Member Info for NathanR999

Agreed Green, hopefully more news post 19th, orph may take a stake on books even for a temporary period if price does go below cash as cash management opportunity but my feel is it may dip to 3 or 4p for a short period then settle close to where we are now or smidge higher then if news on polb1 positive back above ipo to what level will depend on license or sale terms and timescale to do that. If macro economics become tamer due to Ukraine war stopping, ceasefire or Russian withdrawal then markets may go on a small run, however feel that still.more economy turbulence for 12 to 18 months regardless.

I certainly intend to hold for the long term post lock in - I have 200k shares currently across my SIPP and ISA - I would rather Poolbeg or Orph didnt use money to prop up share price as I feel it will just burn money in short term - longer term if the share were cancelled (and orph wouldnt do that as they would want to see value accrual on their balance sheet) by poolbeg if they held them in their own treasury then having less shares in issue might be beneficial. My selfish view is I would like to see the share hammered below cash to 1p and it stay there for 6 months and I would try to sink regular isa and sipp contributions in here to bolster holding to 1million in each or more if other holdings perform well and reach my exit point or they get acquired freeing further capital - at a penny each you could do very well in a short time - the temptation in current financial circumstances is that many will sell especially PI that got shares free maybe to ensure they can meet maybe family obligations and I respect that fully. I dont think we will hit 1p thou as that would make mcap 5mil and we prob have more cash than that and that would ignore value of assets already in the tin. If I was a high net worth investor and had the capital at 1p I would look to take 10-20% of company at that price - it wouldnt stay at 1p long I feel to allow that. I would prefer JS or other poolbeg team bought at any price post lock in to support share than poolbeg or orph use their money. My view is that on probability alone that 1 of the assets will do at least 2x current market cap in the next few years. That supports at least 10-15p in the medium term imho. Pharma is reasonably risk on so I would expect a few assets to fall by wayside.

Moni, at a loss to explain the Seek approach on their flu and mosquito assets as quite derisked maybe they are trying to fill out early stage pipeline to plump the pillows for a listing. For me if Poolbeg could get the 51% under 5million then yep I could support that especially as Orph would be then likely to merge the total ownership in maybe another vehicle for listing or trade sale. However poolbeg would need to raise more than their market cap to fund the p3 trial needed and not sure most would favour that. The multiplier on the investment overall might not be as good as we think especially if asset ultimately fails or is only average on the performance in p3. My personal preference is that poolbeg maybe uses 5mill for 2-3 earlier stage assets and adds value via doing p1/2 work and then licence or sell on. Multiplier might be better or more reliable with multiple options as some assets will certainly not reach primary goals and get quietly parked or discarded. The vaccine market is full of mRNA new ideas and maybe a level of fashion is at play here. Value will out for imutex/seek but I think it will be less than maybe it should be due to a)general market b) biotech nasdaq being down and some high profile price reversals and less than successful ipos. Focusing on poolbeg the oral vaccine thing could be a great asset and securing candidates for that for me would be a better use of cash.The sequencing data for rsv and flu could also generate few shots on goal. The predictviral biomarker thing could generate license income as I know a lot of disease severity assays are being worked up for devices that can be used in gp surgery or physicans office labs (common in us) and biomarkers are a hot area. These assets for me i would prefer to be focused on as more chance of value addition I feel. Now if polb1 meets expectations and based on my knowledge in this area this asset would have application in sepsis, flu, covid as treatment for worst cases and maybe even long covid. It could get a similar deal to imflamazone. Maybe 100-200 million and earn outs based on milestones. That will add considerable value and cash on books and maybe if seek still haven't done anything then I would see more opportunity for poolbeg acquiring both orphan share and seek maybe outright and doing p3. However a lot would need to line up. Frustrating seeing a high potential asset just parked.

Just skim read the article, fascinating for someone who works in the field - glad hvivo were partnered here. Definitely a challenge model we can extract higher margin for and the moat on this will be wide enough to get a real first mover advantage on challenge study sales.

Moniman, I have mentioned before here that to do a p3 on imutex flu asset is a large capital heavy investment and the data Orph got in p2 by challenge studies does underpin a decent chance of success but there is minimal flu to get the statistical power for efficacy and the will power to do this. Once flu kicks off somewhere around the world at the level of previous years then the spotlight will turn and investment more likely. Frustrating for everyone including those seeking to market a cover all flu vaccine. A large IPO of Conserv/seek with real money being raised is really only way forward or a trade license to a large pharma bit like biontech and pfizer. Great asset at the wrong time. The polb assets in flu and resp virus prevention more likely to fly and get monetised before imutex IMHO. Conserv were looking at corona development and HIV so if they ha e candidates in that area at pre clinical and a p1 and p2 asset in imutex then a decent funding round maybe achieved. Some patience needed - the next 'real' flu season could be brutal and although not pleasant for everyone to.endure it will turn sentiment on flu as disease which historically has killed many many people and will continue to do so with significant risk for younger people in some cases.

Ashb23 the sock puppet account user seems tense. Think you need a spa weekend luv.

Ashb23 - Not sure you are well - please seek help. What do you think is wrong at Poolbeg? - they have literally delivered everything they have said they would pretty much on time and the assets they have secured so far are quite exciting. The company is less than 1 year old with assets that will monetise over next few years - they have cash on the books probably double what they would have got if doing this now if even that would have even been possible due to markets currently. These shares unless you bought on market were free if you held Orph. Sit down, put your big boy pants on and stop whining. These will drop when the unlock occurs and you will whine some more but holding these in 2,3,5 years time you will look back and say a big thank you to CF. If these go below 5 it will be bargain of a lifetime. Hell if they hit 1p and a few of my other shares do well over the next 6 months and these are still down at those levels I might try to TR1 for 3-5% myself cos at 1p and for 120k you could be set for life in 5 years time even if it just got back to IPO price POLB001 and POLB002 if data good could be worth each 4x current market cap. Seriously I dont think investing is for you if you think or want <12 month timescales for action in Pharma is your time horizon for 300% gains.

Ashb23 having epic dolly out of pram moment about a share he doesn't really hold. Nurse the screens......LOL

Finn cap guidance TP of 44p. Stripping out non core and cash show this now has complete value disconnect from share price. You don't get opportunities like this very often on any exchange., this is fill your boots time.

Absolutely and the privileged access to orph data for a finite period as opposed to a pay to play process that everyone else will need to seek either with orph or DIM business arm will likely be repaid in spades as any asset poolbeg finds will like go through a p2 challenge trial if in the rsv/flu space. Orph data but the sequencing and ai will be poolbegs. Same would be if Joe Bloggs Pharmaco paid for access to the samples and data and then did own wizzyness to help solve or provide an asset for their own onward development. Poolbeg just get a few freebies for a limited period.

What's your thoughts here? Not sure how the astra deal is in anyway related. Why would this have anything to with Orph or DIM. Am I missing something.

But still not poneying up answer to my question. Maybe you should log in as orc69... . Please do tell us all what smells. Growing company, massive moat with loads of upside. Have nearly a million shares here with an average of 18.4 p, very relaxed that this is sound and will grow the capital I invested in an outsized way compared to a tracker, ftse 100 investment. Can't think of another aim share I would feel this comfortable in even if slightly under water. I know the Infectious diseases area professionally and orph and polb are excellent ways to access this area and a 5yr view for me will likely mean I can retire in decent wealth.

Ashb23 - what do you think is going on behind closed doors then? What suspicions do you have - do share!!! - surely your concern for fellow investors that you are so frequently guiding us that Open Orphan is so terrible means you should be telling us all right. We need to know? Or is it that you have no clue and just whining about your own decisions - you could have sold way above these levels 6 weeks ago when you appear under multiple aliases - absolute clown car behaviour especially when you forgot to log out of orc69........ all ears and ready to learn what you think is happening behind closed doors that we should all be so concerned about.

*get tested* my fat fingers, apologies!!!! N

I think seek ( now conserv bio) are breadboarding some mrna based vaccine assets. They could then, once they have pre clinical assets, try and list on nasdaq with the imutex p2/p3 ready assets as the makeweight to raise decent money which would fund p3 on flu v, p1 and p2 for mrna corona etc. All IMHO. Would say any thing seek devise as new assets might getbteated by orph at some point.

They may buy the people that made them but existing models would still be saleable by orph. The newco would still be.miles away. For sure new companies can try and disrupt and of course it happens all time, companies acquired to be shutdown if nascent competitor. Another cro could still pounce and buy residual business at large premium to current price. A steal at this price still and good value right to the 26p CF purchases. Get a few covid contracts dropped and game is on. Acquisition in 18months at 40 to 50p ex spinouts would be my prediction geopolitics permitting. Potential for 2 -3 studies from Poolbeg alone in next 24 months . POLB 002 asset Nd if they get into p1 and safety trials then a few more also if they can price them competitively. Cradle to p2a is an exciting package to offer a start up with a new anti infective. Nice business with no endpoint missing anxiety of being the developer of the asset. Long term hold for me or until sold.

General misunderstanding I think from some investors that you can just replicate what orph are doing by lobbing cash at it. I am knowledgeable in the field and have set up and managed microbiology labs responsible for testing and growing viruses. From a standing start you prob would need 6 months to get the.lab side sorted, at least 6 to 12 months work.per model to select strains and grow them to a gmp pharma level with mhra approval to apply to a human. You would need the business reputation in the field to bid for the work and that would only come by doing trials safely. The moat is wide and not crossable by spending money alone, we all.know how long the covid model is taking to get to commercial sellable product for a company with leading expertise here. Now replicate models. Cheaper to buy orphan at 50p a share. The lab equipment alone would be 1 to 2 million to fit out with some bits on a 6 month.lead. safety inspection before operation prob decent lead time too. But yeah let's just set up in a garage like the clown stt1 suggested a while back.
It could be done for sure and i personally would have an idea how to approach but I would be 2 years away and Orph will have more models and more data in that time. If I am gonna spend 100m to get to what orph have now and not get any return for 2 to 3 years then 100m is cheap at 3x price for where orph sits in the scheme of how some infectious disease treatments will be be tested moving forward.

Would prefer investment into a further challenge model to widen the portfolio and opportunity over any buyback.

This ultimately we leave us in a better place to add shareholders value over and above any feelgood factor of a buyback which will be short lived and sold into by traders or those with more short term viewpoints and any uplift might not justify the outlay. Adding in pneumococcal challenge or a gastroenteritis related model would spread portfolio and capture more potential.

To reiterate my previous posts on the imutex ags-v vaccine. It is not a vaccine against the causative agent of malaria, plasmodium species or other insect borne viruses like zika. A challenge study won't work. The vaccine targets mosquito salivary proteins it has two effects. One minimises the ability of mosquito saliva to deliver the pathogen and potentially harms the mosquito to minimise spread. It would likely need a field trial in endemic regions to show efficacy and I would suggest it might partner a more targeted vaccine against the required pathogen. A combination vaccine if you like. More sceptical on this asset as a potential decent prospect. The flu one is the jewel I feel. If the conserv team also have a putative pan corona vaccine for common cold strains, MERS, SARS and SARS cov2 then this would be the time to go to.markets for a raise and float IMHO.

Imutex is a minority holding, phase 3 is needed. this is expensive and would not be happy with poolbeg raising to fund this as minority partner. There is no flu at significant levels to do the p3 without recruiting 100k participants to get the efficacy data. Nobody is gonna go to the market for an ipo in current macro climate. I would accept if pooling bought the 49% for a nominal 2mil and sat on asset in their books but not sure how different that would be to now other than burning 2mil of capital. Prep asset is very similar to one of the poolbeg assets and essentially does same thing . That has had challenge studies done and probably needs moving to p3 again would need many millions or it needs maybe a specific p2 chim on corona for contemporary sales pitch vs more general colds and flu. The prep asset is more preventor with maybe a more limited reduction of infection vs maybe vaccine. Again if poolbeg get for a nominal fee or split of any earnout then maybe but prefer asset being rveresed or ipo and get new market koney as it will need it.