Member Info for NathanR999

Just in from a run and been listening to the investing matters podcast, the most recent one has an interview from a guy from ensemble capital and their investment theory and it got me reading across how their model covers see. Basically management, moat and forecastable. During my run I got to the point that SEE.meets this criteria. Moat > the three pillar approach, the mirror deal, asic hard baking and silicon optimisation from.multiple suppliers, many many miles of driving data and multiple markets with some like aftermarket and aviation(although early here) being many years ahead of competition or no current competition. Management > high level access to standard setters, deep.knowledge of auto market, expert in human factors advising government, proactively seeking financial stability with transformational potential of licence deal in very challenging market (I don't buy CFPs take on management) executing well so far in a challenging semiconductor and supply chain crisis. Forecastable > legislation driving mandatory uptake in many markets, future scale predictable and growth predictable as wins translate to future revenue during the 2 to 3 yrs reamp up to SOP.

All in all made me very happy. Worth a listen as then theory can read across to any business and aid investment choice and steady nerves in times of turbulence. GLA

In at 87 in the AIM 100 list. They rate as sell and not convinced on investment case as non profitable until late 2024 and likelyhood of missed opportunity costs by tying up capital in a difficult market rating not profitable companies down. Ho hum.....

If I was PMG and we had a big cash pile say from an aviation licence and maybe had Toyota and another large oem rfq or 2 in the bag and maybe our share price was say 50p. I might be tempted to acquire for Seeingmachines as the research arm builds out some diversity of revenue, marketable data, takes out a competitor, locks up IP from others even if we don't see a use for it. Strip out costs by closing down automotive and using the 2 emotions acquisition to feed anything useful to core see offering. Not sure how that might be seen by oems for future procurements as diversity of suppliers keeps pricing down and keeps eggs in different baskets. I suppose it would depend on how low smarteye drift too as they try to secure funding. Some pointy questions from lenders will be asked and the answers won't be allowed to be bulls****ed. We likely have a strong enough offer not to worry about Smarteye and irrelevant to our trajectory for the next 10yrs.

Hadn't realised how big gentex were. Nrly 6bn usd. Based on what PMG said around multiplier effect of value for Magna mirror business by offering See, the current mcap of smarteye might now be pocket change with decent upside should Gentex acquire. At least might get them in the game, the run rate on cash burn for smarteye is getting to critical point, having seen cashburn be a real issue at shield therapeutics and 4d and causing both an existential threat then it really brings home value of cashflow and raising at right time. We might not all like the dilution over years but we have a company on cusp of something great and now with no near to midterm funding issues and if executes as we believe fully funded beyond cash generation and profitablity using any measure. We just need to wait....

With these types of disruptive tech, you can see why many don't list until profitable or moving to profitable cashflow and stay in vc or pe hands and grow outside of severe scrutiny of quarter by quarter results to the market and then trying to raise money in full view of the market when in this financing mess currently seen worldwide.

Had thought we might see a slight pull back due to several days of rise meaning it might look a little overbought but I am not a chart expert. The big sell of 9+million took a big chunk down - don't think they watched the smarteye car crash tbh ;-)

What price Gentex buying smarteye stake or as a whole as a panic especially if the dms in House under developed.

Just add more cameras......easy really......lol. They Will be lucky if they get 20% of market

My mirror question got asked.....oh dear........lol

Dog ate my homework vibes....

Access to finance to support acquisitions is tough. If I was ceo of cipia and knew of supportive financiers withndecent terms I would would be looking to aquire Smarteye.

Key will be how brave we are on disclosing numbers of cars on road vs the 447k we last disclosed. The cash balance we have is robust, likely to be added to by any aviation deal so it really is a case waiting and believing that the technology, the business administration and the secure funding gets us over the line at significant scale with extensions of existing business and adding in the Toyota, Honda, jaguar , volvo etc etc business to our pot. Having watched the last few quarterly presentations from smarteye, and I say this without besmirching Martin as they have clearly had some success until now, that a change of leadership to someone more able to articulate the vision need for dms/oms is required for Smarteye. As a commercial lead in a company that confidence and deep assurance is so key when pitching your business. Was at the London meeting and PMG had this in spades, and you can see why we landed Magna as cornerstone partner. Very confident for the future.

Not great as I read it and down to roughly 6 to 7 million cash in bank. Lots of mitigation in statements around the results. Discounted fundraise ahoy I reckon.

Done ;-) ?? asked about camera positioning significance and impact on Smarteyes market share forecasts. Also asked about level of capital raise to meet current contract delivery and future business they have bid on. Almost certainly won't be put to Martin. LOL

Announced few more design wins Korean oem https://smarteye.se/investors/press-releases/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-receives-six-additional-driver-monitoring-system-design-wins-with-korean-car-manufacturer

Just in time to get the cap out for the fund raise....

What we need now is, in football terms, some top quality s***housing by announcing Toyota or leading Japanes OEM tomorrow on the day they announce their quarterly results.....

Thanks for responding, I guess if the deal and partnership protects margin and ASP then that should be something shareholders should be pretty happy about as it protects cash flow. Fighting in a race to the bottom just offering software would be less helpful for sure and that might be the fate of some of our competitors that don't have 3 pillars.

PMG has previously mentioned that we were quite critical in design around the optical path design to make the mirror work as this was, as we were told at the townhall, a rate limiting step and hurdle to cross in developing this optimal position for the camera. Might we get more than just the software sale for those taking a magna mirror. Might we get a slice of the mirror sale too? Or do.we see a larger software fee to square this off say 15usd vs 10usd and the fact the mirror already is sunk cost for any vehicle and as Paul mentioned the bill of materials can be manipulated down by choosing the intergated mirror site to get the win for the.mirror,chip,software. Combo sale. Would be interested to hear thoughts on this as the commentary from the company and Semicast/CB kindness implies this.

Having been at the meeting in person and then rewatching today I am beginning to believe that if execution of after manufacture and after market via guardian 3 is successful it will potentially outshine the next few years of auto until the scale in auto has really kicked in. Having a recurring stream of cash from the same unit over 3 to 5 years will really transform profit and free cash. A deal with MAN, Mercedes or Volvo for after manufactur would see fireworks on yearly fitments and even a conservative 2 part upsell of monitoring of 25% success will really make aftermarket fly. I might be daring to dream but...... could we see 150,000-200,000 guardian sales per year and more than 50,000 units (more than our current installed base) connected per year. That will be some fine free cash flow I would have thought. Am I being over optimistic here? I think aftermarket future is being serious underplayed here, maybe because of false starts and delays but what if all the planets finally line up? Did I hear Paul say in House Fleet sales to enterprise was roughly 60 dollars a month or roughly 720 a year. Now based on that I make 500,000 connections roughly gives 400mil revs. All vehicles need dms in eu in 2024 including vans ,light commercial and trucks if newly sold. I guess that figure is more than 500k per year and even a conservative estimate of what gets our solution and a conservative monitoring uptake surely is starting to get to telephone numbers for revenue - what am I missing here? Have I got a decimal in wrong place? No way are we at right price at 6p with balance sheet we have now.post magna.

Smarteye have to raise money to continue to play. If the market thinks their market share is likely to cap out at 20 to 25% or less even then in current market raising the kind of money we have raised the haircut for their existing shareholders could be brutal. If they leave their capital raise too long hoping for better market conditions then any rfq that drops and goes to SEE then their hand gets weaker. Silly games really imho

Thanks for the extra info in this area, many thanks !!