise slowly as far as they can. Volume is good so as long as it stays around 500k per day we should continue to move up steadily. However if volume jumps to 2m+ per day then it's really going to force the MMs to raise the bid, though I suspect we're going to need to see an RNS with a binding offer at a substantial premium to sp to see that kind of volume.

Don't think I've ever seen a chart like todays, every trade flat on 34p from 12:00!

Whilst that's true Connect, as we are currently witnessing it is very difficult to acquire a substantial holding at these levels. LTH tend to have much larger positions, so we may reap a much larger reward if all goes to plan and the company is bought so substantially more than current levels - and also gives us a means of exiting these larger positions. So these traders jumping in an out with a profit is fine, but that was not the reason why many LTHs bought in (and I'm assuming that is also true of you).

I got a quote to sell 105,000 shares at 34.1p!! Haha they must be desperate, couldn't even get a quote to sell 10,000 back in the dark days of Jan.

Yep they've pushed the ask up over 34p to try and shake a few more shares free. They'll keep doing this gradually all the way up until either that big order is filled or they capitulate.

And we're off! So far a few small sells and a much larger buy, how are the MMs going to fill that huge background order with only a few shares drip feeding back into the market?! Gonna have to push that ask up boys, or you're gonna have a very unhappy customer!

A finish today above 35p should be achievable.

Even if sleepy demented joe the hoe does announce more sanctions, they will be against individuals not the gold sector as a whole. The market has already seen this and how it was a non-event, business as usual. Future similar sanctions are now priced in, so unlikely to have such a dramatic effect on share prices.

LTHs cancel your stops!!

https://www.simplertrading.com/blog/trading-tips-strategies/wrong-side-of-a-buy-out-caught-in-market-manipulation/

They better hope they can fill that order before big news drops, otherwise they will be in trouble!

What happens when a binding offer drops? Bids will flood in and what will the MMs do? They are going to have to raise the ask far higher to get anyone to part with their shares!

So it seems with a fair wind we could see the first binding offer drop before the summer? Many have said that the offers cannot reasonably be much higher than the current market cap, which I have struggled to accept. Hannam's sale prospectus sent to interested parties quoted a base case NPV of US$302M and an upside case NPV of US$418M at $1,700/oz - how does this correspond to a current market cap of US$75M?!

I will be interesting to see which of the two the first binding offer is closer to!

Gold took a massive dump down to $1988 so that probably has something to do with it. Volume today was higher than the average daily volume for last week though, interest few trades going in to the close:

16:30:17 - 66,666 @ 32.00p
16:19:50 - 66,666 @ 32.00p
16:19:41 - 62,151 @ 32.00p
16:19:25 - 60,000 @ 31.66p

I still feel like there's a huge buy order holding us back.

Haha that is indeed true johnny! Helps to compare at the market cap level rather than using the sp. £2 now would equal a mc of £362M or US$450M. That seems unlikely! Half of that though seems achievable.

Last three weeks we've been up an average of 12% each week. If that trend continues then we'll see around 37p by the end of this week.

Also remember that this is not a particularly liquid share, with many shares held in long term hands. Accumulating a large position would be hard without pushing the price up dramatically.