Member Info for nero120

Punter, if you are able to read then you and everyone else will know when a deal is made because it will be announced via RNS.

Retraces will happen until we get sustained buying volume. That will only happen when there is a clear reason to buy, i.e. a deal.

Frustrating, but that's the way it is. Until we have actual news, the rest is just pure speculation.

I don't think people here quite understand the situation. Essentially, Jim has an asset with a very high level of confidence to extract billions in gold over the next 10 years or more. The gold price has finally broken loose and has geopolitical and financial tailwinds behind it that do not look like they will be abating anytime soon, so we are facing a multi-year bull market after 14 years in the doldrums. We also have famous investors like Stanley Druckenmiller signalling a move from risk assets into commodities and precious metals miners, and who knows how much physical gold they are buying!

Jim has stayed invested in Condor all this time, essentially funding the company and keeping it alive FOR THIS EXACT REASON! He stated it numerous times in speeches and interviews. Now that we are finally here, do you really think he's going to sell the asset quick because a bunch of skittish PIs moan on a forum that "negotiations are taking too long"?! Hell no. He's going to wait until he gets what he thinks is a fair price, and no doubt that is much higher than here. He is well aware of political risk, and will be keeping the locals and gov informed and onside throughout this process. He is not an amateur. No doubt the gov will be involved in the negotiations to some extent (tax incentives, etc), that could even be contributing to delays.

This process will take as long as it takes, it could be over tomorrow, next year or longer. But when it's over, the share price will be far higher.

If you can't accept that, best exit now. It's not going to get any easier.

Plus the up front capex is likely to be much higher 6 years later after accounting for the huge inflation since then.

I think this is all good for Condor, our project may be smaller but it is arguably far more economical.

Well I suppose it's more profitable to dig up a tonne of rock if there is a decent amount of copper in as well as a bit of gold byproduct.

However I'm still astonished at those estimates given the tiny grade, they must have put it 10s of thousands of metres of drilling to get to a proven level of certainty of 5.5m ozs gold at 0.3g/t grade!! How much drilling have we put in just to get to 800koz @ 3g/t?!

Something going on there that I'm not getting clearly...

CF I thought it was positive for us.

However, that link you posted regarding the La Arena II project, the grades are tiny and they have 5.5m oz M&I with $600 AISC?! I'm no expert but they must have spent a fortune to drill up and prove that amount of gold at those grades! And $1.36 billion in up front capital?! Just seems crazy given inflation is only going to increase. Perhaps this is mainly a copper project.

Anyways, all this M&A activity is only good news for us. I think Jim is playing hard ball big time, he wants top dollar. We just have to wait and see if he can get it, but as the gold price remains at these levels and more deals are getting done, it's looking more and more likely!

Https://resourceworld.com/pan-american-sells-peru-gold-mine-for-us245-million-cash-upfront/

"Pan American Silver Corp. [PAAS-TSX, NASDAQ] said it has agreed to sell its 100% interest in La Arena SA, which owns the La Arena gold mine as well as the La Arena 11 project in Peru to Jinteng (Singapore) Mining Pte. Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. Pan American is selling the asset for US$245 million cash up front and a US$50 million contingent payment.

The La Arena property is located in the La Libertad province of Peru and is comprised of the La Arena gold mine and the La Arena 11 project. Since acquiring the mine from Tahoe Resources Inc. in 2019, Pan American said it has added 535,521 ounces of gold through exploration, and extended the mine life from 2021 to 2026, with the potential for a further expansion."

Err...!!!

Must have been in Turkish Lira because a share price of £28 in 2011 would have valued the company at £28 billion, which is about £40 billion today (accounting for inflation)!

I think that's what kids refer to as a "full send"! 🤣

Also, HL will take 150,000@33.11 so there is definitely liquidity out there right now!! They wouldn't quote me 50,000 a few months back!

Momentum is building, but if there were a leak we'd see the sp jump straight to the offer price! So I conclude this recent rise is probably PIs building positions due to:

1. The much higher gold price

2. Recent publicity regarding the sale process

I do also wonder, everyone here that was moaning constantly about the time it was taking to do a deal, had MC/JM agreed to a low ball offer would those same individuals now be moaning that they sold too cheaply?! Probably! :D

Thanks for posting that Rider!

What's our NPV at $2400 gold?

Barnard I get your frustration, but this idea that production=better share price is just not so clear cut. Look at HUM, multiple operating mines, multiple jurisdictions, yet sporting a market cap less than ours!!!

Personally, I couldn't care less whether we build or not build, I want the share price higher and a liquidity event to exit. If the board believes that that will more likely be achieved via the sales process then so be it.

Let me put it another way, what if rather than embarking on the sales process 18 months ago, they announced the fund raise to start build, built the mine with no issues, and was now producing gold, yet after huge dilution and taking on debt, the market cap was actually less than it is today? You'd be fuming.

Nothing is clear cut in equity markets these days.

CF not only that but the FS used recent inflation-adjusted costs so recent cost increases are basically "priced in". Makes a big difference as some gold operators are seeing costs rising faster than the gold price.

Yes low volumes point to a lack of leaked news, however interesting that the MMs are still pushing up the bid.

Fingers crossed this Calibre theory pans out soon...

Jim has always been bullish on gold, I expect his investment here was him hoping that gold would rise to $5000+ before selling out. Sadly that didn't come to pass, but I think he still retains his bullish view on gold.

So, with that in mind, what would Jim prefer coming out of this sale process? A decent wad of (depreciating) cash that he'd just have to reinvest in gold miners? Or a nice stake in a solid gold producer where he can keep his exposure to the rising gold price? Perhaps even a seat on the board? As we are entering a commodities bull market it would certainly be a nice place to be for the next 10+ years of the cyclical bull market in commodities.

To that end, perhaps he was angling for calibre to buy condor since they started this sales process? We'll find out soon!

Making a run for $2300...

Sorry that should be $100m not £100m!

I don't know, how hard would it be for Jim and some billionaire PE chums to whip round £100m?! Not that hard I imagine. Must be tempting when the gold price is on such a tear. 12 months to build then sell the producing mine for at least £200m.

Surely that has to be part of their negotiating strategy, even if he's not seriously intending on following through?

Yes gold making very strong moves with 5 out of the last 6 weekly candles very green, rising from $2024 to $2260 currently. I wonder where this short term bull move will move to before hitting serious resistance.

And of course adds potential rocket fuel under the junior market. Come on Condor, make the deal!