Member Info for nero120

Surrey do you never get tired of the sound of your own whining? Do you actually have anything constructive to add?

Average SP of an illiquid junior is no real barometer of value. The stock market is not what it used to be, "investors" follow momentum more than fundamental value. So in my opinion it's no longer a useful metric for price discovery, especially during negotiations for sale of assets. That discovery comes from what interested parties are prepared to bid.

I think this process is much more like selling a property. The seller can ask for whatever price they want, but can only sell at what the highest bidder is willing to pay. We have no idea what kind of offers have been made, but given the length of this process it's probably fair to say that those offers have been less than Jim was willing to accept.

However he can't wait forever, before locals and gov begin to get frustrated, so we're probably at the point when Jim knows what the max he can get is and has to accept it or change strategy.

We'll find out in due course.

Yes, and that accounts nothing to the other resources and rest of land package. Honestly this deal is a paradox, either someone is going to humiliated JM by getting Condor assets for an absolute steal on the cusp of a new gold bull market, or everyone will be shocked for how far above the sp they will sell for!

For most of us LTHs we'll just be happy to see the end of this journey. I bet no one thought we'd be here, frustrated, over 10 years later with gold knocking on $2500, and I bet the same would be true for MC and JM.

Thank you for that post Lichtgestalt85, very helpful. This board has been particularly poor lately and your post is a welcome change of pace.

It's funny, I look at the property market and I see property after property sitting on the market unsold after months because the sellers are pricing them far too high above what the market is willing to pay. Could there be an element of this same stubbornness at play here? Hope not, and that Jim and Mark by now know what the market price for our assets are, and are finalising a reasonable binding offer. We continue to wait.

Hey Surrey if you like I can send you an email every day containing the words "Still negotiating..." if it makes you feel better! 😆

Seriously though what's to say? If they're still negotiating then they're still negotiating, and it will take as long as it takes. If you believe that management are trying to get you, the shareholder, the best deal possible then that's fine right? If not, then you don't trust management so you sell out and move on.

There is a time limit on this process though, so it won't go on forever as they won't want to risk the support of the gov/locals. And it's important that no one knows what that time limit is otherwise it would be held against them in negotiations. Really, it's a question of who will break first, Condor on what they're willing to accept, or the other party on what they're willing to offer.

At that point MC/JM need to then decide whether to accept the best offer on the table or change strategy and commit to the build.

You still slithering about here Seingred? What a surprise.

Simms in truth I don't think they ever wanted to go down the mine build route, and they have said as much over the years. "But then why buy the mill!!" I hear you cry! Well, because an opportunity to buy it unused came up and Mark believed that it would help to de-risk and decrease build timescales, plus he got to buy it part shares part cash from First Majestic. Personally I think that was a good decision at the time.

The real reason why everyone here is miserable is not because of management (in my view), but that the gold equities are basically in the toilet, still, even after the recent gold price increase. The market is just not interested in gold equities, and not only that but majors are not really interested in M&A to increase their reserves as yet. It's insane, but in spite of everything, there it is. Gold equities should be soaring, but it feels like everything is being done to keep tech stocks (and cryptos) high whilst keeping commodities and PMs low. How long that can continue I'm not sure, but it probably doesn't help us unfortunately. We have been caught up in a bigger battle, and being in Nic under threat of sanctions doesn't help either.

I expect Mark and Jim will have to bite the bullet and do a deal, even at a price they are not happy with. They can't continue to stall to wait for a better offer for too long.

Annoyed at yourself, you mean?

Indeed polo, they've committed to a sale, come what may.

I think the best thing to do at this point is take the best offer on the table, announce the binding offer and hope that draws other competing bids from other interested parties who see where the gold price is going. All this cloak and shdows stuff is not doing us any favours i don't think.

Note that B2Gold (as one example) reported an average selling price of ~US$1520/oz earlier this month for Q1. Q2 numbers are due out in July, another US$800/oz should boost their revenue quite handsomely and attract greater attention to the sector from investors, especially if the gold price continues to climb higher.

That would definitely help Jim with negotiations.

I think there's a bit of expectation difference happening regarding what producers think they can buy explorers for, and what explorers are willing to accept given the current soaring gold price. This is natural, but will take some time before producers are willing to pay more I think.

We can see the same thing with the housing market in the UK, deluded sellers thinking putting their houses on the market for covid+ 20% will fly when interest rates are around 5%. What happens? Transaction volumes hit the floor until prices move to more realistic levels.

It's an interesting situation. On the one hand I'm getting tired of waiting for a resolution (I can only imagine how MC feels, I seriously doubt he is "enjoying" this situation). On the other hand, I do not not want them to let the assets go a bargain prices when (it appears) we are finally on the cusp of a major commodity/PM bull market. Even 40p would be considered at loss at this point.

Barely anyone even knows we are in a commodity/gold/silver bull market because the f-ing stock markets are still at nose bleed levels and whilst property is cracking it is slow going. As a result, sentiment is still very low so I'm sure that is not helping us deal a strong hand in negotiations. JM/MC need to decide whether the current level of offer is acceptable to them, or whether they are going to change strategy to try and get more shareholder value. However, JV/self-build is not a foregone conclusion that the sp will improve, we'd be looking a hefty dilution and/or loss of 100% ownership, plus taking on the build risk. Would probably be a while before we saw any decent sp improvement, assuming they achieved production without major issues.

Personally, my guess is they will do a deal. With the sp around 30p, 40p is 30% higher which is probably acceptable to a producer but is it acceptable to Jim? I don't know. I have no idea what level the bid is at currently, or how close it is to Jim's target. But this cannot go on indefinitely so something has to give.

Whilst we wait, the gold and silver in the ground is getting more valuable by the day!

You nailed it Awax. Senior miners earnings reports in Q2 will include the huge uplift in the gold price, expect more interest to come into the sector when that happens and that will spur on more M&A activity.

As much as I'd love for a deal to be announced asap, I also didn't hold on here to have nothing to show for it. Get the best price possible Jim.

Good post EL. In addition, it's been said on here multiple times that JM cannot hold the asset indefinitely without developing the mine as he will both lose the support of the community and the government, something that he is _accutely_ aware of. He will have to balance his time to negotiate a decent sale with these factors in mind.

Given the surge of the gold price we are in a far better position now than when the sale process started, and have more chance of us all making a decent profit here. Yes, the fall back in the sp is a bit annoying but if you understand that it is based on the whims of short term PIs with not related to changing facts of the ground, it is easier to stomach.

Let's hold our nerves and await news.

Again surrey, no one's keeping you here against your will. I would have thought you'd made it plainly clear that you're unhappy with the current circumstances. If you missed other opportunities you only have yourself to blame.

If anyone is feeling despondent then I suggest them to go look at the current price of gold. There is overwhelming incentives to get a deal done, is just a question of price and time.

Sakura, last time I contacted him was end of Feb. Felt no need to hassle him since.

Surrey just out of interest, what "disdain for lths"? I'm want Jim to get the best deal possible, and can only assume that is what he and the management are working towards, given that they have strong incentives to do so. Do you have other information?

It is infantile to expect an ongoing commentary of complex negotiations that involve Condor, interested parties, the Nic government, other governments (?!), etc, etc. Apparently MC moved his entire family to another country to benefit from paying les tax on the proceeds of a deal that he is working hard to achieve, yet people here complain about being inconvenienced?!

Sorry but, **** me the entitlement here is staggering. No one has a gun to your head, if you or anyone else is not happy with the situation then SELL.

What I suggest?! I'm talking about after the RNS is released, JFC!!

You really have a chip on your shoulder don't you Punter? I feel sorry for those that have to put up with you irl.

Looks like I was spot on on my analysis of your lack of ability to read properly, since I never stated anything about "profiting" from any deal announcement by buying on news. If it wasn't already painfully obvious that's why us lths are still here.

A deal will obviously bring buying volume, whether to push up the bid or hold up the ask for those that want to exit at that point.