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Overstaffed for sure. I don't disagree with your points but for a lot of their clinical customers they will be stocking and servicing market directly. Direct shipping to hospitals is a nightmare due to paperwork post credit and most procurement departments specify billing and shipping in UK. Launch booth at IBMS conference was way too big and extravagent but this may have been booked and planned prior to acquisition. I can't think who in the UK (and the business is primarily UK by headcount and revs) would shell out for the business. Other distribution companies will be better picking of the companies when distribution deal come up for renegotiation periodically. Coris as a manufacturer could be a gem but eu ivdr rules around new diagnostics increase cost to.market but they could look to contract manufacture for others to sweat there knowledge and capability.
The divestment of dx business is vital tbh. Wasn't really sure of why this was purchased in the first place as margins in distribution aren't even close to.own product manufacturing in this space. The coris purchase I could understand but coris is distributed in the UK and elsewhere via other companies for a long time and extricated of that.may be a challenge and change of ownership doesn't always trigger an exit. Uk dx market is a real challenge and uk isn't reimbursed and I am not sure who would acquire. Hospital market is more and more being.delivered by managed service contracts with large dx companies with UK subs in place already. Looking at ebitda for dx you are going to need to spend a lot as an acquirer to hopefully keep distributions which isn't always possible and for minimal or no profit uplift unless you can renegotiate deals with suppliers or take a hatchet to back office costs and that would take time. Anyone got any.ideas who would be a buyer? Coris products are interesting and they may actually sell higher than acquisition but launch I can't call and I am pessimistic we get our money back. On that grumbly note I will reiterate I am really positive on the pharma and that's all I am hear for. Dx is a distraction we don't need.
Big danger is that when you puff up value you tend to crash on rocks of reality. For all the DMS providers cars in production per quarter and revenue per fitment is king. That will drive share price up or down in some cases. Cumulative business awards mean nothing and Smarteye numbers really suggest that many of the earlier awards never went anywhere and any expansion is fantasy. If they did it would be in the numbers. Nearly all awards before 2021 are likely supported driving only and uptake on that is optional and hence low numbers. The uptake is increasing, more oems offer it and dms via a camera for safety is law for vehicles in eu in 2026. We all want the share price to do well and some just want a false spike to exit - I get that.
Might it be we get bluecruise Adas versions and smarteye get budget end of market for compliance?
Bluecruise might migrate down range and become standard building uptake. Just a thought.
Stt not sure what point are you making here??? Asset looks decent, p2 data looks better than standard of existing care. Ongoing sales per patient over time as disease relapses rather than a one off treatment and done.
The POLB team confirmed the option comes with a small nominal cost but depending on DD what is needed for p3 spend will need some money to run trial but fda have agreed 80% patient aquisition in Turkey where trial costs are way lower than West such as UK and USA where prevalence is lower. Question on shore capital and what that may mean and JS referred to them being involved with amryt listing strategy and capital expansion. Make of that what you will. The guy from silk road ex fda regulatory so a job for him within polb might be very useful. A lot of small pharma struggle with dealings with fda, this guy knows both sides of orphan drug space. Fingers xd all.
A reverse into soligenix to gain a us listing and assets is not a bad shout (without doing a deep dive) at face value. Some interesting assets and one waiting fda decision by looks of it. Mcap is 5ish mill usd. A capital raise for the silk road asset and some working cap to support activity alongside Corp activity could be a decent route into further assets and a better pharma friendly capital market. Any income for POLB001 deals accepted which if that was decent upfront a big dilution would be avoided. Buy and build needs to work.for existing shareholders too. I don't want to be in a billion pound company where I don't see share price uplift each funding round. Mcap isn't everything if share count gets out of hand and long time holders get crumbs.
Excellent balance sheet and fantastic progress. A capital raise I feel will be needed to bring in the silk road asset and that may hold share price back for a month until we know what is needed. I think we need to have expectations of holding this for a good few years to get to that point ofnreal wealth building returns. Regardless of what some here think of cathal friel for those here via the in specie from hvivo and still hold both will certainly see the billion quid of value in total that was mention back in 2020. Investment is about patience and riding the train to the destination. Others may differ and prefer trading to make quicker gains and that's fine too. Gla
Listened to the podcast on my morning run. Very illuminating about JS and his motivations. Very likeable chap and can walk the walk on the science and seems well connected in the space we need to be. Has certainly been involved in DD for acquisiation and been involved in getting a company sold. Definately a bloke I could sit and have a pint with - I think a few here under estimate JS. Pharma deals take time and are unpredictable. See destiny pharma as a prime example. Flavour of the.month and riding high with really good p2 data but struggling to get a decent value deal. Good product but cold space and antibiotics are really tricky to get approved and business model hard for big pharma to stand as antibiotics are designed to work and ideally not be used again as patient gets better so rpt sales rely on new patient. With Cart and bispecific antibodies the space is really hot and will form backbone of cancer therapy for a good few decades. The cart therapy is eye watering in cost even with recent economic savings as these therapies scale. Polb001 could be just the right drug at right time. Pharma investment is tough for those on board and most PI have expectations above reality. Poolbeg in some interesting spaces and I am just hoping in licensing from the ex amryt team of cleared assets that generate income don't cost us too.much dilution
Maybe no more
https://ir.mobileye.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mobileye-wind-down-aftermarket-solutions-unit
I guess this division might be the one linked to guardian distribution?
Would imagine based on their cashflow and funding if they wanted to do dms their best route is via aquisition and Cipia being Israeli and cheap might offer best synergy and design wins already on table. Easier to integrate if backoffice or tech teams in same country. Tobii and smarteye in Sweden, see in Australia etc.
I would suggest that should we win a decent amount via valeo or magna for mirror or other neat solution then some NRE may need to be covered but the mirror route likely means minimal and more magna than us for input. If the share price miraculously goes north on back of breakeven and new contrast then I am not against 30% dilution for aquisition - my pref would be tobii. Stripping headcount and duplicated roles could add wins, tech ip and on road sales at a profitable level. Lot of road to run to get there without hitting any major humps.
market malaise, interest rate reduction likely pushed out. aim grottyness. cash burning currently, lack of news on more contracts. shareholders expectations not matched by share price action.
all out competitors in same boat. smarteye got a bounce based on money raise and some contact awards but way below historic highs. cipia/tobii similar.
some aspects - non off the competition likely to get built into flying in service aircraft anytime soon and type approval for aviation blue/red/black label ain't happening to any other company. if we ain't getting 300 aircraft our competition ain't even got to the long stay carpark. we are in checking que. later this year we are in security queue and then on way to departure lounge.
feel free to compare the kpi data we share actively vs tobii,cipia and smarteye.
there is not enough volume to meet 2026 requirements ts for all cars having camera. if we maintain 40% share then that's 4million per year and 1m per q.
not enough volume awarded for trucks for 2026. non of our competitors offer the data subscription add on.
non of our competitors sell into heavy duty mining.
pr could be better and auto procurement is ****e process.
delays around timescales leads to frustration with share price and management.
would i choose to invest in competitors vs see. no
others may differ and those bleating and moaning are free to sell and preserve capital and have had many months to do this and yet still here holding. cutting losses is investors 101 and those over exposed to a single share again.only have there own selves to be accou table to.
good luck all
one would guess it will depend on when the model went for ****logation and type approval and whether vw are going straight to dms via camera for all trim levels from get go and therefor meet 2026 rules early and again this depends on model refresh timing etc. we then need to p**** is all camera via magna mirror or other solution or are some models as part of mid run refresh maybe getting steering wheel monitor until model replacement in 2026. anything launching in 2026 likely hitting type approval in 2024/2025. the lag from prototype or directional design indications at a car show to showroom sale can be a good while and i would say type approved may happen a while before shakedown of manufacturing in small batch up to full production. where design wins and tier 1/2 contracts sit within that i guess is variable..hence the difficulty in timing announcements for see. the valeo adas/dms solution that has been liked by a few see employees maybe a platform compatible with cipia/see/smarteye in theory but the optical.path may have had input from see engineers and the reality it will run see software but we might not see that disclosed for a while. the mirror with magna can only be us and one would imagine after the 3 year exclusive ends it will renew especially if software and hardware need to work hand in glove. if the magna mirror gets top score in the section needed for euro ncap then maybe more contracts for europe will then decide award. placing a mirror maybe be quicker to integrate than a trim or secondary camera placement so decisons go to wire.
Maybe you should publish on here the kpi performance of all key dms providers to see how meh each of them are. We could compare Cipia, tobii, smarteye and see and hold them all up for review. Any one know the kpi performance of the others or just see.......
There was a message from an ex smarteye senior employee (sales director for automotive) that had moved on to another company asking for Colin to check facts on some of the assumed sop for see. It seems to have been deleted or its disappeared for me. Same person commented on a previous Colin post stating similar around 6 months ago whilst still at Smarteye. Not sure what that means.
With all the moving parts that a tier 1 has to align on camera and illumination can we absolutely define a see dms by illumination pattern. Is there enforceable ip.on illumination pattern or is that likely to be unenforceable in reality. Opacity on sourcing doing my head in!!!
Turnover c20mill in gbp for seye pa. As listed in Sweden most of the sites pull data as SEK as currency so needs a currency conversion to compare.
Seye market cap is 3bil SEK and closer to ours in GBP. C220mil gbp.
Gla
Https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7175850286341619713?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7175850286341619713%29
Check comments from Allen lin.
Shared for context
Interesting comment on the Colin barnden linked in post on IIHMS rating for l2 auto driving and dms. Someone from GM commenting on the GM results suggesting that 2nd generation system uses smarteye. Who knows if just some models, all models, sub brands. Martin on his twitter video shares defo pointed at some GM vehicles on one of his car show/ ces walk rounds. Definitely will be ebb and flow on some of these contracts and relationships as models end and platforms replaced. Hasn't shown too much in their numbers but could this be the underperforming OEM mention on the ImC call last week.