Member Info for nero120

Punter even if the warrants are exercised at sale, the cash raised as a result will stay on the balance sheet so it's not a straight "asset value / shares in issue" calculation. I think any additional dilution due to warrants will likely work out as a wash in terms of affect on share price.

Hi Frenchie, yes I have the order book but tbh it's pretty useless since the way AIM trades is via the SEAQ system and so the orders on the order book are just blocks from the various market makers and do not correlate to the trades that get booked (compared to the main LSE market that uses the SETS system and does show you the actual orders).

This is a useful explanation: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/understanding-the-market/sets-and-seaq/

I think it's a tad harsh to call Seingred a deramper, after many years of posting here he clearly has a more sceptical view on Condor which is fine, and indeed this view has borne out over the years if one looks at the share price alone. IMO the problem with this view is that it discounts the value of the assets as per the rest of the market. You make money by buying undervalued assets and selling them for a higher price, which is I think the reason many of us got into Condor in the first place, and have stayed in it for so long! It is indisputable that the market has and still does undervalue this company, and the management having tried over the years to get the market to re-rate the share price ultimately have realised this and are now determined to see that value realised in the sale of the assets. Whether that strategy succeeds we will see.

Personally, I gave up hope of the market re-rating us many years ago so was happy for management to proceed to production which would either see that re-rate happen or at least receive divis. Now though I am happy with the current strategy as there are some signs that we could actually see a decent reward by selling the assets now. No-one knows how this will play out, so place your bets gentlemen.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4589497-first-majestic-silver-jerritt-canyon-mining-suspended

"Taking into account the acquisition price of $470M, accumulated mine operating losses of $130, and capital spending of $270M the total cost to First Majestic Silver so far amounts to $870M"

Good god, and people moan about MC!! How the hell is Keith Neumeyer still in a job?! Actually I know why, it's because FM is a meme stock thanks to KN's public profile and "silver to the moon" interviews. Hence why the stock has bounced 20% from the low set last Tuesday.

Some interesting info regarding Jerritt Canyon in that analysis though:

"Jerritt Canyon is not a simple operation in terms of mining as well as processing. The remaining resources require rather costly underground mining techniques, a large portion of the resources are located below the water table and dewatering is an issue. However, perhaps most importantly, the sulfide ore at Jerritt Canyon is complex and requires a roaster to process. This operation includes one of only three operating roasters in Nevada, the other two are owned by i-80 Gold (IAUX) and Nevada Gold Mines, the JV between Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM)."

All goes to highlight how valuable Condor's assets are, given 91%+ recovery rates using the standard Carbon-in-Pulp cyanidation process. No roaster needed here! I reiterate that FM should have bought Condor back in March 2021 for $100M - they could have built the mine before inflation drove costs up and been producing 100koz easily by now.

DDD remember the upside case doesn't include the value of the entire land package/exploration upside. But I'd be *very* happy with £1.50 a share!! That would certainly more than compensate me for my time invested here! But there's many a slip bewixt cup and lip, let's not count our chickens just yet...

Simms I doubt a non-binding offer is market sensitive news. The company could release news of it if they wanted to but are not obligated to.

Excellent find Joe! The word is certainly getting out, once we have a bit more certainty around the deal we could see a lot of buying from outsiders.

Punter yes that comment was historic I think, basically declaring the end of the US/Western financial empire. Gold will certainly be a cornerstone of their new economic system. I'm unsure how western stock markets will fare in the transition (e.g. will investors in gold companies be able to redeem that value of will stock markets close, capital gains tax cancel out gains, etc), but I think anyone in the west is insane not to have some exposure to gold.

Seingred conserving cash will do nothing for them, they are a mining company with tiny margins on their current silver mines and after the Jerritt Canyon debaucle, little prospects to improve their margins. So, they can either pray for silver prices to go through the roof or they need to acquire some assets that will ensure the future of their business now. Shareholders will not tolerate them sitting on their hands, conserving cash, whilst they are bleeding their current reserves. They will absolutely be looking at assets that they can acquire cheaply that will provide them with a reasonable path to grow production and reserves. Condor is a no-brainer for them, they are a shareholder so they are already familiar with our assets, know the management and have done due diligence on the company. Whether or not they end up buying our asset it makes perfect sense for them to take part in the process. I suspect they are one of the companies that have signed an NDA.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582989-first-majestic-silvers-financial-health-deteriorating-rapidly

"First Majestic acquired the Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine from Sprott Mining Inc. on April 30, 2021, at a price tag of $470 million (in shares of First Majestic), and it has proven to be a costly, highly dilutive acquisition with few benefits.

For full-year 2022, Jerritt Canyon produced gold at an AISC of $2,865oz, which is simply not profitable or sustainable with gold at $1,800/oz. While costs came down slightly in Q4 2022, this is well above the company’s 2023 guidance, which called for costs to fall between $1,733 - $1,842/oz."

They should have bought condor for $100m and built the mine for another hundy mil, they'd be producing 100k+ oz per year at under $1000 per oz AISC.

Seingred you're talking about a mining company! First majestic make barely any margin on their silver production (~$2 per ounce!). They desperately need some decent high grade, low cost resources that can generate positive cash flow asap, or they could be in real trouble. Personally I think they'll be taking a very close look at our assets right about now...

Calibre have done well, but they're in no position to buy our asset nor would they want to concentrate assets in one jurisdiction like that I would expect. However buys our asset is committed to building the mine to create jobs for the locals and providing the government with the tax revenue from an operating mine. I have to admit I was surprised no toll milling was agreed, it seems that calibre were not interested after progressing discussions to the point where Condor submitted a toll milling proposal to calibre. Playing games most likely. In any case, it looks like we don't need calibre so good luck to them, their success is good for Nicaragua and good for Condor.

Sorry that should obv be 150koz+ per year!

Woah that's bad news. FR down 25% already to under CAD$8. Glad I didn't continue to hold FR and sold at $12 back in December!

If only they had a low cost, high grade gold resource that they could develop to produce 150oz+ per year...

Very fortunate timing that gold is soaring whilst the sale process is on, a bit of good luck for a change! If the gold price can maintain at least $2000 for the next few months that would be a boon indeed.

Also with a 9% spread the MMs are hardly encouraging trades...

Connect maybe if the financial system didn't almost fall apart (again) we would have hit 30p. All things considered it was a decent run on the back of the RNS. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

Volume has fallen off a cliff, I'd expect some churn and for it to drift lower as traders take profits. The word is still not out yet. We need confirmation of a binding offer and price, when that comes (which could be any time in the next few months) then the herd will pile in IMO as it will mean literal free money from these levels. Until then, normal service has resumed!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0_oG3LlnjI

From 14:05:

"I was recently talking to a very large Chinese company, originally gold but expanded into other metals. They will deal with Canadian and US companies, provided their asset is not in the western world. Anyone in Latin America, Africa, etc they are happy to do strategic investments and acquisitions. But if you've got an asset in the western world, the Chinese will no longer touch you."

Very interesting comments from Mario Stifano, CEO of Galantas Gold and Chairman of Dore Copper. One wonders what geopolitical games might be being played regarding our asset sale. Are western governments happy to let the Chinese acquire our asset? If not, what shenanigans might they have in store? Best case scenario for us would be a bidding war between a large western miner and a large chinese miner, but hopefully we're small enough not to make any big waves and bring any unwanted western government attention...

Simms, quite frankly, interest rates should never been anywhere near zero so **** them, this is their mess. Gold flying is the natural response to bureaucratic corruption and incompetence - something that it appears no western nation has any perceivable shortage of at the moment.