Member Info for nero120

IMO I can't see a "no deal" scenario arising. We have had (at least) three site visits with each site visit team signing off on the assets and recommending to proceed. MC has a weekly call with Hannam & Partners after which he briefs the other directors, so is pretty much running the sales process as much as H&P.

No deal IMO means Condor MUST get financing quick sharp for the mine build or more than likely will lose the permits as the gov want the mine built asap, so there will be a deal as there are serious parties involved in the process that have done their DD. I don't believe either JM or MC have the stomach to go for mine build, I think JM especially wants to cash out here so they will take the best deal they can get. I expect the amount of time being taken is due to ongoing negotiations between MC/H&P and the various interest parties, but that's just a guess on my part.

I won't make a prediction re price as I don't believe the SP has ever really reflected the value here, and the assets will sell for the current fair market price - and we will find out what that is once the sales process concludes in due course.

If MC is to be believed, he has been very confident that the sales process would be concluded this year (which makes me think that is the H&P timeline), so we should be seeing binding offers appearing in the next few months. I can only hope that this Christmas will finally be a happy one for Condorians, we shall see!

Illiquidity is one of the hardest things for inexperienced investors to understand. I didn't have a clue when I first invested here, now I've learned the hard way! I wouldn't take such a large position in an illiquid asset again.

Many property "owners" are just starting to discover this, but it's even worse for them as they are also learning a very hard lesson about leverage and interest rates at the same time...

Isa, this is a tightly held, low volume share. That means when there is some decent buying volume it goes up quickly, otherwise it drifts downwards as MMs try to encourage buys. Given that the gold price has been absolutely smashed over the past few weeks I'm surprised it hasn't dropped more.

Everyone is waiting for an update on the sales process - hopefully that will be "binding offer received for $150M+". Until then watching every trade is meaningless, with all respect there is really no need to report on it daily.

Yes good luck to us all, I would very much like to draw a line under this investment journey soon!

Seingred one step at a time, we need that first binding offer. No idea how long that will take, only that MC seems far more confident that we'll have one well before end of year if the sales process will be finalised by then (take that for whatever you think it's worth). I would also expect more warrants to be converted before the end of the process.

I would certainly expect some LTHs to offload a chunk on news of a binding offer if we get a re-rate and some decent volume, and keep some in play in case of competitive bidding.

It wouldn't say "worrying" pdp, I would say "annoying". If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long £5M deals take to agree for the company I work for and 5 months is not that long!

MC has reiterated recently that he expects the sales process to be concluded this year and he is involved directly in negotiations so if it was looking like there was no binding offer in sight I doubt very much he'd be so confident. Though some investors may have lost trust with his judgement, but in that case look at the facts: £400M+ NAV, 5 non-binding offers, 3 site visits so far, 8 companies currently under NDA, etc.

It is highly likely the assets will be sold, the only questions are for what price and how much gets returned to share holders. None of us really know what's happening behind the scenes, we just have to wait and see.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88pP53lcBwQ

Very interesting conversation, well worth listening to. Of the BRICS do announce a currency linked to a weight of gold in the meeting this month that will be like a nuclear bomb going off!

Yes broomtree it's all about the volume, that's always been the problem here.

Lol. Given that gold is getting hit hard I'm surprised we're not dropping.

(not sure why that got cut off...)

It's all about that first binding offer. If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long £5M deals take to agree for the company I work for and 5 months is not that long!

MC has reiterated recently that he expects the sales process to be concluded this year and he is involved directly in negotiations so if it was looking like there was no binding offer in sight I doubt very much he'd be so confident. Though some investors may have lost trust with his judgement, but in that case look at the facts: £400M+ NAV, 5 non-binding offers, 3 site visits so far, 8 companies currently under NDA, etc.

If MC is right then I'd expect to see the first binding offer by the end of September.

It's all about that first binding offer. If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long

Yeah not sure about "less due diligence" when spending $100-200m Simms!

In any case I expect the tweet is just to let people know that there are new parties entering the process as negotiations are continuing with those that have already conducted site visits. My guess is we'll get a binding offer from one of these parties within the next few months, then that will put a fire under the other interested parties and we'll get a few counter offers.

Remember MC is confident that the sales process will be concluded this year and he is involved at every level.

It is highly likely the assets will be sold, the only questions are for what price and how much gets returned to share holders.

Oh and enjoy your holiday ISA, it's raining and miserable in England.

From my communications with MC the sales process appears to be progressing well. From the sounds of things, MC is running the sales process as much as Hannam. Perhaps we will get news in the near future of further site visits leading up to a binding offer. I can only imagine that 3+ site visits proceeding to a binding offer would do wonders to bid up binding offers, but that's just my opinion. In any event, I believe MC is still confident that the sales process will be concluded this year, but as always I encourage every investor that has reasonable questions to email him as he always responds promptly.

This has been a long road for everyone involved, and now we have a glimpse of the finish line perhaps everyone involved just wants this to finally reach a satisfactory conclusion. If/WHEN we do see an RNS stating that a binding offer has been received, I can only imagine the relief we will all feel!!

Johngle, we know that Hannam are indeed running the sales process to a schedule but that schedule is confidential. They will not let the process go on indefinitely. I would guess that we will know one way or the other by Q4 (within three months), but we'll see I guess.

The $628M NPV and IRR 74% at $2,000/oz figure include the two feeder pits and 1.2M oz under the La India pit in the mine plan. This scenario is not covered by the BFS so to a less degree of certainty, but the point is made that there is clearly a lot of proven value here. Even taking the BFS scenario, for $106M capex and 12-18 months build time, you produce 82,000 oz for the first six years with AISC of $1,039. That's $75M a year profit at $1,950, capex recouped after 18 months of production leaving $337M profit for the remaining 4.5 years. Then you add the remaining LOM and that's assuming you do nothing with the underground or feeder pits. As I said, there is a lot of value here and I cannot believe an acceptable binding offer wouldn't be reached that accounts for the huge upside potential.

I'm not so sure Jim would take this private though, I think Condor was his speculation play that the financial system would go to hell and gold would soar. Clearly that was a wrong call (I also thought the same, hence my time here) so even if it does happen in the future I don't think he has the appetite to become a gold producer and this mine must be built now, so he will sell it and continue the gold play somewhere else.

As ever, we will see.

There are clearly many PIs that have lost faith with the management, unfairly so I would argue. You may disagree with Marks decisions over the years, but the FACTS are that Mark and team have proven up a resource with $400m+ NAV without excessively diluting existing share holders and through a 12 year bear market in gold (equities) and very difficult market conditions. Yes, it would have been lovely if investor capital was flowing into gold explorers like they were tech/crypto/AI stocks but that wasn't the case and we all have to take responsibility for investing in the WRONG SECTOR over this period. There is no way I'm going to accept PIs blaming the management team of Condor for their own mistake, we all bloody well own it.

Right now Condor has received five non-binding offers. Three site visits have been conducted with the visiting teams recommending in progressing to a purchase of the assets. Just one offer needs to be converted to a binding offer and we can conclude our time here and put the rest down to experience.

Personally I do not believe that Mark or Jim will try to screw investors out of the proceeds of the sale but let's not jump unfounded accusations out of frustration. We will cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

Yep, and he also states that Jim will not let the asset go cheap. So if he's "very confident" that the asset will get sold this year, and it's not going cheap, then I think it's safe to say that the non-binding offers are in the ball park of Jim's target price.

MC: "I'm very confident the asset will get sold this year"

For the record.

Appreciate the info slowther, sadly we do have some proper degenerates on this board. I honestly have no idea why they simply don't sell up and move on.

Punter he said that he hoped to see a binding offer by summer, he did not anywhere say it would be "done and dusted" by summer. Feel free to post a link to prove your claim though.