Member Info for NathanR999

Ridiculous. How has poolbeg strategy failed. Assets with no real likelyhood of being realised now have tangible value which you can get at in April if you do so wish or hold for various potential value adding events. Share price of open orphan is delinked from poolbeg. Orph price is linked to orph pipeline and residual assets only. Again DIM has jo tangible book value, ditto minimal book value for prep and imutex and these three may be realised in time. The residual core business may hit 15p in your head only but in most sane individuals see the value here and confirmation of 2022 fy financial being hit and guided higher will prove that orph is woefully undervalued currently outwith of spin-off potential. Value is built Iver time and not 5 mins which seems to be your investment time horizon. Numpty

Not sure why @>&* will hit fan in April for Open Orphan? You mean the lock up in a different share will end and people may sell - i would fully expect a decent amount of churn there anyway - free shares = free money and some in light of current world affairs will take as cash. Poolbeg unlocking should not affect here as we dont hold Poolbeg shares in Orphan treasury. The market and assets at Poolbeg will set Poolbegs price it could be higher it could be lower. But then again you dont hold shares here or poolbeg do you....... if you do and dont believe in Orph then sell, ditto poolbeg when they unlock.
Happy to hold here and at poolbeg - the assets under development at poolbeg look to be very interesting indeed and Polb001 is potential blockbuster and some assets will require hvivo services in time and I see that as win win. There will be other assets added in time and market will see that value in time. any drop around lockout essentially does not affect day to day running in reality. Positive data on LPS challenge will add considerable value and mcap will rise. Marathon at Poolbeg not a sprint and if it goes to 5p i will be adding considerably to my holding.

On the specialised tests aspect. The lab at hvivo would almost certainly be able to do this and much more as they will be monitoring large panels of biomakers during trials and also doing what is needed during patient selection screening. Lost of commercial tests out that can measure nucleocapsid and spike antibodies and classification of antibodies igm vs igg as an example. Quite a few commercial and in house assays for looking at t cell response now also. Fascinating stuff

I think one area that all chims in coronaviruses area will struggle with is true naive patients that have not been infected or vaccinated. Infected will have antibodies against spike and nucleocapsid and those immunised spike only. T cells will be another area in both cohorts. However this should be an issue as this is likely in flu and rsv studies equally. Most vaccines and drugs wil be used on likely highly exposed vianinfection or vaccination anyway. Imho

In English?????

I don't think this is competition per se just an ethos that trials can be and should be run where clinical need is high without some of the traditional barriers. Ultimately it will help maybe fund novel drugs parked in capital poor companies getting into early phases either via governmental support or altruistic ngo bodies. Hopefully due to the model that chims help support of early go, no go or programmes it will benefit us being in that simar ethos. Imho

I think the original post has been misinterpreted here. Those taking part in the covid chim will have to clear such a high bar on fitness that their risk profile for any infection by covid would be negligible and delay around ethics here based on risk to participant is counter productive. Risk of adverse event is of course not zero but not the same as a 65yr copd patient with diabetes. Running chims in negligible risk patients to bring forward a successful vaccine or antiviral should mitigate as it leads to less adverse outcome in higher risk patients. Chims=saving lives and should be allowed to progress on this basis, one could argue it is unethical knowing a drug could be progress.more quickly by using a chim but not allowing it. The high quality of prescreening and high bar for acceptance into trial should mean from business point of view a high price point should be sought and maintained. These being run at 15million plus can be supported by government or charities to cover this. Small beans in scheme of things but high rewards for novel treatments translating to savings on patient care and lives preserved. Don't think the poster was intending to underplayed overall risk of covid on a total population scale.

Very happy with what I heard. The host asked 4 or 5 of my questions and answers, for me, gave me a lot of excitement as to where polb001 and meliovac assets could go. Still reasonable risk to get to an asset sale for further development but will be happy tonafd further to my holding of just over 200000 on any weakness once unlock in April occurs. I think quite a few traders will head for hills if they got the orph related free shares. I think short-term the price could bottom at a considerable discount to ipo if that happens . If polb001 does what it says on tin in the lps challenge then the asset will be worth north of 100mn and many times that based on use on long covid, covid initial infection needing itu, severe flu and sepsis. Could be a blockbuster diamond in the rough.

I got a lot questions asked and very happy with responses. Strong long term hold for me and will be adding more poolbeg when I get spare cash. Very keen on polb001 asset and meliovac.

Keen to know your investment thesis keeping you here? Where do you see open orphan business in 6 months, 1 year, 3yrs and maybe 5yrs

Seems to me you have a very one track hanging all.issues on share price alone and attributing this to one person only. As I see it we are regularly adding business at decent intervals over and above years before. But this is clearly attributable to cathal. So i ask again what is it you see in the business that is keeping you here. I would be happy for CF to stay, business is in great shape. Share price is only relevant if selling today. It seems you speak with forked tongue

Then you need to sell up and divest Jumbo. You won't need to stay here moaning and your life will no doubt be a lot better. Use you investment on better opportunities that clearly as a 'smart investor' you must have. Your capital will be better employed, no? You will increase your wealth won't you?

Not quite as simple as that I am afraid - just looked on their website - this seems like it could be very close to a grift. Based on my immunology and virology knowledge this is very far away from what imutex are doing and based on reading some of their documents it is in places factually wrong. I wouldnt get excited but if they have the money (novak djokavic seems to be a major funder) and they want to use us I wouldnt argue. Serious doubts on this sketchy company but happy to be proved wrong.

The quantbiores asset seems a bit vague and i got feeling it comes across as quackery but happy to learm more. I guess in end it doesn't really make a difference to us as we aren't paid on product success only to test what is in front of us. Only concern is funding of the company employing us to ensure we get paid!

No worries on capacity from.me!!! Very happy investor with the great news today. Good luck all.

So you saying price is down 60% because we won't find a space to do all the work we will likely be signed to do. Are you on crack? Price is what it is and happy with CF leading the ship and happy with my investment. If your not , then sell and go ahead reinvesting in a company that will meet your requirements. Patience is a virtue

Plenty of different options and if cost of rental space goes up then this can be passed on to end customer. Or they rent rooms in a private hospital, plenty in London, or they look outside of London where prices maybe lower. Not sure.london will return to normal for a whole while yet. Making an issue where there isn't one.

Why not short-term lease of underused hotels, hospital ward or isolation suite not needed for non corona work as minimal risk for general population for flu and rsv. Cheap, available. Many many tens of potential antiviral or therapeutic antibodies in pre clinical or phase 1 close that will be needing to be efficacy tested for flu alone. Can bring to market quicker via challenge study, cheaper than mass population study. Evidence of this is in front of your eyes, hvivo activity way above previous years. Will protect or raise margins as value of challenge study is seen. If they only got to 25% of new proposed agents that got throug phase 1 and safety we will be doing very well. Now replicate for other viral targets like rsv, corona, rhinovirus. Add in vaccines, add in new agents like malaria, group a strep, c.diff, norovirus, salmonella. Capacity will be needed, price can be set accordingly and volume of work available as potential deals will be high. Tell me whonelse will be doing these then if we won't be????

Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????

You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself. As a virology/bacteriology trained scientist I have no qualms holding this whilst hvivo have the lead in delivering rsv, flu human rhinovirus, asthma studies for potential treatments and vaccines. Add in new models expansion for Coronaviruses and shareprice will look after itself. Data licensing will add more revenue either as spin out DIM or via one offs if DIM never happens for areas of interest for diagnostics (an area I work in professionally) as human or host response Data will be key in some exciting assays to predict infection outcome. Throw in other assets that may get sold like prep and imutex then risk here is low with really decent risk profile for a quite large potential reward.

Literally you have no clue.

Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????

You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself.

Interesting asset to in licence. This at first look works in a similar way to PrepBiopharms Prep001 using rna rather than the rna mimetic prep use. Bit of a relief, hopefully this will mean poolbeg won't be the aquirer of that asset, was worried a related party purchase may have been over inflated. This new asset probably better. Will take 2 years to phase 2a/b using challenge models and safety and dosing studies unless some of that is already done. No doubt this will come to light soon enough. Good news I feel and in the right market as we come out of pandemic into endemicity where a preventer across all resp viruses would be well received. Likely would cover future coronaviruses that may jump out of animals with pandemic potential and buy some time in vulnerable patients prior to vaccine.