Daily Telegraph4 Dec 2014 07:14
Avoid Merlin as investors sell: Merlin Entertainments, the Owner of Alton Towers and Madame Tussauds, hailed a “strong performance” in its first year as a publicly traded company.
However, Questor is concerned that growth levels won’t support a punchy share price valuation as private equity backers sell their stakes. The FTSE 250-listed leisure group said that a warm summer and The Lego Movie helped increase revenue across the company. Questor doesn’t think revenue is growing enough; in fact it is showing signs of slowing. The company increased group like-for-like revenue by 6.7% during the third quarter ended September 6, a slowdown from 8.1% like-for-like revenue growth in the first half. Merlin generates its revenue from three key parts of the business: Midway Attractions, which owns Madame Tussauds, London Dungeon and London Eye, makes up 45% of group revenue; Legoland Parks generates 29%; while Resort Theme Parks, such as Alton Towers, Thorpe Park and Warwick Castle, constitutes 26%. Legoland Parks is a global brand in countries such as America, Germany and Asia, and this means that while 40% of total group sales are still U.K.-based, 26% are in Europe, 20% North America and 14% Asia Pacific. Also, while the majority of revenue, 60%, is still outdoors and weather dependent, the rest is now indoors. The Legoland Parks business is growing strongly and reported revenue up 13.8% in the third quarter ended September 6. The largest part of the company, the U.K.-focused Midway Attractions, reported revenue up 3.2%, reversing a first-half fall in revenue. Resort Theme Parks increased revenue at a steady 4.2% during the third quarter, but this slowed from 7.7% like-for-like revenue growth during the first half. The other thing that concerns Questor is that, in addition to slowing revenue growth, cash generation is falling. Money made from operations was down £7 million to £140 million during the first half ended June 28. Once spending on the parks of £104 million and interest payments of £32 million are subtracted, the company only generated £4 million in free cash. There is also a rather large pile of debt. Net debt was £977 million on June 28, more than shareholders’ funds of £960 million. Merlin Entertainments at 381½p+10.4p. Questor Says “Avoid”.