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Market down for Smarteye 5% at open. Still no numbers for cars on road either total or quarterly. Market really needs to give more credit for our transparency on this.
We probably do have this well underway. There are several strands to this. MAGNA likely need dms/oms camera and the alcohol expired breath sensor working togther to prevent spoofing and visual verification of occupants and driver as part of an interlock system. Breath levels can indicate intoxication differently and at different times compared to pupil state, eye mobility and lid drooping for instance. A dms only version maybe neds more data in controlled environment to build model. This isn't going to be done in real world due to nature of the impaired driving. Drug use and different drugs will have different effects on eyes and again needs careful calibration. The PhD and the study referred to in this thread means we are spending or supporting that data and algorithm. We have several.routes to something that isn't mandated yet BUT US may do this and we will be ready. A better feature than some of the mood sensing Smarteye claim for there offer to ensure the spotify playlist cheers you up which is likely to be hoodoo vs measured pupil effects etc.
Would be interested to hear what our estimated experts on how Seeing Machines is going wrong see as the areas Smarteye that lead or surpass SEE in delivery and ability for context and comparison.
Ie auto revenues in USD per year or quarter compared
Cars on road as over Feb 2024 as a total
Numbers of fitments in trucks compared
Current cash position compared and probability of a rights issue
Also would be good if the expert commentary could be extended to Cipia and Tobii if they have time.
What would be market access point for competitors to enter aviation and how would the competition achieve this?
How would competition need to operate to convert their market leading position in aftermarket trucks and commercial into a high value arr model and how much would this cost them
Just for context...
Any numbers for smarteye in the comparable last few quarters? Or tobii? Or cipia?
The two senior team leavers might save a couple of hundred grand with any employers costs too. On a rough rev per fitment of say 6euro could be same as 50kncars on road per year.
Https://www.redeye.se/research/975338/smart-eye-q4-preview?utm_source=note&utm_medium=email¬ificationId=c31a21f3-cf8f-4d93-8379-4ad46a7f75ba
Revised down (not sure they really know) and they gentley have concerns on break even. Suggest the main share holders would rather slow progress and make savings than go through further rights issue.
Our numbers tomorrow and guidance to break even later in year will be key. Any sniff of us raising again and share will crater further. Need some wins to reset the share price higher to hopefully give some cover if a raise does crop.up.
Ultimately all cars will have level 2+ hands free in next 10 years as minimum and at all trim.levels would be my take.
What that means for market share and portability of dms provider over time for individual platforms say bluecruise or suprcruise I have no expertise on that on how that.may work or develop
Veoneer or parts of veoneer were also acquired by Magna. Let's not forget that they could also via wider magna including the veoneer active safety bit say to ford. "That bit you get from veoneer for bluecruise - we can stick this on a mirror and you can deliver bluecruise to more cars cheaper" Sourcing is so.murky and as I have said before SEE is last investment in autotech I ever make.
Or they may not go into production at all.
Would imagine but don't know for sure that Smarteye maybe in lower grade models that don't have bluecruise but need dms for compliance. One can imagine a situation that blue cruise squeezes down the range and become a standard fit but needs subscription to activate. We get paid on fitment. On the basis that bluecruise remains SEE embedded and is critical to function of bluecruise and Smarteye win could deliver ever decreasing volume and a pyrrhic victory at best. However assumptions get people into trouble and the opacity in autosourcing is a nightmare. As colin barnden keeps saying numbers on road is only.metric that matters alongside profitable selling point ultimately a business that generates free cash after all deductions.
Pretty sure I have seen a slide, social shaRe or similar that has suggested 1.3m a good while ago - maybe 6 months??
Might be mistaken but seems plausible
For comparison purposes q4 update for smarteye 21/2
Their agm 13/5 and q1 24 update 14/5
Will be interesting if they nail some numbers down for cars on road. Based on historic rns, tweets and slides seen from smarteye the could be close to 2mil by now if not more depending on how much of Martin Krantz ramp up happens. To give PMG his due SEE will have disclosed 5 quarters- ish of cars on road and guardian fitments to the market and make of that what you will.
It's to work with egle as a direct report to her. In other news of vacancies TLY need a new CFO.......
Https://www.engadget.com/volvo-pauses-deliveries-of-its-ex30-due-to-software-issues-132019346.html
All the new fangled fancy dannery that cars try to do with software might end in tears. So.much software is contingent on playing nicely together that an update might break things and take car off road. Lots of OEMS gonna have to deal with this and consumers just want something that works and does what it is supposed to. Bad enough that car can be off road for a while due to a delayed spare part but an over the air update that bricks your car is going be a Real problem. All the key software running on the central compute playing together might be difficult to manage. A dedicated processor for functions like dms might still be better if not a little more on cost overall. How long will updates stay current? I drive my cars for 8 to 10 years and usually buy 12 months old - are cars gonna get end of life because of software but mechanicals fine??? How wasteful, these new ev with a life of whatever updates are committed to are gonna be soon sustainable....
Enough cash to buy TLY......lol
Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/valeo_making-all-the-right-moves-to-make-roads-activity-7156189895969886209-XsDh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Liked by PMG. Whatever that means. Been doing that a lot recently. Probably nothing.
Headcount reduction to manipulate cost of sales downwards to announce cash flow positive to market? Interesting that the emotion ai side aquisition has led to those associated not sticking around for end game or the ramp up phase as Martin puts it. People leave for all sorts of reasons so who knows? Are we projecting our hopes too much and reading too.much into things as a positive for SEE. Interesting non the less that its this part of their offer that they big up so much that is having people leave.
'Blina' has CRS as a side effect. Blind has taken ages to get to this point. Got acquired in 2012 from a US smaller company and took a further 2/3 years to get FDA to give a break-through accelerated therapy would imagine the data set of eligible patients is quite small.
Timeline to POLB001 being marketed as a licensed therapy are a good while away however for aquisition maybe much shorter but patience is need. A great deal in 18months will be better than an OK deal now. As it stands I would say a small upfront may 10mill and then milestones now but in 12months with.more data.more protection and maybe more use cases for sepsis for instance then that upfront could be a multiples of current mcap or fill on aquisition of all the rights for all uses cases for a lot more. Switch off let it brew and focus on news on other things we have in portfolio that may move forward in 2024.
Was the deputy ceo of smarteye paid in shares or part shares/cash. If shares or mostly shares it will be interesting if she becomes a seller or holds to any end game. Based on share value at aquisition vs now (even with recent appreciation) she is likely to be down on company valuation at time. She was the face of the emotion ai side supposedly their USP now in cabin monitoring. 3 CFOs and the loss of a deputy ceo in 18 months is certainly interesting state of affairs. Martin bangs on about software defined vehicles but VW Cariad business really struggling with that. My view is software defined may fall by wayside due to the inherent issues in any integration of multiple software aspects into a coherent functional package. We see it elsewhere and for the cost and risk is a red flag. Just.my view - find a task,problem and sort that problem/task in the most efficient and cost removed way in the smoothest path possible. I think we are trying to do that and avoid over complicating things. The days of fully autonomous cars and valuations are trashed. Long live supported safe driving. We will get our 40% and we wil do it without slashing our margins. Cheap is road to ruin.