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So it seems with a fair wind we could see the first binding offer drop before the summer? Many have said that the offers cannot reasonably be much higher than the current market cap, which I have struggled to accept. Hannam's sale prospectus sent to interested parties quoted a base case NPV of US$302M and an upside case NPV of US$418M at $1,700/oz - how does this correspond to a current market cap of US$75M?!
I will be interesting to see which of the two the first binding offer is closer to!
Gold took a massive dump down to $1988 so that probably has something to do with it. Volume today was higher than the average daily volume for last week though, interest few trades going in to the close:
16:30:17 - 66,666 @ 32.00p
16:19:50 - 66,666 @ 32.00p
16:19:41 - 62,151 @ 32.00p
16:19:25 - 60,000 @ 31.66p
I still feel like there's a huge buy order holding us back.
No ICB, I do not think those large round numbered trades we keep seeing appear within seconds of each other are bed and isas, they are block trades being executed by MMs as part of a larger order. Were they bed and isas then I would expect the trades not to be round numbers, with a larger spread between the sell and the buy, and more time between them (a few minutes at least).
As I keep saying, I think there is a very large order (in the millions), or bunch of orders that an MM (or multiple MMs) have been trying to fill for the last few weeks. These orders are buys since the price has been rising strongly, but the MMs are naturally trying to execute at the lowest possible price.
This makes sense, since a sale is all but done and likely to be multiples higher from the current price.
Also liked how Mark emphasised the value of the entire district and that the FS had recent higher inflation priced in to costs.
Going back to the question and answer session from yesterday, someone ( :) ) asked Mark to clarify whether or not Condor owns all the land, as that someone is probably sick of book5 on advfn constantly complaining that Condor does not own all the land and accusing management of misleading investors. I for one am glad to hear that land ownership will not be an issue for the sale process.
Connect look at the trades, so many block trades being executed so clearly there is a very large order or multiple orders that MMs are trying to fill at or under 30p. Until these orders are cleared I doubt the MMs will let the price run much higher.
Seingred I'm confused, if you're not holding until after the sale then how do you expect to "be wrong and get scooby doos £1.50"? Obv that was said in jest but the point is, if you don't trust JM then you're not sticking around until the sale goes through, so at what price are you selling? You have said that you think 60p is the max you think possible for the sale, so I doubt that's your target. So what is it, 40p?
Doubt that is a bed and isa trade ICB, the bid/ask would not be the same to sell and buy within 10 secs or so. Looks more like a block trade to me, our big order is still there in the background trying to get filled...
CF see here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4322432-condor-spreads-wings-to-fly-again