FT9 Dec 2014 07:17
Songbird: bird in the hand: Shares in the company (which owns 69% of Canary Wharf) were trading at 160p a year ago. Higher? In June the company said its net asset value was 319p. Lower? The Qatar Investment Authority and Brookfield offered 295p per share in November, which was rejected. Higher? A revised valuation last month, compiled independently, put NAV at 381p. Lower? Another estimate of NAV, which adjusts for tax and mark to market valuations of derivatives (so-called triple NAV), stands at 304p. As poor old Brucie pauses for breath, there is only one number that matters. The latest (and final) offer from QIA and Brookfield, a U.S. asset Manager, is 350p. Songbird has not yet given a full response but its initial reaction is sniffy, saying that it does not reflect the full value of the company. The offer is, after all, a discount to the latest 381p NAV, and that NAV does not include any potential profits from a string of developments that Canary Wharf is planning. But put those NAVs to one side. Balance sheet valuations are art as much as science, as the one-fifth jump between the June NAV and the November NAV figures shows. What is more certain is that the cash offer is a 119% premium to where the shares were a year ago. London property is a popular asset class as money pours in from around the world, but it has not doubled in a year. It is far easier to sell on the way up than it is to either time the top of the market, or sell on the way down. The QIA offer looks good.