Daily Telegraph3 Dec 2014 07:08
Hold Aberdeen Asset Management as share buyback looms:
Aberdeen Asset Management’s full year results capped an action-packed few months for the company, at least by investment management standards. Last year’s £650 million acquisition of Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) from Lloyds, which made Aberdeen Europe’s biggest asset Manager, was followed by a worrying sell-off in emerging markets during the first half of the year and a “no” vote in September’s Scottish referendum. Amid all this, one of the asset Manager’s biggest investments, Standard Chartered, has continued to see its shares tumble; Aberdeen’s outspoken Boss Martin Gilbert was even driven to publicly back management at the bank, amid questions about its Chief Executive’s future. Shareholders, then, will be relieved that the company’s annual results contained few surprises. Aberdeen’s pretax profits fell 9%, due to the acquisition of SWIP, but on an underlying basis they rose 2% to a record £490.3 million. Mr Gilbert upped the full year dividend by a healthy 12.5%, but this is small fry compared to what could come next. Although the results announcement provided no mention of a share buyback, it is definitely an option, and Mr Gilbert told Questor that Aberdeen will make a decision in the first half of 2015. Barring any dramatic market downturn, there appears to be little reason why the company should not return cash, and the possibility of one should provide support against any downturn in the coming months. On the other hand, there is little about Aberdeen that makes Questor want to recommend buying it. Shares trade at 13 times earnings after a strong run since October’s wobble, and with the Federal Reserve’s money printing programme at an end, the type of growth rates that have seen them double in the last three years are unlikely to return. Aberdeen has ridden out the last year well, and made excellent progress on a good acquisition. With plenty of cash to provide support, as well as a healthy dividend, this is one share worth hanging on to. Aberdeen Asset Management at 457 ½p+7.6p. Questor Says “Hold”.