Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Slippery, just my opinion but I think JM and MC HAVE to sell because for one reason or another they are not going to build the mine (and I don't believe they ever wanted to in the first place) and if they don't sell to a producer who will build the mine they will lose the permits. MC has stated that the sales process has a defined duration (not being disclosed), perhaps because they've agreed that time period with the Ministry of Mines in order to get the rubber stamp for conducting the asset sale. Of course, they will tell the market "we will not sell this cheap" and "if we don't get the right price we will build ourselves" (that's just common sense), but what they really want is the fair, market price for the assets as they know they won't be able to get more than that. The goal of the sales process is to discover the fair market price of the assets through competing bidders, rather than one low ball offer.
I'm guessing they will sell the assets this year, the question is for how much and none of us know what that will be, it all depends on whether they have some of these non-binder offer bidders competing with each other behind the scenes. But this is all just guess work on my part, I have no special knowledge different from any of you.
Johnnytaffia I don't agree, this company will never be taken private for the simple reason that the government wants the mine built and will not allow JM to sit on the assets whilst they gather dust. Remember, a number of Nic officials are also shareholders (Including Ortega's son or something if I recall) so if JM plans to screw over shareholders things get very messy very quickly. Much easier just to sell the assets/company and everyone cashes in their chips.
The share price movements as others have noted are not based on news or are in any particularly large volume, so the price volatility is high. It goes up just as fast as it goes down.
Condor has a PROVEN asset with an NPV of $400m and %20+ IRR. The market cap is irrelevant, what matter is the price that the assets sell for and that has nothing to do with the share price, it is about the VALUE OF THE ASSETS. We will find out in due course once a binding offer has been made.
Dayster, there really isn't much to say. The assets have been proven up and derisked and are now in the process of being sold. This is the final stretch, now we're just waiting to hear what deal has been negotiated. Whilst that's going on the company is in hibernation to minimise opex, so not much to discuss.
Very good interview, must watch for all shareholders. MC looks and sounds confident.
There's clearly a lot of emotion flying about on this board but Mark states the facts clearly in the interview. There is no reason to think the assets won't be sold, merely a question of negotiating discount to NPV. Time pressure not a factor as JM is committed to fund the company whilst the sales process is ongoing.
Ignore the share price, as there is no real price discovery here - price discovery will come once the first binding offer drops.
Until then, ignore the emotional rants and allow MC and JM the time required to negotiate the sale.
IMO I can't see a "no deal" scenario arising. We have had (at least) three site visits with each site visit team signing off on the assets and recommending to proceed. MC has a weekly call with Hannam & Partners after which he briefs the other directors, so is pretty much running the sales process as much as H&P.
No deal IMO means Condor MUST get financing quick sharp for the mine build or more than likely will lose the permits as the gov want the mine built asap, so there will be a deal as there are serious parties involved in the process that have done their DD. I don't believe either JM or MC have the stomach to go for mine build, I think JM especially wants to cash out here so they will take the best deal they can get. I expect the amount of time being taken is due to ongoing negotiations between MC/H&P and the various interest parties, but that's just a guess on my part.
I won't make a prediction re price as I don't believe the SP has ever really reflected the value here, and the assets will sell for the current fair market price - and we will find out what that is once the sales process concludes in due course.
If MC is to be believed, he has been very confident that the sales process would be concluded this year (which makes me think that is the H&P timeline), so we should be seeing binding offers appearing in the next few months. I can only hope that this Christmas will finally be a happy one for Condorians, we shall see!
Illiquidity is one of the hardest things for inexperienced investors to understand. I didn't have a clue when I first invested here, now I've learned the hard way! I wouldn't take such a large position in an illiquid asset again.
Many property "owners" are just starting to discover this, but it's even worse for them as they are also learning a very hard lesson about leverage and interest rates at the same time...
Isa, this is a tightly held, low volume share. That means when there is some decent buying volume it goes up quickly, otherwise it drifts downwards as MMs try to encourage buys. Given that the gold price has been absolutely smashed over the past few weeks I'm surprised it hasn't dropped more.
Everyone is waiting for an update on the sales process - hopefully that will be "binding offer received for $150M+". Until then watching every trade is meaningless, with all respect there is really no need to report on it daily.
Seingred one step at a time, we need that first binding offer. No idea how long that will take, only that MC seems far more confident that we'll have one well before end of year if the sales process will be finalised by then (take that for whatever you think it's worth). I would also expect more warrants to be converted before the end of the process.
I would certainly expect some LTHs to offload a chunk on news of a binding offer if we get a re-rate and some decent volume, and keep some in play in case of competitive bidding.
It wouldn't say "worrying" pdp, I would say "annoying". If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long £5M deals take to agree for the company I work for and 5 months is not that long!
MC has reiterated recently that he expects the sales process to be concluded this year and he is involved directly in negotiations so if it was looking like there was no binding offer in sight I doubt very much he'd be so confident. Though some investors may have lost trust with his judgement, but in that case look at the facts: £400M+ NAV, 5 non-binding offers, 3 site visits so far, 8 companies currently under NDA, etc.
It is highly likely the assets will be sold, the only questions are for what price and how much gets returned to share holders. None of us really know what's happening behind the scenes, we just have to wait and see.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88pP53lcBwQ
Very interesting conversation, well worth listening to. Of the BRICS do announce a currency linked to a weight of gold in the meeting this month that will be like a nuclear bomb going off!
(not sure why that got cut off...)
It's all about that first binding offer. If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long £5M deals take to agree for the company I work for and 5 months is not that long!
MC has reiterated recently that he expects the sales process to be concluded this year and he is involved directly in negotiations so if it was looking like there was no binding offer in sight I doubt very much he'd be so confident. Though some investors may have lost trust with his judgement, but in that case look at the facts: £400M+ NAV, 5 non-binding offers, 3 site visits so far, 8 companies currently under NDA, etc.
If MC is right then I'd expect to see the first binding offer by the end of September.